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945
FXUS65 KPUB 232125
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
325 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Cold front moving through the plains tonight will lead to
cooler/less windy conditions east of the mountains on Friday.

- Critical fire weather conditions persist through the weekend. Some
scattered shower & storm activity will be possible.

- Warming continues into next week with mostly dry conditions.
  Chances for storms will increase by Tuesday over the eastern
  plains.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Issued at 323 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Breezy to windy across much of the area today, as lee surface trough
deepens on the plains in response to upper wave moving through the
central Rockies. Have seen gusts in 30-40 mph range at times across
lower elevations, while higher mountains have seen some gusts 40-50
mph, especially higher passes near the Continental Divide. Dry air
mass has kept convection and even convective cloudiness surpressed
today, though srn end of the upper wave has begun to generate some
mid-level clouds over the central mountains as of mid-afternoon. For
tonight, will keep Red Flag Warning going until expiration at 9 pm,
as winds remain strong until shortly after sunset. Suppose some high
based convection could reach the central mountains this evening as
upward motion increases, though coverage/strength look rather
sparse/weak given dry low levels. AS wave ejects eastward overnight,
cold front drops south through the plains, bringing a period of
gusty north winds to areas mainly east of I-25 into early Friday
morning. Some concern about frost near the crest of the Palmer
Divide is winds can diminish quick enough, though won`t issue a
highlight at this point given rather small area of near freezing
temps currently forecast.

On Friday, cooler and less windy on the plains in the wake of the
cold front, with a slightly more moist air mass in place as well.
While there will be an increase in convective cloudiness in the
afternoon, it deoes`t appear we`ll have enough instability for much
in the way of thunderstorm activity, and will keep any pops confined
to the central mountains and higher terrain around Pikes Peak. Given
cooler air and easterly flow over the lower east slopes of the
Sangres/Wets until late afternoon, have canceled the Fire Weather
Watch for these areas, as strong winds/drier air will stay over
higher elevations of the fire weather zone. Max temps over the
eastern mountains and on the plains will cool some 5-15 degf, while
readings farther west over the mountains will stay relatively
unchanged.
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&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 323 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

Saturday-Sunday...

Warm and mostly dry conditions will persist across the area on
Saturday, with breezy southwest flow aloft just ahead of an incoming
upper trough. High temperatures will increase a bit from Friday,
with 80s across most of the plains and high-60s to mid-70s over the
high valleys and the Palmer. Some areas over the far southeast
plains may hit 90, depending on the strength of southerly surface
flow early on in the day. As the upper trough moves in, lee
cyclogenesis at the surface will push warmer air to the east while
scattered showers and storms initiate over the Central Mountains.
Precipitation mode should be largely dependent on temperatures, but
in general the peaks of the higher mountains should be seeing light
snowfall. Meteorological critical fire weather conditions will once
again be possible across most of the eastern plains and parts of the
San Luis Valley, but very few of the fuels are critical at this
time, so highlights will be limited to the areas around our
southeast mountains. Towards Saturday evening, the trough axis will
move across our area, driving a cold front south across the plains
and giving us a brief chance of stronger surface winds and some
isolated to scattered convection, though most of the better air will
be north of our forecast area.

Sunday will be a few degrees cooler and slightly more windy as a
secondary lobe of energy translates through the area within the
upper trough. Critical fire weather conditions will persist, mainly
over the southern half of our CWA, and high temperatures will
largely be in the 70s-80s. Late in the day into evening, the passing
energy will send a weak secondary frontal surge south across the
plains, leading to slightly higher chances of showers and storms
north of highway 50. Currently this is a bit too far out to get
finely resolved details of convective chances, but low-level
convergence and forecasted humidity/CAPE values hit at the chance
for a few high-based thunderstorms. Additionally, deterministic
model guidance is still disagreeing on the speed and track of this
secondary wave. Current runs of the GFS and Canadian have a bit of a
slower progression with slightly higher precipitation chances, while
the EC kicks the wave through a bit faster.

Monday Onwards...

The area will continue to warm as we move into next week, with an
upper-level ridge starting to build in overhead. Monday looks dry
aside from some isolated mountain showers in the afternoon, though
winds should be light enough to avoid any widespread fire weather
concerns. Looking to Tuesday into the middle of the work week, some
mid-level moisture advection could increase thunderstorm chances
across the plains during the afternoon hours, which could be
enhanced by potential dryline formation near the CO-KS border. Will
have to see how models resolve this possibility in the coming days.
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&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 323 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024

VFR at all taf sites the next 24 hrs, with strong w-sw winds
gusting 25-35 kts this afternoon/early evening. Overnight,
winds diminish at KALS, while at KPUB and KCOS a cold front will
turn winds more nly after 04z-05z, with some gusts to 30 kts
possible until 12z. Gusty winds again expected Fri at KALS,
light winds at KCOS and KPUB.
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&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for COZ225.
Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
evening for COZ225.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...PETERSEN