-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
077
FXUS62 KRAH 040734
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
330 AM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of mid level disturbances will move east across the area
through mid week, as a weak surface trough and unseasonably moist
air mass holds over the region. A cold front will approach from the
west Thursday and move across the area Thursday night and Friday,
bringing drier and less humid conditions for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 945 PM Monday...

No meaningful chances where made to the overnight forecast with the
evening update as the inherited forecast remains on track.

Regional radar shows a weakening trend with convection over central
NC. A weak mid-level ridge axis will pivot across the Mid-Atlantic
tonight with only 10-20m height rises but will usher in drier mid-
level air from the Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic. These
features should act to limit overnight scattered overnight showers
and result in most locations remaining dry. Isolated light showers
can not be ruled out however as a continued highly moist, unstable,
and weakly capped regime remains in place overnight. Hi-Res guidance
understandably struggles in these weakly forced regimes, but best
chances (5-15%) would be where low-level instability of 100-150 J/kg
will exist from upstate SC through the northeast Piedmont and
northern Coastal Plain of NC through the overnight hours. Lows
overnight will settle into the mid 60s by early Tues morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Monday...

Tuesday should be a relatively average June day with a Bermuda high
in place and southerly return flow beneath weak ridging aloft.  A
weak backdoor cold front is forecast to settle down the Mid-Atlantic
coast but models have trended further north with its final push and
it doesnt quite reach Halifax and Edgecombe Counties, perhaps
stopping over southeast VA per NAM 925mb fields.  Aloft, there is a
weak circulation over TN today but it should drift more
northeastward tonight and doesnt appear to have much impact on
convective development tomorrow.  CAMs tend to slightly favor the
northeast CWA, again perhaps in closer proximity to the weak
convergence associated with the weak backdoor boundary.  PW will
increase to around 1.6, which is around the daily 90th percentile,
and thus will support a little better coverage or storms, which will
be slow moving given very weak tropospheric flow under the ridge.
Will trend 30-50 POPs toward the northeast CWA during the afternoon,
with otherwise partly to mostly cloudy skies once possible morning
stratus in the Piedmont burns off.  Highs will be in the mid to
upper 60s, falling only into the mid and upper 60s overnight with a
continued slight chance of a shower.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 330 AM Tuesday...

By Thursday morning, an upper low will be over southwestern Ontario
with a surface low a bit farther to the northeast. The surface cold
front should extend southeast across the Great Lakes into
Pennsylvania, then arc back to the southwest along the I-85/95
corridor. While some minimal changes were made to the area of likely
shower coverage on Thursday, likely pops generally remain to the
southeast of US-1. MUCAPE should be on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg,
while effective bulk shear remains at or below 30 kt. Thursday also
appears to be the warmest day out of the next seven, with west-
southwesterly flow providing warm advection allowing highs to max
out between the mid 80s and lower 90s.

Although slight chance pops will continue from US-1 to the east
Thursday evening, have continued the inherited dry forecast for
Friday as the GEFS has finally come in line with other models
showing all precipitation to the east of the region. Friday appears
to be the day that noticeably drier air will arrive, with dewpoints
dropping into the 50s (and upper 40s in the Triad). The dry forecast
continues through Saturday into Sunday. Unfortunately, different
runs of the GFS/ECMWF and their respective ensembles continue to
flip-flop as to when the next front will approach the southeastern
United States, so this part of the forecast has below normal
confidence. For now, have slight chance pops Sunday night and chance
pops everywhere Monday. The Thursday/Friday front won`t bring much
change in high temperatures, with highs remaining in the 80s through
the weekend. However, there will be some relief each night, with
overnight lows in the lower 60s instead of the upper 60s.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

Areas of IFR stratus and/or fog will be possible again mainly over
the NC Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain this morning, including most
likely at RWI, INT, and GSO. Isolated to scattered showers/storms
are likely to redevelop with daytime heating by early to mid-
afternoon, with the relative highest probability of occurrence along
an outflow boundary (lifting mechanism) supporting an ongoing
cluster of showers between RWI and RDU (centered around LHZ).

Outlook: A humid air mass in place through Thu will support a risk
of late night-early morning stratus and fog, especially where widely
scattered showers/storms occur the previous afternoon-evening.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Hartfield
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...BLS
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...MWS