-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
890
FXUS63 KSGF 231536
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1036 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon but no severe
  weather.

- Marginal risk(level 1 of 5) of severe storms late tonight into
  early Friday morning.

- Additional severe weather and heavy rain chances Friday
  through Sunday.
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&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 1026 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

The few remaining showers over south central Missouri will
continue to dissipate as the warm front has lifted north to a
Pittsburg KS to Lebanon, MO and Houston, MO at 10 AM.

With CAM models nearly convection free and the 12z SGF RAOB
detected a significant surface/ML cap in place, potential for
additional thunderstorms into the early evening will be
minimal.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show the next deeper low pressure
system over the intermountain west region with subtle shortwave
energy over the central and southern plains. At the surface
there was a frontal boundary from the southwest corner of
Missouri into south central Missouri. There is still some
elevated CAPE up to around 1000 j/kg over southern Missouri. A
few isolated showers continue to pop up along and generally
north of the frontal boundary. Temperatures across the area were
generally in the mid 60s with dew points in the upper 50s to low
60s.

Remainder of the overnight: Would expect a bit more coverage in
convection to develop over southern Missouri with a few stronger
storms capable of some small hail up to quarter size and wind
gusts up to 50 mph. Coverage should then begin to decrease after
sunrise.

Today: Warm front will lift north through the area this morning
and we`ll become quite unstable during the afternoon. Not much
to focus convection on though in the warm sector during the
afternoon and evening so our pops after the morning scattered
convection ends will be on the low side (less than 15%). We
should warm into the low to mid 80s today and we`ll see those
dew points rise into the upper 60s to low 70s in the warm
sector.


Tonight: Thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of a
dryline/cold front and upper level wave this evening in the
plains and then push into the western part of the CWA late
tonight. A few of these may approach severe limits of 60 mph
winds and hail to the size of quarters.

Friday: A lot of Friday`s forecast will be determined on how the
Thursday night`s convection evolves. If the thunderstorm complex
holds together there will be a lot of cloud cover and
thunderstorms will spread from west to east during the day. This
would likely keep temperatures down, with the best chances of
recovery in the western CWA. If the thunderstorm complex
diminishes and falls apart during the morning, then would could
see temperatures rise back into the low to mid 80s for highs
with thunderstorms redeveloping along any outflows/mcv in the
afternoon. For now, we are keeping temperatures in the 80 to 83
degree range over the area with pops in the 40-70% range. The
better chances of severe storms (level 2 of 5) will be over the
southeast 1/2 of the CWA as a cold front pushes through the area
Friday afternoon and evening during the time period of best
instability.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 203 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Friday night: The storms should clear from northwest to
southeast with the frontal passage on Friday night and high
pressure building in behind the front.

Saturday-Sunday: The next system will be quick on the heels of
the Friday system. Another upper wave will push in from the
southwest late Saturday into Saturday night. This system looks
to have plenty of shear with strong low level wind fields. A
surface low/front will also push through the area Saturday night
into Sunday with the severe storm chances continuing into
Sunday.

Monday - Wednesday: More of a northwesterly flow develops over
the area with generally dry conditions setting up. There are
some model differences that could bring in some lower end
shower chances Monday into Monday night, but overall the big
thunderstorm chances should come to an end with the Sunday
system. Temperatures should cool back into the 70s on Monday but
begin to warm back into the 80s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 605 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

For the 12z TAFS, warm front was starting to lift north over
southern Missouri. Remaining convection was up in central
Missouri north of the TAF sites. Should stay capped for much of
the day. While we can`t rule out some isolated convection this
afternoon, coverage too low to include in prob30 group at this
time. Next organized convection to move into the area will
likely be outside of the TAF period which ends at 12z Fri.

Will have some MVFR ceilings this morning, but these should
begin to improve to VFR by the late morning to early afternoon.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Runnels
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg