Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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286 FXUS65 KPUB 302325 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 525 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms will continue through the evening, with a few severe over the eastern plains. Main threat with severe storms will be hail, possibly up to 2 inches in diameter, and strong outflow winds up to 70 mph. - Scattered thunderstorms will develop over the mountains tomorrow afternoon (mainly over the eastern mountains) and then move over the plains. A few could be strong to severe. - Strong to severe storms will possible on Friday evening and again Saturday afternoon/evening across southeast Colorado. - Warmer and drier weather remains on tap for the end of the weekend into at the middle of next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Detailed discussion: Currently and through tonight... Latest CAMs continue to show progression of a developed MCS right over the most southeastern corner of Colorado that expands southeastward and forces back an outflow towards the northwest. This will allow for an increase of low-level southeasterly flow and moisture advection, with increasing dewpoints (approaching 60F in some areas) extending up into the lower Arkansas River Valley by later in the evening. At the same time, upsloping winds and a conditionally unstable environment, which will help to initiate convection over the Pikes Peak Region (PPR) and Ramparts, which will move off towards the east with mid-level westerly winds in place. This will eventually interact with the outflow boundary moving up from the southeast to help intensify the convection as it continues to move southeastward and over Kiowa County, or possibly further south if the NAMNest verifies. The combination with the convergence and conditionally unstable environment becoming more unstable as will likely cause these storms to become severe. The only caveat is that shear will be lacking where the brunt of the convection will be, with better values further south over the far southeastern plains, and also that there is currently a fair amount of CIN (capping) which may inhibit intensification. The HRRR still has storms merging into nearly a QLCS formation as they make their way towards the CO/KS border. The NAMNest is similar, but further south. If this comes to fruition, this will mainly become a strong wind threat, basically from Eads to Lamar if the HRRR resolves this better, and possibly have some landspouts occur. Although there are some other high res guidance which suggests that some of these storms will be more discrete. As the evening progresses, we will continue to monitor the environment on SPC and determine if this outflow and the timing will be efficient for further development and the threat of severe thunderstorms over the far eastern plains. Some of the storms will be capable of producing hail of possibly up to 2 inches in diameter, as well as strong and gusty outflow winds that could reach up to 70 mph, especially if storms merge and become organized into a linear (QLCS) pattern. These storms will continue to move off throughout the early morning hours tomorrow, and should be clear of the CWA by around to 3 to 4 AM. From there, skies will continue to clear, with temperatures dropping down into the low to mid 50s across the plains, and generally in the 30s and 40s for high country. Tomorrow... As the U/L trough remains to the north and keeps westerly mid-level flow in place over the region, along with some recycled moisture and orographic lifting, thunderstorms will develop again over the mountains (mainly over the eastern mountains where there will be better instability). With the steering flow, these storms will eventually come off the mountains and over into the plains where there will be better instability and shear, and have a possibility of becoming severe again, especially as they continue to move further to the east. That being said, overall there will not be as much instability tomorrow as there was today, so perhaps the hail will not be as large and wind gusts not as strong. It will also be overall a little more stable on the plains with cooler temps, which will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler from where they were today. -Stewey && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 250 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Friday night-Saturday night...West to southwest flow aloft remains progged across the region as a shortwave trough translates across across the Intermountain West and into the Northern Rockies by Saturday night. The progged increased flow aloft (shear), combined with enhanced low level moisture within south to southeast low level return flow across the southeast Colorado Plains, will lead to the potential for strong to severe storms across southeast Colorado both Friday evening and again Saturday afternoon and evening. Specifics on the amount on of instability and shear profiles will depend on previous days convective debris and outflows, however, SPC Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks still indicate a marginal to slight risk of severe storms, producing large hail and damaging winds, across most of eastern Colorado. Further west, some uvv ahead of said wave could produce some high based -shra/-trsa west of the Front Range, with main threats being gusty outflow winds, with inverted v profiles. Sunday-Monday...Moderate west to southwest flow across the region Sunday becomes more northwest Sunday night into Monday, as shortwave trough translates across the Northern Rockies and into the Upper Midwest. Latest models continue to indicate a dryline pushing east into western Kansas Sunday afternoon, with expected breezy and warm westerly flow pushing into eastern Colorado, with highs pushing into the mid 80s to mid 90s across the plains, and mainly 60s and 70s across the higher terrain. Dry and breezy conditions will create enhanced fire danger, however, current fuel status remains non critical areawide. Passing wave send a week front across the area Sunday night into Monday morning, however, temperatures to remain generally above seasonal levels on Monday. Tuesday-Thursday...While models differ on the timing of the upper level ridging building across across the Rockies, generally warm and dry conditions remain progged across the area into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 522 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 KALS...VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening across the San Luis Valley. The main concerns will be gusty outflow winds at the terminal Friday afternoon. KCOS and KPUB...a shower may be possible at KCOS this evening, but confidence in occurrence is low. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through much of the period. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast for Friday afternoon and evening. KCOS looks to see the best chances of seeing thunderstorms on Friday. Mozley
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&& .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...STEWARD LONG TERM...MW AVIATION...MOZLEY