-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
605
FXUS66 KSGX 020414
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
914 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough over the West Coast this weekend will keep a deep
marine layer in place through Monday with pockets of early morning
drizzle in some coastal and valley areas. Low clouds will retreat
back to the coast each afternoon. High pressure building over the
Southwest will bring warming to the valleys, mountains and deserts
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
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FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

Evening update...
Evening water vapor satellite imagery shows a short wave trough
progressing eastward near the CA/AZ border. Breezy west winds
continue across the mountains and deserts where gusts are around
25-45 mph, strongest through the San Gorgonio Pass. Winds will
weaken overnight. On the June Gloom side of things, the 00Z KNKX
sounding shows the marine inversion base near 2400 ft MSL, or
about 400 ft lower than this morning. Clouds have already spread
into some of the inland valleys and will fill in across much of
the Inland Empire overnight. A coastal eddy tonight could help
deepen the marine layer slightly, with some patchy drizzle once
again possible for the coastal areas and valleys. Not much change
in the predicted clearing either, with clouds dissipating in the
valleys during the late morning/early afternoon but sticking to
many of the coastal areas through the day Sunday.

Previous discussion...
High temperatures Sunday and Monday will range from 65-72 near the
coast, from 72-82 from in the inland areas, from 70-80 in the
mountains, the low 90s in the high deserts, and from 100-105 in the
low deserts. Gusty westerly winds will impact the mountains and
deserts each afternoon and evening.

From next Tuesday through Thursday a 592 dm upper ridge builds over
Nevada, Utah, Arizona and eastern California. This pattern will
bring hotter days to the deserts, and warmer days west of the
mountains. Highs from Wednesday through Friday will range from 105-
110 in the lower deserts, and 100-105 in the high deserts. Mountain
highs will be in the 80s. The eastern sections of the Inland Empire
will also feel some of this heat with highs from 90-95 Wednesday and
Thursday. The coastal areas and the western valleys will be not see
quite as much warming since the temperatures will be moderated by
cool onshore flow and a marine layer that will shrink but not
disappear entirely. Coastal highs will be near 70, with highs
from 75-80 just a few miles inland.

Late next week some of the long range models show a longwave trough
over the eastern Pacific ejecting a shortwave across SoCal. How this
wave evolves over the next few days will determine whether it will
be in a position to draw enough moisture and instability for
isolated elevated convective cells over SoCal Friday or Saturday, or
simply produce increasing mid and high clouds.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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020350Z...Coast/Valleys...Low clouds have spread about 20 miles
inland at this hour. Bases are 1500-2000 ft MSL with tops to 3000 ft
MSL. CIG impacts currently at KSAN, KCRQ and KSNA. About a 40
percent chance of CIGs at KONT after 06Z and about a 50 percent
chance of CIGs at KSBD after 09Z. Low clouds will spread inland to
the foothills by 12Z, obscuring higher terrain with VIS restrictions
where clouds and terrain intersect. Expect clearing in the valleys
16Z-19Z and partial clearing near the coast 18Z-21Z. SCT-BKN clouds
near the coast into Sunday afternoon.

Mountains/Deserts...Clear skies with unrestricted VIS will continue
through Sunday. W winds gusting 25-40 kt through 12Z from the
mountain crests east through the desert slopes and into the deserts,
including through/near San Gorgonio Pass, along with MOD UDDFS. Some
gusts to 35 kt will occur again after 22Z.
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&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Thursday.

&&

.SKYWARN...
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Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.
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&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...SS/Moede
AVIATION/MARINE...PG