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189
FXUS62 KMHX 290614
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
214 AM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through this evening. The next front
passes late Wednesday night or early Thursday morning.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 0200 Wednesday...Convection has ceased and rain chances
are below mentionable for the remainder of the overnight. Slow
moving cold front is currently located just offshore forecast to
move offshore later this evening, with tstm threat decreasing.
CAA behind the front isn`t forecast to be overly strong, but it
will feel cooler thanks to lowering dewpoints. Given a lack of
stronger post- frontal winds, fairly humid lower levels, and
recent rainfall, have added fog for areas along and E of the
HWY17 corridor.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Tue...Light offshore (NW) flow is expected behind
the fropa, though synoptic flow is quite weak, and by afternoon
local sea/sound/river breezes will dominate. With lack of any
forcing and drier air intrusion with TD`s in the 50s to low 60s,
no precip expected. Highs will be in the mid 80s area wide,
except for the OBX and immediate beaches, which will be in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 0400 Monday...Mostly quiet long term with dry reinforcing
front clearing Wednesday allowing cool high pressure to build
in late week.

Rest of Workweek...Upper trough persists with shortwaves
passing through the base of the trough Wednesday and again on
Thursday with weak SFC trough developing inland behind the
front. This troughing inland will delay the arrival of the SFC
high from the NW, keeping temps fairly warm Wed. Forecast
remains dry through this period save for Thurs night into Friday
when a shortwave aloft sharpens the upper trough that has been
relatively broad over ECONUS. Temps cool end of the week as the
high pressure begins spilling over the area behind a reinforcing
front pushing the inland troughing offshore. MaxTs in upper
70s, MinTs in the 50s.

Weekend...Upper trough will be offshore as ridging builds over
the area through the entire column with SFC high almost directly
overhead Saturday morning pushing offshore the latter half the
weekend.

Early Next Week...Get back to warm and moist Serly flow regime
with the high pressure now offshore and a developing shortwave
approaching from the W leading to increase in cloudiness and
rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 0100 Wednesday...Slow moving cold front has pushed E of
TAF sites and will meander near the coast through the remainder
of the overnight. With calm to light and variable winds, recent
rainfall, and ample moisture in the lower levels lingering
behind the front, expecting patchy fog to develop for coastal
TAF sites through the overnight. Fog seems unlikely for inland
TAF sites due to lower rainfall amts and earlier arrival of
slightly lower Tds behind the front. VFR flight cats return
around sunrise Wednesday with any fog quickly dissipating.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...A drying trend is setting up for the
remainder of the workweek with Thursday night being the
exception.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Wednesday/...
As of 1010 PM Tue...Shra and a couple storms will affect the
waters and sounds through late evening. Latest obs show W-SW
winds 5-10 kt with seas 2-3 ft. For Wed afternoon, local
sea/sound/river breezes will dominate due to weak general winds,
but will be light, less than 10 kt. Seas will be 3 ft or less
through Wed.

LONG TERM /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
As of 0400 Tuesday...SFC trough/reinforcing front approaches
and moves through Wed night, turning winds Nerly for the
remainder of the work week. Seas generally falling through the
week; 2-4ft Tues, 2-3ft Wed, 1-3ft late week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL/CEB
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...CEB/RCF
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...CQD/TL/CEB