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285
FXUS61 KBGM 231720
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
120 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front exits the region by early this afternoon with
scattered showers and thunderstorms for the southern half of the
area. High pressure builds in tonight with quiet weather on
Friday, however a weak system brings another round of showers
and thunderstorms this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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115 PM Update...

Temperatures in the higher elevations and where skies were
cloudy were slightly cooler than originally expected. Because of
this, there were some updates made to temperatures for the rest
of the day. Otherwise, the forecast was doing well and needed
little change.

1030 AM Update...

The active morning is winding down as the last of the showers
are moving out of the region. High pressure and drier air are
slowly building into the region. Far western areas of the
Southern Tier and Finger Lakes have cleared out. That clearing
will gradually spread eastward the rest of this morning and
afternoon. The showers and clouds have kept temperatures a bit
cooler than forecasted. The hourly temps were decreased slightly
using the latest runs of short range guidance, but the highs for
today are still possible, especially with clearing taking place.

555 AM Update...

Shortwave trough pushing out of Central PA this morning and into
NE PA will continue to kick off showers and thunderstorms.
Still plenty of instability aloft, with forecast model soundings
showing 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE at Avoca and 35 KT of 0-6 km
shear. There will be potential for an isolated severe
thunderstorm or 2 across NE PA and into Sullivan County NY
through mid to late morning. Brief heavy downpours will also
make for a tough commute this morning across the Scranton/Wilkes
Barre area.


4 AM Update...

Cold front and associated upper short wave will push through
the region by early this afternoon. Short wave will push
northeast out of the Ohio Valley this morning and push across NE
PA by late morning/early this afternoon. This will help keep
heavy showers and thunderstorms going across portions of NE PA
and the Catskills through the morning hours. High pressure will
finally build in behind this front this afternoon and evening.
Clouds will clear late today and tonight with quiet weather
through the remainder of the period. Also, dew point
temperatures will drop 15 to 20 degrees by Friday, bringing a
relief to the hot a humid conditions the area has seen the last
few days. Friday is shaping up to be a nice one, with sunny
skies and highs topping out in the upper 70s to low 80s and low
humidity.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
335 AM Update...

High pressure in control at the surface and weak ridging aloft
will lead to dry conditions Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Skies will be mostly clear and with cooler, drier air
filtering in, did blend in a little of the NBM 10th percentile
into the forecast. Lows will mainly be in the upper 40s and low
50s.

After the dry start to the day Saturday, clouds will increase
as an upper level shortwave and weak frontal boundary approach
the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop later in the day ahead of the front and continue into
Saturday night as the front gradually moves through. Highs
Saturday will range from the upper 70s to the low 80s. Some
valley locations may reach the mid 80s, especially with the
trend being slower with the arrival of precipitation. Lows
Saturday night will be milder in the 50s to near 60 degrees.

Sunday is expected to be largely dry with just a slight chance
(<25%) of a shower or thunderstorm with the heating of the day
with the front still close by. The best chance for this would be
over NE PA and the southern Catskills. High temperatures will
be similar to Saturday in the upper 70s and low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
335 AM Update...

A warm front associated with our next storm system is expected
to lift north toward the area Sunday night and the main area of
low pressure lifts northeast into the Great Lakes on Monday,
Memorial Day. As a result, showers and thunderstorms look likely
for the holiday. As the low continues northeastward into SE
Canada, a broad upper trough remains over the region with a
couple of embedded shortwaves rotating through. This will keep
the area unsettled with a chance of additional showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday, especially during peak
heating hours.

Highs Memorial Day are expected to be in the low to mid 70s,
then it will cool down into the 60s by Wednesday. Lows Tuesday
and Wednesday night will be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds become
light and variable overnight before picking back up by midday
Friday. Northeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon will become
gusty with peak gusts of 15 to 20 kts possible.

Outlook...

Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms, mainly western areas Sat afternoon, then
spreading east overnight.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BTL/MPK
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...BTL