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649
FXUS65 KFGZ 300314
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
814 PM MST Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, warm conditions along with reoccurring afternoon
breezes out of the west to southwest each day into next week.
Today and this weekend will see slightly stronger gusts compared
to Thursday and Friday. Regardless, the uptick in wind will have
minimal impacts.

&&

.UPDATE...
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For tonight, expect a round of clear skies and dry
weather. Low temperatures are forecast to range from the low-40s
to upper-50s across the majority of northern Arizona`s High
Country. No forecast updates are anticipated this evening.
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&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /437 PM MST/...
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A pattern of broad high pressure
remains in place despite the efforts of a trough well to our
north. This trough is limiting the amplitude of the upper-level
ridge and is tightening pressure gradients just enough to increase
west to southwest winds today. Gusts of 20 to 25 mph continue
this afternoon with peak gusts near to just above 30 mph. Once the
trough has progressed eastward tomorrow, a return of zonal flow
is expected. Dry, mostly sunny, and warm conditions persist with
afternoon temperatures a few to 5 degrees above average the next
several days. Southwest winds will be 5 to 15 mph with some
typical afternoon breezes.

The Weekend Onward...Models show synoptic competition returning
between a weak ridge with its axis near to just east of Arizona
and a weak trough to our west. This will help elevate winds
marginally Saturday and Sunday. Southwest winds will gust in the
15 to 25 mph range with stronger gusts for a few localized areas.
Once again, with weak gradients and little fluctuation in
pressure heights, you won`t feel a whole lot of change in the
weather outside subtle changes in the wind. Models do project a
stronger ridge building with higher heights and better amplitude
next week, which could lead to a climb in temperatures towards the
middle of next week. Additionally, a feeble low to our west could
push some moisture into the area. However, the most likely result
being increased cloudiness. More to follow as models work to get
a better handle on our future pattern.
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&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 30/00Z through Friday 31/00Z...VFR
conditions will persist. Look for southwest winds at 5-15 kts
gusting to 25 kts diminishing to less than 10 kts after 02Z.
Expect lighter winds from more variable wind directions on
Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Friday 31/00Z through Sunday 02/00Z...VFR conditions
will continue. Light afternoon southwest winds generally less
than 15 kts on Friday will gust between 20-30 kts on Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Dry and warm weather will
continue with southwest winds at 5-15 mph both days. Afternoon RH
values of 5-15% with overnight recoveries of 25-45%.

Saturday through Monday...Look for warm and dry weather. Southwest
winds each day at 5-15 mph gusting to 25 mph. Afternoon RH values of
5-15% with overnight recovery ranging from 20-40%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR/Mazon
AVIATION...RR
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff