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316
FXUS64 KSJT 201704
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1204 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 241 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

The heat and dry weather will continue across west central Texas
today. Highs will again climb into the upper 90s to around 102
degrees. Records aren`t expected to be broken with both Abilene and
San Angelo records at 105. Winds will continue to be out of the
south and gusty today, but shouldn`t be quite as breezy as they were
yesterday. We could see a few low clouds this morning, mainly east
of a Brownwood to Brady to Junction line, but even if these clouds
do develop, they should scatter out by mid morning at the latest.
Lows will also continue to be warm, dropping only into the low to
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate hot and dry weather will result
from a high pressure ridge that sits over our area through Tuesday.
Then, a frontal boundary will affect the area on Wednesday
afternoon, which will limit high temperatures across the Big
Country to the middle 80s. This frontal boundary will combine with
a dryline off to the west to support thunderstorm development
during the afternoon, evening, and overnight hours. Additional
activity is possible across the region on Thursday along the
dryline as a minor disturbance aloft also moves through. All of
this activity will have to be monitored closely for severe weather
potential. Conditions appear to be favorable for possible severe
weather on Wednesday and Thursday. With regards to Tuesday, a
Marginal Risk for severe weather is in place. However, it remains
to be seen if any thunderstorm development can be initiated. If it
does initiate, then these thunderstorms will certainly carry the
risk of severe weather. However, chances remain low (less than
20%) for thunderstorm development. Large hail and damaging winds
appear to be the main concerns at this time. Please check back
over the next day or two for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon May 20 2024

MVFR ceilings at KJCT will scatter out by 18Z leaving VFR conditions
areawide through the rest of the afternoon/evening. Gusty winds out
of the south will come down slightly after sunset before picking up
again during the overnight hours. Gusts should remain less than 25
kts. MVFR stratus is expected to build back in from the southeast
late overnight, impacting all sites by mid morning. Confidence in
the stratus reaching KABI is on the lower side but have included
an MVFR group for the time being, though this may need to be
adjusted with further guidance. These clouds are expected to
scatter out by 16Z with all sites returning to VFR as winds begin
to pick up out of the southwest.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     73  96  72  91 /   0  20  10  40
San Angelo  73 100  72  97 /   0   0  20  30
Junction    72 101  73  99 /   0   0  10  20
Brownwood   71  93  72  89 /   0  20  20  40
Sweetwater  74  98  71  91 /   0   0  10  30
Ozona       72  97  72  96 /   0   0  20  10
Brady       71  95  72  92 /   0  10  20  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...50