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198
FXUS65 KTFX 242109
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
309 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

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Showers and thunderstorms continue today and tomorrow as an
unsettled weather pattern continues across North Central and
Southwestern Montana. Expect warmer and drier weather for the
first part of next week, with another round of cooler and
unsettled weather possible for the middle of next week.
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&&

.DISCUSSION...

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Key Points:

-A few thunderstorms this evening and Saturday may bring some
isolated gusty winds

-Dry with comfortable temperatures for Memorial Day, with most
lower elevations reaching the low 70s

Short Term (through Saturday)... A more or less typical spring
day is in progress across North Central and Southwestern Montana
with a few rain showers and thunderstorms developing across North
Central Montana. For the most part, any rain showers or
thunderstorms will not be of much note, though a few isolated
heavy downpours and gusty winds to 40 mph will be possible,
especially considering that most of these showers are moderately
high based, with bases around 7000 feet with fairly dry air below
them. Looking at the Southwest, expect a mostly dry and partly
sunny day here, with just an isolated rain shower or two over the
higher terrain. Any showers and thunderstorms should quickly
dissipate after sunset.

Saturday will be a similar day to today, only just a few degrees
warmer across the Northern Plains as showers and thunderstorms
will tend to be more across Southwestern and Central Montana as
opposed to the plains that we have this afternoon. This setup will
bring some mostly beneficial rainfall to a decent portion of
Southwestern Montana, though we will have to watch for some
isolated strong winds thanks to storm bases reaching 7-8000 feet
above the valley floors.

Extended (Sunday though next Friday)...Aside from a few rain and
mountain top snow showers on Sunday, The second half of the
Memorial Day weekend will feature mostly dry and warm weather for
all of the Memorial Day activities that are scheduled for the
weekend as an upper level ridge builds into the area. After highs
on Sunday remaining in the 60s across the lower elevations across
the area, highs for Memorial Day will reach into the 70s with a
few locations toying with 80 on Tuesday.

Our next system looks to push in Tuesday night or Wednesday,
which will bring a potential for widespread thunderstorms followed
by cooler temperatures. Not much is known about the details of
this system yet aside from the potential for thunderstorms and
cooler weather, however, as ensemble guidance from the WPC Cluster
Analysis shows that models diverge strongly and rapidly beyond
the middle of next week. Ludwig
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&&

.AVIATION...
24/18Z TAF Period

VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals excluding KWYS
during this TAF period. The main concern through this period will be
the chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms across most
of north-central, central, and southwestern Montana. At this point
in time the set up looks a bit hit-or-miss for thunderstorms across
the region but confidence was high enough to make it worth including
in the TAFs with either a vicinity tag or as a prob30 group for all
sites except KWYS and KEKS where only light showers are expected.
Otherwise, no other significant hazards are expected during this
period.

-thor

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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GTF  40  65  41  63 /  10  70  40  10
CTB  37  62  40  60 /  20  30  10  10
HLN  43  65  41  64 /   0  70  40  10
BZN  35  63  37  62 /  20  80  80  20
WYS  30  54  33  54 /  10  80  80  20
DLN  36  59  34  62 /  10  70  40   0
HVR  40  69  44  64 /  40  40  50  30
LWT  37  63  38  59 /  10  70  70  20
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&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls