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770
FXUS65 KVEF 181150 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
210 AM PDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...The high pressure that brought the very warm
temperatures Friday will shift east allowing for a downward trend in
temperatures into early next week. Most areas remain dry aside from
isolated showers over the Sierra and southern Great Basin over the
next few days. Gusty winds develop on Sunday and Monday afternoon as
well, especially in San Bernardino County. Dry, seasonably warm, and
breezy conditions are anticipated later next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Monday.

A cooling trend is expected over the next few days as a broad trough
moves into the western states. Not only will this bring cooler
temperatures, but increasing southwest winds, especially across
western San Bernardino County, along with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to portions of the area. Due to the position of the
exiting ridge and incoming trough we will see a convergence boundary
develop from northern Inyo into Lincoln County. There will be plenty
of mid-level moisture with PWs ranging from 0.50" - 0.75". Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon across
northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye, and Lincoln Counties.
Coverage is expected to be highest in the Sierra where orographics
will be greatest leading to some showers/storms producing upwards of
half an inch of rain. Gusty winds will also be a concern near any
thunderstorms, especially in central Nevada. Expect to see this
convergence boundary Sunday and Monday, but overall
showers/thunderstorm coverage looks to be less and mainly confined
to Lincoln County.

Gusty southwest to west winds will develop Sunday and Monday mainly
in a band from San Bernardino through Clark and into Mohave County.
Most areas will see winds 15 to 25 mph with locally higher gusts.
Areas across western San Bernardino County will see widespread wind
of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to around 40 mph with the strongest winds
occuring from late afternoon into late evening both Sunday and
Monday. Some uncertainty remains in the duration of the winds, will
continue to monitor trends to determine the need for headline
issuance.

Temperatures will cool into early next week with highs dropping below
normal by Monday.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

Cluster H5 height anomalies which assimilates 100 model simulations
shows some flavor of a longwave trough across the western states
next week. Under this pattern, the region will be at least breezy at
times with near to slightly below normal temperatures heading into
the Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
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For Harry Reid...Light south winds will continue through
the morning then increase from the south-southwest and persist
tonight. Gusts 20-25 knots likely 22Z-04Z.  No operationally
significant clouds.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Southwest winds will increase gusting 20-25 knots this
afternoon across the region. Gusts around 30 knots will occur in the
Barstow area. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
develop 22Z-04Z from the Southern Sierra across Central Nevada to
the panhandle of Lincoln County with clouds bases around 15 kft MSL.
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&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gorelow
LONG TERM...Pierce
AVIATION...Adair

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