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FXUS65 KPUB 270001
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
601 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Generally dry and quiet today and tomorrow.

- Gusty northwest winds this afternoon will cause some fire
  weather concerns. No highlights needed at this time.

- Warming trend through Thursday, with increasing chances for stronger
  storms across the far eastern plains Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Cooler temperatures expected for Friday, then warming and
  drying trend for the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Today will be dry and relatively quiet, weather-wise. Breezy
northwest flow will continue aloft behind the departure of
yesterday`s upper trough, leading to continued critical fire weather
conditions across parts of the area. However, fuels are still non-
critical in impacted areas, so no fire weather highlights are needed
today. Otherwise, no precipitation is expected across the CWA today
or tonight, with high temperatures in the 80s over most of the
plains and 70s across the higher terrain, Palmer Divide, and the
mountain passes.

For Monday, the area will warm as an upper-level ridge begins to
build in overhead. High temperatures will increase into the mid-high
80s over the plains and mid-70s elsewhere. Meanwhile, winds will
weaken under the incoming high pressure, and though humidity will
still be low this should give us a break from critical fire weather
concerns. Models do show a hint of mid-level energy translating
through the upper flow, meaning that isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity will be possible, first over the mountain
peaks and later over the southeast plains, however the airmass looks
dry and chances of this occuring are low. If a storm does manage to
form, gusty outflow and some small hail would be the primary
concerns. Leaving isolated POPs in the forecast for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 226 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Monday night and Tuesday...Upper ridge gradually pushes east from
the Four Corners, across CO and the Rockies Mon night through Tue,
while another Pac low pressure system begins to gather strength and
pushes onshore across the Pacific NW. Plan on very isolated
convection across the higher terrain and eastern plains Mon evening,
with very isolated activity lingering along the CO and KS border
late. Southerly surface winds and moisture advection on Tue will
lead to scattered shower and storm development across the eastern
mts and plains by mid-afternoon and lasting into the evening. The
NAM is indicating 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-45 kts across the eastern
plains, as well as CAPE climbing into the 1500-2000 j/kg range, so
stronger storms closer to the eastern border will be possible. Low
temps Mon night are forecast to cool into the mid 30s to lower 40s
for the high valleys, and mid 40s to lower 50s for the plains. High
temps will warm into the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to
mid 80s for the plains.

Wednesday and Thursday...The upper ridge axis pushes east to the
eastern CO border on Wed, then into the mid-Mississippi River Valley
on Thu. Meanwhile, the Pacific NW low pressure system wraps up and
slides east along the US and Canada border, reaching MT Thu morning.
One difference from previous days, though, is that the low centroid
is now much more located within Canada. Both days will see an
increased probability for precipitation and convection, though Wed
will be very similar to Tue, with a lingering dryline and abundant
llvl moisture along the far eastern plains. Model CAPE of 1500-2000
j/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of around 40 kts will once again spark a
greater chance for stronger thunderstorms near the KS border late
Wed aftn into the evening. Expect scattered convection Wed, then
isolated to low-end scattered activity for Thu. High temps will warm
into the 70s to near 80F for the high valleys both days, while the
plains will see mid 70s to mid 80s on Wed and 80s to around 90F on
Thu. A weak cold front is expected to drop south across the Palmer
Divide late Thu night.

Friday...Slightly cooler due to the frontal passage the night
before, but a quick-moving upper disturbance crossing the Rockies on
Fri will once again prompt widespread isolated to scattered
convection across the forecast area during the afternoon and
evening. While temps across the high valleys will remain nearly the
same with readings in the 70s, the plains will cool by about 10
degrees compared to the day before, with highs in 70s to near 80F.

Saturday...Broad ridge of high pressure attempts to rebuild
across the Desert Southwest over the weekend, with just isolated
convection expected for Sat. Plan on temperatures to start
warming once again, nearing 80F for the high valleys and 90F for
the plains by Sunday. Moore

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 556 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions and mainly dry weather expected this forecast
period. The gustier winds which have been in place this
afternoon will continue early this period, but will see winds
quickly diminish during the evening hours. Then expect lighter
and more diurnally driven winds for the remainder of the period.
There is a low chance for isolated shower and thunderstorm
development Monday afternoon but with chances low at this time,
have opted to keep the TAFs dry. Later forecasts will need to
assess the need to include at least a VCSH.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ