-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
396
FXUS62 KRAH 021031
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
631 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper trough crossing the region will provide some cloudiness and
widely scattered light showers today and tonight.  Otherwise, look
for a warmer temperatures, more humidity, and increasing chances for
daytime shower and thunderstorm activity as we head through the
first half of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 317 AM Sunday...

A ridge axis is currently situated along the East Coast while a
broad trough extends from the Ohio Valley south across the TN Valley
and Southern Appalachians.  Regional radar shows scattered showers
under and just east of the aforementioned trough, but still to our
west. This pattern will shift east throughout the day, with the
trough axis crossing our CWA overnight tonight.  Meanwhile, this
past evening`s GSO sounding still showed abundant dry air below H4,
and the latest mesoanalysis also shows lingering dry air by way of
pwat less than 3/4 inch over our entire CWA.  As such, the initial
shower activity over the western portions of the state should
diminish as they move east.  Should any of this shower activity
reach our western and Triad zones by later this morning, any such
activity should be very light.  Nevertheless, am still inclined to
carry slight chance PoPs through the day across the western third of
our CWA.

S/SW flow should gradually increase moisture across our area as the
day progresses, thus will expand the slight chance PoPs across the
rest of our CWA by this evening and for tonight in conjunction with
the aforementioned trough crossing our CWA.

Highs today will be similar to, or perhaps a degree or two warmer
than yesterday... low-mid 80s.  Lows tonight in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 317 AM Sunday...

NW flow will persist over the Carolinas given a s/w ridge axis to
west and a trough axis to our east. Meanwhile, a backdoor front over
VA will gradually drift south toward our area.  Low level
convergence along and ahead of the aforementioned front, along with
convergence invof of the Piedmont trough, may provide enough forcing
for widely scattered late-afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Will maintain low-chance PoPs for this time, along
with highs in the mid 80s.  Lows Monday night in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 317 AM Sunday...

The extended forecast continues to show an unsettled pattern, with
Saturday the only day with high confidence of dry conditions.
Perhaps the most difficult aspect of the long term forecast is that
the strongest features, a surface low and upper level low, should
primarily remain over Canada. Weaker features, a surface cold front
(which will bring some drier air but not much in the way of cooler
air) and an upper trough rotating around the upper low while the low
is over the Great Lakes, will be the forcing mechanisms for any
precipitation, which will have lower predictability.

Chance pops are expected on Tuesday primarily east of US-1, then all
locations should have high chance pops on Wednesday and Thursday.
Tonight`s model runs are showing the highest chances of rain
remaining to the west of central North Carolina on Wednesday, then
shifting the highest chances of rain north of the region on
Thursday, a slightly different solution than what was shown 24 hours
ago. There is fairly good agreement between deterministic and
ensemble models that the cold front should move through late
Thursday, then loiter along the coast Friday. This should keep
chance pops east of I-95 Friday, with slight chance pops across the
rest of the forecast area mainly due to the 00Z GEFS solution. With
the front shifting offshore Saturday, that is the one day in the
forecast with high confidence for dry conditions.

Expect minimal variations in the highs and lows through the period -
highs will range from the mid 80s to the low 90s while lows will be
in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 631 AM Sunday...

Through 12Z Monday:  Radar showing virga across the western Piedmont
including invof KINT and KGSO; however, sfc obs showing cigs around
10k ft.  Antecedent dry air that`s currently in place in the low
levels should continue to limit rain chances this morning and keep
cigs mainly vfr. The risk for brief/light showers will eventually
spread east toward I-95 later today; however will forgo including
this in the TAFs due to the aforementioned dry air, high cigs, and
overall low rain chances and widely sct coverage.  SW aob 10kt
expected through the period, with a few higher gusts mainly at
GSO/INT.

After 12Z Monday: Moisture will continue to return to the area in
the coming week, with increasing chances for showers each day,
especially at INT/GSO. Showers are likely to be diurnal in nature
through Thursday with brief periods of sub-VFR weather possible
within heavier downpours.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...np
NEAR TERM...np
SHORT TERM...np
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...np