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333
FXUS61 KOKX 272351
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
751 PM EDT Mon May 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will moves through the area tonight. A series of
reinforcing cold fronts will then move across the area during the
middle of the week. High pressure builds in Friday into the upcoming
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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Key messages on diminishing shower/thunderstorm threat tonight:

* Localized severe and flash flood threat has ended.

* SVR TSTM Watch 333 cancelled for NYC, LoHud, and NE NJ.
  Scattered convection ahead of pre-frontal trough/approaching
  shortwave across eastern PA. Increasing effective shear and
  instability should allow for some strengthening through 9pm,
  but even if so, expecting a gradual weakening as the activity
  enters western portions towards 10pm as surface instability
  wanes. Isolated to scattered storms with strong wind gusts
  and small hail possible west of the Hudson River through
  around 11pm.

* Scattered convective coverage and storm weakening signaling a
  scattered minor urban/poor drainage flood threat end from
  west to east between 10pm and 1am.

* Conditions will dry out from west to east after midnight.

Shortwave approaches by midnight, with pre-frontal trough
pushing through the region and shunting deep moisture and lift
eastward. Improving conditions from west to east between 10pm
and 2am.

Unseasonably mild and muggy night with low in the lower to mid 60s,
and Td`s similar. Fog development likely across outlying areas late
tonight with light winds and moist low-levels. Could be locally
dense.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Mean troughing continues across the region Tuesday, with initial
shortwave exiting east late tonight and broad trough approaching Tue
afternoon into Tue night.

Atmosphere dries out significantly behind the initial shortwave
and exiting cold front late tonight into Tue AM. A couple of
weak cold fronts moves through the region Tuesday AM and PM.
With limited moisture and W/SW flow, expecting dry conditions
and only scattered aft cu. Gusty offshore flow (25 to 30 mph),
deep mixing, and gradual CAA should allow for temps to rise into
the lower to mid 80s for much of the area. Have leaned towards
NBM ensemble 50th percentile w/ favorable synoptic setup for
heating and NBM deterministic lying near the 25th percentile.

Low pressure continues to track across New England Tuesday night
dragging a PM weak front across the area. Unseasonably mild
conditions continue Tue Night in weak offshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough remains over the region to start to the
long term with an mid level shortwave moving across the region
on Thursday.

There continue to be differences with the progression of
shortwave energy within the upper trough. The GFS continues to
be more progressive with this feature, while the ECMWF has
remained fairly consistent with a slower, stronger system. The
latter of which reflects a surface low to the south of the area,
For now, will continue to carry just some chance POPS during
this period. Expecting at least a chance of showers areawide
Wednesday night into Thursday. Confidence remains somewhat low
during this time. The shortwave moves away from the region
Thursday night with drier air moving into the area.

Attention then turns to the upper trough closing off just
offshore on Friday. There clearly has been an eastward progression
of this low, which in turn leads to a mainly dry forecast with
surface high pressure building into the area over the weekend.
There are then timing issues with a frontal system progressing
from the west which could bring showers into the region next
Sunday. Right now, expecting a mainly dry weekend. A better
chance of showers returns on Monday.

Highs in the long term will generally remain in the 70s each day,
with the warmest of the day Sunday and Monday, where a few
locations may come close to 80 west of NYC.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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A frontal system moves through tonight and offshore on Tue.

Conditions lowering to LIFR tngt across most of the area due to
fog and low CIGs. Sct shwrs with perhaps isold tstms thru 6Z,
then improvement to VFR toward 12-15Z Tue. VFR then for the rest
of the TAF period.

SE flow this eve, strongest JFK. Winds speeds lower to 10 kt or
less thru 3-6Z, then become more SW-W into early Tuesday
morning. Blustery on Tuesday, speeds increase toward 15G25kt
much of the day, generally out of the west. Winds decrease
significantly aft 00Z Wed.

   NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

An isold tstm is possible thru 3-6Z, although the prob and
coverage too low to include in the TAF.

Amendments possible for changing flight categories thru 6Z.

OUTLOOK FOR 00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Light WNW flow.

Wednesday and Thursday: Late Night/AM MVFR/IFR stratus/fog
potential. Otherwise VFR, with chance of aftn SHRA/TSRA.

Friday and Saturday: VFR. Light NW flow.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&&

.MARINE...
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Showers and embedded tstms will moves across the water through
around 2 am. Improving cond from west to east thereafter.

SCA S/SE flow will fall below after the pre-frontal trough passage
and strongest flow pushes east by around 06z. However, seas are
likely to build to around 5 ft into tonight. The SCA continues for
the central and eastern ocean waters into Tuesday evening.

Conditions should then fall below SCA levels Tue Night. Winds and
seas will generally remain below SCA criteria for the middle and end
of the week.
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&&

.HYDROLOGY...
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Scattered convective coverage and storm weakening signaling a
scattered minor urban/poor drainage flood threat ending from
west to east between 11pm and 1am.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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A moderate rip current risk continues on Tuesday due to 3 to 4 ft
seas continuing on the ocean, and Wednesday with 2 to 3 ft from
a mix of Se and S swells. This is supported by the latest RCMOS.

Water levels will approach minor flood thresholds, but likely
remain just shy, with tonight`s high tide cycle along the south
shore bays of Nassau County. Heaviest rain appears to occur
before the time of high tide, which will limit any compound
flood impacts.
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&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ332-338-
     340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ355.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/NV
NEAR TERM...NV
SHORT TERM...NV
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JMC/DR
MARINE...BC/NV
HYDROLOGY...BC/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV