-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
910
FXUS62 KCHS 242348
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
748 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weak disturbances will move through the area
through Saturday. Hot conditions expected for Sunday and
Memorial Day. A cold front could bring impacts to the region
Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Quick early evening update to update the PoPs to match current
radar trends. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Convection continues to develop along an east-west oriented
boundary developing along a PWat and MLCAPE axis. The steering
flow is toward the east, and now that the sea breeze has made
some headway inland (roughly near or inland from US-17, there
will be a further increase in both the coverage and the
strength of t-storms. An MCV will continue to approach from the
west-northwest, which will further aid in the forcing for
ascent.

Convection fades during the mid and late evening with the loss
of heating and the passage of the MCV. However, within the
west-northwest flow aloft some of the guidance has been
implying that at least isolated to scattered activity will
persist through the overnight. This seems plausible since there
will be lingering outflow boundaries, sufficient moisture, and
modest CAPE. This activity though does not look to be severe.

There is an outside chance of some stratus and/or fog late at
night due to the wet grounds. But this is dependent upon how
much clearing takes place. Since most guidance does not have any
reductions in visibilities, we do not have any mention in the
forecast.

The hourly temperatures have been altered to show an atypical
curve to account for convection early on. But actually lows will
be down only into the upper 60s and lower 70s due to similar
dew points.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Saturday: The broad mid-level trough will ripple over the Atlantic
during the morning, with heights beginning to rise during the
afternoon. Short term guidance indicates that a small disturbance
could track SE across the region Saturday afternoon. Surface
conditions should feature high temperatures in the low 90s with
dewpoints in the low 70s. Model guidance indicates that a field of
CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg with shallow CIN should develop by the heat
of the afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop
across the forecast area, especially along a sea breeze. Once again,
some areas could see pockets of heavy rainfall given weak shear and
PW values in excess of 1.6 inches.

Sunday: GFS indicates that a broad H5 ridge will build across the
region. Conditions should become hot and humid during the
afternoon. High temperatures are expected to range in the mid 90s
with dewpoints in the low 70s along the coast. Heat index values may
exceed 100 degrees across the coastal counties, especially across SE
GA. Given poor mid-level lapse rates, convection will be limited to
a SCHC.

Memorial Day: The mid-level ridge axis is expected to shift east,
but is expected to remain near the region. A cold front is expected
to sweep across the Southern Appalachians Monday afternoon. Winds
will remain from the southwest through the day. Temperatures should
warm similar to values reached on Sunday, generally in the low to
mid 90s. A few pockets across the coastal counties may see heat
index values rise to around 100 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Monday night: During the evening, short term guidance indicates that
an MCS may develop over the Midlands of SC ahead of the front. This
system may track towards the coast with the cold front Monday night.
Given a wide field of instability and weak shear, it is possible
that these storms could arrive with damaging wind gusts. This
activity may remain into Tuesday morning.

Wednesday through Friday: Conditions for the rest of the week should
remain dry. High temperatures are forecast to range in the upper 80s
each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Showers and thunderstorms will impact the terminals late this
afternoon and early evening, and produce flight restrictions.
This is mainly between 20Z and 01Z. Convection diminishes
thereafter, although some additional convection might advance
back into the region late overnight. However, confidence is too
low to add any mention to the current terminal forecast. Also,
there might be a low end risk for stratus and/or fog closer to
daybreak Saturday, dependent on how much clearing can occur.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible
due to showers/thunderstorms each afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
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This evening and tonight: All terminals are now clear of
thunderstorm, however VCSH remains as showers persist this
evening. Overall, no flight restrictions included in the 00Z
TAFs. Some lighter showers could impact KCHS/KJZI within the
00-02 Z time frame, otherwise the remainder of the 00Z TAF
period should be rain free.

Saturday through Wednesday: The forecast area will remain between
high pressure across the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico and a
series of low pressure tracking over the Mid West. This pattern
should result in a sea breeze to develop each afternoon. A cold
front should sweep across the coastal waters Monday night into
Tuesday. Wind and sea conditions should remain below Small Craft
Advisory conditions.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...