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645
FXUS64 KSJT 200554
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1254 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Short wave ridging will continue to influence the region through
tomorrow. This will keep our area dry through the period, with
well above normal temperatures continuing. Gusty south winds this
afternoon will diminish after sunset, except for some of the
higher terrain where winds will remain elevated overnight. Expect
clear skies tonight and mostly sunny skies on Monday. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 60s and lower 70s, with highs on Monday
ranging from the mid and upper 90s east, to 99-102 degrees across
western sections. South winds will become gusty again late Monday
morning into the afternoon hours.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Upper level troughing will begin to make its way into the area
early on Tuesday, which should provide in increase in upper level
moisture. While we may see an increase in high clouds, this will
likely do little to curb the temperatures at the surface with
highs reaching anywhere from the mid 90s to around 104 (primarily
in the Concho Valley and along the I-10 corridor). The 850 mb
thermal ridge will strengthen even further on Tuesday to near 30
deg C across our southwestern counties with gusty winds out of the
southwest, shifting to the west behind an eastward-mixing
dryline. There remains a highly conditional threat for severe
weather across our northern and eastern counties on Tuesday, ahead
of the dryline where significant daytime heating and moisture
will co-exist. Forcing overall will be weak and a capping
inversion may hinder any development. Overall chances remain very
low with PoPs staying below the mentionable category for now but
if we get just enough low- level convergence along the dryline, a
strong storm or two could develop. As such, SPC has portions of
our area in a Day 3 Marginal Risk. A frontal boundary will begin
to sag south into the area during the day on Wednesday. Shower and
storm development along and ahead of the boundary looks to begin
Wednesday afternoon with a potential for strong to severe storms.
Rain chances continue into Thursday as this frontal boundary is
expected to stall out and begin to lift back north as a warm
front. Temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will vary from the mid
80s in the Big Country and Heartland (where overall greater
chances of rain exist) to the mid and upper 90s as one moves south
and west.

Unfortunately, the cooler temperatures for portions of the area
will be short lived as highs by Friday climb back into the 90s
areawide. A slight chance for storms exists late Friday night in
the Northwest Hill Country but overall little impact is expected
from this. Temperatures begin to climb back well above normal for
the holiday weekend with temperatures reaching back over 100
degrees to around 103 by Sunday as upper level zonal flow returns
to the area. Some guidance is indicating a potential cold front
around Memorial Day but given how far out this is, confidence is
low overall so it may be best to start planning for the potential
of a toasty Memorial Day.
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&&

.AVIATION...
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(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon May 20 2024

VFR conditions are currently affecting all sites with south to
southeast winds. Winds are gusting to 20 to 25 knots at KSJT and
KABI, so will keep gusts in the forecast tonight for those sites.
MVFR ceilings are expected to move north and affect at least KJCT
for a couple hours tomorrow morning, and could also affect KSOA
and KBBD temporarily. By mid morning, low clouds should scatter
out, with only some upper level clouds possible after that.
South/southwest winds will pick up and become gusty at all sites
again during the afternoon hours.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Abilene     97  74  96  73 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo 102  74 100  71 /   0   0   0  20
Junction    98  72 101  74 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   93  71  93  72 /   0   0  10  10
Sweetwater 100  75  98  72 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona      100  72  97  72 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       95  71  95  72 /   0   0  10  10
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&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...20