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359
FXUS61 KBGM 241900
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
300 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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While much of the area will remain dry this afternoon,
additional disturbances will support shower chances tonight
through Thursday. The pattern will change in time for the
weekend as high pressure settles back in with drier conditions.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes to the coverage of showers and drizzle this
morning with the mid-morning and noontime updates. Previous
discussion below.


420 AM Update...

Cloudy skies prevail across the area this morning, with plenty
of low stratus, especially across the Southern Tier into NEPA.
Some light radar returns have been increasing over the past
hour or so, likely just spotty drizzle which will continue off
and on through about mid morning.

Otherwise, while we remain in active southwesterly flow aloft,
we`ll spend most of the day between upper level disturbances,
and with the lack of forcing, showers will be very sparse. Rain
chances will be marginally higher across western sections such
as the Finger Lakes, as high pressure over New England keeps
trying to filter drier air at the low levels into the eastern
reaches of the CWA.

Rain showers will increase again tonight as another shortwave
trough rolls through the area, and a 100-knot jet streak noses
into western NY. Isolated thunderstorms can`t be ruled out
either.

Wednesday will likely be mostly dry to start, but with
additional widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
cropping up in the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
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300 PM Update:

A frontal system will work its way through the region on
Thursday, which will bring scattered showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms to the area. This front will have an earlier
passage, so areas west of I-81 may dry out for the afternoon,
with lingering showers still present east of I-81. Otherwise,
partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies are expected with highs in
the lower to mid 70s. A few isolated showers may remain early
Thursday evening, but otherwise most of the area will be mainly
dry with lows mainly in the 50s.

High pressure will bring dry conditions for Friday along with
partly to mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the lower
to mid 70s. A few isolated showers will be possible from the
Twin Tiers southward Friday night with potentially some moisture
advecting in between an upper level low across the Canadian
Maritimes and another low across the Mississippi River Valley,
but the chance are that the entire area will remain rain-free.
Lows are expected to mainly be in the 50s once again.
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&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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300 PM Update:

Mainly dry conditions are anticipated for the weekend with
surface high pressure in control and moisture associated with
the remnants of Helene remaining across the Mississippi River
Valley area. This closed upper low will transition to more of an
open wave early next week and potentially bring showers to the
area around the Tuesday timeframe. This is far from a certainty
though as there is some model guidance that keeps this moisture
well south of our area.

Temperatures in the long term will remain slightly above normal
(highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s).
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MVFR ceilings should largely remain in place for the rest of
the afternoon. It is possible and mentioned through TEMPOS for
the ceilings to lift to VFR for brief intervals. However,
ceilings should generally start to lower a bit in the MVFR
range. Some IFR ceilings toward sunrise are possible at
KELM,KAVP,KITH and KBGM.

These ceilings should only be slow to lift again on
Wednesday. A few rounds of showers are also expected with the
highest chances for visibility restrictions toward sunrise and
then till the end of the TAF period. A few southeast wind gusts
may approach 20 knots from time to time as well. Weak speed LLWS
is possible as well for a time overnight but some uncertainity
is still present and it was not included with the updated TAFS.
A brief rumble of thunder can not be ruled out with the showers
as well.

.Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday... MVFR and IFR with
showers passing through the region. Embedded thunder could also
occur later on Wednesday.

Thursday night through Sunday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MPH
NEAR TERM...MPH/MWG
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...MWG