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498
FXUS65 KPUB 260908
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
308 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Cooler, dry and breezy Today.

- Isolated high based storms possible Monday.

- Increasing chances for storms, some strong to severe, across
  southeast Colorado through the middle of the work week.

- Cooler Friday into the early weekend with more widespread
  storms possible Friday.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Currently

A cool front was pushing across the region early this AM as seen by
3 hr pressure change chart and increasing dwpt values behind the
boundary. Water vapor shows a small but robust small circulation
center pushing E-SE across the central mtn region. Overall variable
high to mid level cloudiness was over parts of the region, especially
western and northern sections. Some light.showers were noted over
the northern mtn region and front range, and over east central CO.

Today...

SOme early morning light showers will be possible over the central
mtns, parts of the Pikes Peak region and over the northern sections
of the southeast plains (i.e., Kiowa county) as the weak piece of
energy over the central mtns pushes east-southeast. Otherwise expect
a mostly sunny day with breezy N-NW surface wind flow over the
region today. Most areas will see winds generally in the 15 to 25
mph range, however stronger speeds will be felt in the mtns, and the
Southern Collegiate range and northern Sangres, where gusts to 50
mph will be possible at times.

Temps will be a few degrees cooler than yesterdays highs, with max
temps on the plains expected to be in the 70s across N El Paso
county to mid 80s across the lower Ark rvr valley. The larger
valleys should see temps in the U60s to L70s with mtns in the 50s
and 60s.

Tonight...

Clear with light diurnal wind flow anticipated. Lows will be in the
M40s across the plains and M30s over the larger valleys. /Hodanish
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&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 305 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Memorial Day-Monday night...Generally weak and dry west to northwest
flow aloft remains progged across the region for Memorial Day into
Monday night, with latest model data continuing to indicate steep
mid level lapse rates and some modest instability (cape <500 j/kg)
leading the potential for generally isolated showers and storms over
the higher terrain Monday afternoon, with a few possible storms
pushing out across the southeast Plains into Monday evening. Soundings
support high based convection with inverted v profiles suggesting the
main threat from storms being gusty outflow winds. Memorial Day
temperatures look to warm back to at and slightly above seasonal levels
in mid 70s to mid 80s across the Plains, and mainly in the 50s and 60s
across the higher terrain.

Tuesday-Wednesday...Upper level ridging building across the Rockies
will keep weak west to southwest flow aloft in place across the region
through the middle of the work week. With continued steep lapse rates
and expected increasing low level moisture within south to southeast
low level flow leads to good chances of afternoon showers and storms
across the eastern mtns and plains both Tuesday and Wednesday. With
moderate instability and just enough shear, there could be strong
to severe storms, with large hail and damaging winds being the main
threats if storms can develop. Temperatures through mid week are
expected to remain at to slightly above seasonal levels, with some
fluctuation across the plains dependent on the amount of low level
moisture return and convection.

Thursday-Sunday...By Thursday, latest models continue to indicate a
stronger system moving across the Rockies with the potential for stronger
storms along a dryline pushing east across the plains. Downslope ahead of
this system will help boost high temperatures some 5-10F above seasonal
levels, before the passing systems cold front brings better chances of
more widespread precipitation, storms and colder temperatures on Friday.
Warmer and drier weather then looks to return for next weekend.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1129 PM MDT Sat May 25 2024

KCOS and KPUB: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Surface winds will remain light overnight, but low level wind shear
will develop over both TAF sites overnight and eventually end during
the early morning hours. Winds tomorrow will slowly increase during
the day, with the strongest winds anticipated during the afternoon
hours. Otherwise dry conditions with periods of mid to high level
clouds are expected through this TAF period.

KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Light
winds are anticipated overnight, with winds increasing tomorrow
afternoon. Otherwise dry conditions with periods of mid level clouds
are expected through this TAF period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH/SIMCOE