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393
FXUS61 KBUF 011423
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1023 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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Dry weather will continue through tonight as high pressure across
the region drifts to the east coast. Weakening low pressure will
move into the Ohio Valley Sunday, bringing a chance of a showers and
a few thunderstorms. Dry and warm weather will follow for early next
week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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A mid level ridge will slowly crest over the region today as surface
high pressure drifts to the east coast. This will maintain fair
weather across the region, but there will be an increase in high
clouds this afternoon. Following another cool start, sunshine and a
slightly warmer air mass will allow afternoon temperatures to rise
into the mid to upper 70s with a few spots reaching 80F in the
Genesee Valley and Western Finger Lakes.

A weakening shortwave will lift out of the Ohio Valley and towards
the forecast area tonight. While this will result in lots of cloud
cover, the night will remain rain-free. With the clouds limiting
radiational cooling it`ll be warmer with lows ranging from the lower
50s to lower 60s.

For Sunday, the weakening shortwave will track across the area,
bringing at least a chance of showers to the area. Some model
disagreement on how strong the shortwave will be, but most agree the
best chances will be across Western New York, with lower changes
east of Lake Ontario. Despite the chance for showers, Sunday will be
far from a washout, with the vast majority of the time rain-free.
Limited afternoon instability may support a few isolated
thunderstorms. Clouds will limit daytime warming some, with highs
mainly in the 70s, except near 80 east of Lake Ontario which could
benefit from some morning breaks of sunshine.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Behind a shortwave trough showers will be exiting east and
southeastward from our region Sunday night. Some patchy fog possible
with a low dewpoint depression and light winds.

Light flow over the region Monday with broad and very weak surface
high pressure nearby. Monday should be dry, but a spot shower along
any forming lake breeze boundary cannot be ruled out. It will be a
bit warmer Monday with partly to mostly sunny skies aiding in
afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows

Monday night will drop back into the mid 50s, to lower 60s...with a
light southeasterly flow behind the departing weak surface high
limiting fog potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mid level ridge of high pressure will continue to nose its way
across the eastern Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday.

While Tuesday will feature mainly dry weather, as humidity increases
and an upstream shortwave trough nears the eastern Great Lakes,
showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage area Wednesday.
There will be light southerly breezes Wednesday with a tightening
pressure gradient.

This shortwave trough arrives Thursday with likely showers and
thunderstorms. This will be the most favorable day for thunderstorms
with a modest increase in instability. It is likely that this trough
will close off from the main west to east flow, with a pocket of
cold air over the Great Lakes promoting unsettled and cooler
conditions for Friday and into the start of next weekend.

Temperatures will average above normal, especially on Tuesday and
Wednesday with low to mid 80s widespread ahead of the next shortwave
trough. Cooler Friday, with temperatures close to normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR will prevail through tonight. High pressure and a mid-level
ridge will maintain rain-free weather through 12Z Sunday. High
clouds will increase late this afternoon through tonight, but
clouds will be well into the VFR flight category.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms, particularly across Western NY.
Monday and Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Relatively quiet weather this weekend into early next week with
no marine headlines expected. A weak low moves northeast from
the Ohio Valley to just south of the lower Great Lakes late
tonight through Sunday with a chance of a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms. High pressure will then build into the
region Sunday night through Monday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...Thomas
LONG TERM...Thomas
AVIATION...Apffel
MARINE...Apffel/Hitchcock/TMA