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054
FXUS65 KPUB 242047
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Dry, hot, and windy tomorrow. Critical fire weather conditions
  expected over parts of the area.

- Some shower and thunderstorm activity is possible tomorrow afternoon
  over portions of the higher terrain.

- Warming trend for the upcoming work week, with increasing
  chances for stronger storms across the far eastern plains.
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.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

With the last upper wave already past our area, zonal flow and
relatively cool air remain in place across the area today. A few
isolated afternoon showers and storms may be possible over the
higher terrain and the Pikes Peak Region late this afternoon into
evening, but chances remain low at this time. Any storms would be
short-lived and high-based.

For tomorrow, a new upper-level trough will begin to approach our
area. West-southwest flow will increase across the area, mixing down
towards the surface while high temperatures noticeably increase into
the high-80s over the plains. As such, meteorological fire weather
conditions will be prevalent across most of the area tomorrow
afternoon. However, fuels are still non-critical, a bit too green,
outside of areas around our southeast mountains, so that will be the
only area warranting a highlight for tomorrow. Meanwhile, the
incoming upper trough will bring in some additional mid-level
moisture and synoptic lift, allowing for some shower and
thunderstorm activity late tomorrow afternoon. This activity will be
focused across the peaks of the Central Mountains initially, with a
lower chance for some isolated to scattered storms over the Pikes
Peak Region and the Palmer Divide. Conditions are expected to be too
dry elsewhere for any sustained precipitation.
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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

Saturday night through Sunday...Broad upper trough crossing the
Rockies Sat night will bring a good shot of pcpn along the
Continental Divide and isolated convection to the Pikes Peak region
through the evening. The northern half of the state will see the
most activity out of this upper feature Sat night, but the peaks of
the central mts may see 2 to 4 inches of new snow overnight. Trough
axis passage overnight will allow dry northwest flow aloft to settle
in. This will also lead to a cold front dropping south across the
Palmer Divide overnight into Sunday morning, which in turn will mean
slightly cooler temps for the area on Sunday. Only isolated
convection is anticipated Sunday afternoon across the Pikes Peak
region and the peaks of the central mts and the northern Sangres. As
for temps, plan on readings right at seasonal normals for this time
of year with mid 60s to around 70F for the high valleys, and lower
70s to lower 80s for the plains.

Monday through Wednesday...An upper ridge of high pressure will
develop across the Great Basin and Rocky Mt regions starting Mon,
which will gradually push east across CO and the Rockies through
midweek. Isolated convection over the higher terrain Mon, will
transition to more widespread isolated to scattered activity on Tue,
then scattered storm activity on Wed with stronger storms developing
along the dryline interaction near the eastern border. Plan on
normal to slightly above normal temps all three days, with highs in
the 70s for the high valleys, and mid 70s to mid 80s on Mon for the
plains then climbing into the 80s for Tue and Wed.

Thursday and Friday...Another Pacific low pressure system will
strengthen over the Pacific NW Thu, then push east across the
Intermountain West through Fri. This northern trough will produce
increasing southwest flow across the Four Corners region, keeping
temps above seasonal norms and isolated to scattered convection
across the area each afternoon and evening. Stronger storms will be
a possibility along the eastern border. Moore
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&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
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Issued at 243 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected at KALS, KCOS, and KPUB through 24
hours, with gusty winds this afternoon to around 25 knots. Mid level
clouds will increase at all three sites through the afternoon and
into the overnight hours. There also exists a lower-end chance for a
few showers and thunderstorms near KCOS this afternoon, but
confidence is still too low to include in the TAF at this time.
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.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Saturday for COZ225.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...GARBEROGLIO