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871
FXUS61 KAKQ 221916
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
316 PM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain situated off the Southeast coast
through the end of the week. A cold front approaches from the
northwest Thursday with daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key message:

- Isolated thunderstorms possible across the Piedmont through
  the evening.

High pressure is situated off the Southeast coast this
afternoon allowing for warm temperatures under a mostly sunny
sky. A lee trough is noticeable in the pressure field just to
the west of our FA with a few thunderstorms beginning to fire
over the mountains. Will have a 20-30% PoP over our NW counties
through the early evening hours as there will be the potential
of a storm or two to sneak into the Piedmont. Otherwise, mild
tonight under a partly to mostly clear sky. Lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Summerlike and more humid Thursday with temperatures close to
  90 each day.

- Chances for thunderstorms later Thursday into Thursday
  evening. A few of these storms may be strong to severe.

An upper trough and cold front approach from the NW on Thursday.
850mb temperatures will still be ~16C supporting highs once
again in the mid 80s to near 90F, and lower to mid 80s along the
coast with a SSW wind. The upper trough and cold front will
provide a trigger for showers/tstms in a moderately unstable
airmass with strong surface heating and dewpoints in the mid to
upper 60s. This combined with 500mb flow of 30-40kt could result
in a few stronger to severe tstms. SPC has maintained a marginal
risk for our area. However, some of the CAMs are looking more
robust with respect to thunderstorm coverage/intensity late
Thursday, especially along and south of the VA Hwy 460 corridor.
Primary threats will be localized damaging wind gusts and hail.
Showers/tstms diminish in coverage Thursday night with low
temperatures ranging through the 60s. The front stalls in
vicinity of the area Friday. However, 12z/22 model guidance has
continued to trend downward with shower/tstm chances. Forecast
PoPs range from 20-30% E to 30-40% W Friday afternoon. Continued
warm and moderately humid Friday with highs in the lower to mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining somewhat unsettled through the weekend with chances
  for mainly afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms.

The lingering frontal boundary stalls over the region over the
weekend and into Memorial Day and through Tuesday as well. In
addition, westerly mid and upper level flow will allow for a
series of shortwaves to move across the region. Confidence on
timing is very low, so the forecast will continue with daily
chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms. High
temperatures will mainly be in the 80s with low temperatures in
the 60s through the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Wednesday...

High pressure is just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast as of
17z. VFR under a mostly clear sky with a calm to light SSW wind
for most sites this afternoon. Should see an increase in CU
across the Piedmont by late afternoon and an isold -TSRA cannot
be ruled out NNW of KRIC between 21Z-03Z. Partly cloudy to
mostly clear and VFR tonight with a light S wind.

A cold front approaches the area Thursday bringing with it a
chance for showers/tstms along with possible flight
restrictions. The front looks to stall in the vicinity of the
region Friday-Sunday, bringing daily chances for mainly
afternoon/evening showers/tstms.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 310 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the Holiday
weekend.

- Shower and storm chances return Thursday afternoon and are
possible again over the holiday weekend.

High pressure is slowly shifting farther out to sea this afternoon,
as a storm system, located over the Great Lakes, and a cold front,
that stretches across the Ohio Valley, starts to approach from the
NW. Expect SSE winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt this evening to
become SSW 5-15kt overnight tonight into Thu morning. Shower and
storm chances will increase on Thursday afternoon and evening hours,
with the front`s approach.  But the front will be weakening as it
arrives and stall across the region.  It will then waffle back and
forth across the area through the Holiday weekend.  While this will
keep the chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
through the weekend into early next week, the winds and seas will
remain below sca levels through the weekend. Overall expect winds
below 10 kts and seas 2 - 3 ft over the ocean and 1 - 2 ft in the
Bay and area rivers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 315 PM EDT Wednesday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur later tonight into Thu morning, particularly for the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock
River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac, due to the higher
astronomical high tides remaining elevated.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDM
NEAR TERM...JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...AJZ/JDM
MARINE...ESS/TMG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...