-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
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FXUS65 KPUB 260529
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1129 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- - Warm and dry today and tomorrow, with some isolated showers and
storms possible.

- Snow will spread over the peaks of the central mountains,
  lasting through tomorrow morning.

- Warming trend through Thursday, with increasing chances for
stronger storms across the far eastern plains Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 842 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Have allowed the Red Flag Warning in effect to expire this past
hour as conditions continue to improve. While winds will likely
remain gusty this evening, RH values will continue to improve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

A broad trough is passing through our region aloft, bringing in some
mid-level moisture and some synoptic lift. Gusty winds and
increasing clouds will continue through the rest of the afternoon
and evening, leading to continued meteorological fire weather
conditions across large portions of the area. Additionally, isolated
showers have already started popping up across some of our mountain
peaks, and are expected to slowly propagate east later this evening.
Some of the high-res models do have some isolated thunderstorm
activity later this evening over the Pikes Peak Region, but even if
a storm or two does manage to form, coverage and precipitation
should be minimal and the storms would be short-lived.

Tonight into tomorrow, a weak front will push south across the
plains as the upper trough moves past, knocking Sunday`s high
temperatures down 5-10 degrees. Additionally, breezy northwest flow
will set in aloft and advect in more dry air. This will lead to
continued critical fire weather conditions for much of the area,
though fuels remain sub-critical for everywhere except parts of our
southeast mountains. Meanwhile, Snow showers will continue across
the peaks of the central mountains, dropping 3-5 inches of new snow
accumulation. Otherwise, our forecast area should remain largely dry
tomorrow, with the low-end chance for isolated thunderstorm activity
over the Palmer Divide during the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

Sunday night and Monday...Lighter northwest flow aloft will keep
drier air in place across CO during the evening, then a ridge of
high pressure begins to strengthen over the Four Corners and Great
Basin regions during the day Monday. Plan on very isolated
convection across the higher terrain during the afternoon, then
pushing east across the plains Mon evening. Plan on high temps Mon
in the 70s for the high valleys, and upper 70s to upper 80s for the
plains.

Tuesday...Upper ridge gradually pushes east across CO and the
Rockies on Tue, while another Pac low pressure system begins to
gather strength over the Pacific NW. Southerly surface winds and
moisture advection will lead to isolated to scattered shower and
storm development across the eastern mts and plains by mid-afternoon
and lasting into the evening, with the stronger storms closer to the
eastern border. High temps will warm into the mid 70s for the high
valleys, and upper 70s to near 90F for the plains.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper ridge axis pushes east to the
eastern CO border on Wed, then into the central plains of the US on
Thu. Meanwhile, the Pacific NW low pressure system wraps up and
slides east along the US and Canada border, reaching MT Thu
morning.Both days will see an increase in precipitation and
thunderstorm chances across much of the area, with a greater chance
for strong thunderstorms for the far eastern plains. These two days
will also be the warmest days of the extended period, with maximum
temps pushing close to 80F for the high valleys, and near 90F for
the plains. A weak cold front is expected to drop south across the
Palmer Divide late Thu night, ushering in slightly cooler temps for
the weekend.

Friday and Saturday...Slightly cooler both days with weaker westerly
flow aloft across the region as the northerly low system pushes east
into the Great Lakes. There will still be enough available moisture
for a daily shot of isolated to low-end scattered convection for the
higher terrain and adjacent plains each afternoon and evening.
Moore

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds will remain light overnight, but low level wind shear
will develop over both TAF sites overnight and eventually end during
the early morning hours. Winds tomorrow will slowly increase during
the day, with the strongest winds anticipated during the afternoon
hours. Otherwise dry conditions with periods of mid to high level
clouds are expected through this TAF period.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light
winds are anticipated overnight, with winds increasing tomorrow
afternoon. Otherwise dry conditions with periods of mid level clouds
are expected through this TAF period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH/SIMCOE