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117
FXUS64 KSHV 221950
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

Convection looks to still be well underway by 00Z this evening.
Discrete supercells capable of protecting very large hail will
eventually coalesce into a Mesoscale Convective System, from which
point onwards the principal threat will shift to damaging winds, as
well as flooding rainfall. This initial round of convection should
come to an end late this evening and into the overnight hours, but
enough model solutions indicate the potential for renewed convection
across our northern zones through the night and into the early
morning tomorrow to carry at least a slight chance of precip in
these zones in our weather grids in advance of the next significant
round of storms.

Continued cloud cover through the night should keep lows fairly mild
tonight, though rain cooling effects may manage to allow us to drop
into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Depending on how much post
convection clouds break up through the morning and early afternoon,
highs may manage to rebound back into the upper 80s and lower 90s
tomorrow afternoon, with lower to middle 80s north. Lows Friday
morning look to be similar to tonight`s, ranging from the mid to upper
60s north to lower 70s south.

Tomorrow morning`s storm chances will spread south into the
afternoon, consistent with the next impulse of energy driving a
similar convective mode to today`s, if perhaps not as far south in
extent. This broad timing progression suggests similarity as well in
timing, with a largely afternoon and evening event, with all modes
of severe weather possible yet again, to a lesser extent than today,
both in coverage and in confidence. That being said, careful
attention will, as always, be paid to forthcoming forecast updates.

/26/
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

As of this writing, Friday looks to begin with a discernible gap in
the precip grids, but this may be wise to take with a grain of salt,
as the ArkLaTex feels locked into something of a "rinse and repeat"
forecast cycle for at least a few more days while the pseudo-
stationary surface boundary draped along our north continues to work
with in tandem with upper level flow to steer one round of storms
after another into our region. This looks to be the case once again
by Friday evening, with storm chances along and north of the I-20
corridor developing and continuing overnight before diminishing
Saturday morning, followed by some drying Saturday afternoon and a
similar performance overnight into Sunday, this time restrained
largely to the I-30 corridor and areas to the north. Details
regarding coverage and timing are, of course, subject to change.

The weekend will see persistent southerly flow reinforce the warming
trend experienced this week, with widespread highs in the low 90s
across the region and an increase in highs climbing into the middle
90s, in concert with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, these will
make for uncomfortable to oppressive humidity for portions of the
region before a regime change finally takes effect.

Said pattern shift looks to manifest during the day Monday, as the
upper level troughing associated with the surface boundary finally
gets nudged north and east by a building ridge out of the west. This
transitional pattern will allow for northwesterly flow to return
area lows to the 60s and highs to the 80s through at least the
middle of next week, followed by a fairly quick return to the 90s by
the end of this extended forecast period.

/26/
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

VFR conditions are expected this afternoon and at least a portion
of this evening, with cu cigs expected to persist across much of
the region through this time. However, convection will continue to
increase through the afternoon across portions of NE TX/SW AR,
possibly affecting the TXK terminal by mid-afternoon. This
convection should eventually build farther SE across E TX and into
N LA by/after 00Z Thursday, affecting the I-20 terminals between
00-03Z. MVFR cigs with gusty winds/reduced vsbys are likely
in/near the convection, although these storms should develop a
cold pool deep enough to delay the onset of low cloud development
through much of the overnight hours generally along/N of I-20.
However, low MVFR/IFR cigs will be possible at LFK especially if
convection does not affect this terminal late this
evening/overnight. Once diurnal heating commences shortly after
daybreak, should begin to see IFR/low MVFR cigs develop over the
area, which will slowly lift/eventually scatter out by the end of
the 18Z TAF period. S winds 8-13kts with occasional higher gusts
to 20kts, will become SSE and diminish below 10kts, except gusty
in/near convection. Winds should diminish to 5kts or less once the
convection diminishes late tonight. /15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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SHV  72  90  73  93 /  70  20  30   0
MLU  70  90  71  93 /  60  20  20   0
DEQ  66  84  67  87 /  60  50  60  10
TXK  69  87  70  91 /  70  40  50  10
ELD  67  87  68  91 /  80  30  40  10
TYR  70  88  73  92 /  70  20  20   0
GGG  70  88  72  91 /  70  20  30   0
LFK  71  91  73  93 /  40  10   0   0
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....26
AVIATION...15