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181
FXUS65 KGJT 221737
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1137 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmer and mostly sunny today. Winds will pick up this
  afternoon from the west to southwest at 10-20 mph with some
  gusts over 30 mph expected.

- Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday, along with windier
  conditions along a slow moving frontal boundary.

- Partly to mostly cloudy conditions continue Friday and into
  the weekend with the chance for afternoon showers and
  thunderstorms in the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Cool and dry conditions persist on the West Slope this morning,
where temperatures are expected to bottom out nearly 10 degrees
under late May averages. Some patchy fog has developed in a few of
our valleys this morning, taking advantage of the light winds and
recent moisture. This will be short lived though, plenty of sunshine
will burn things off pretty quickly. A flattened ridge will work
through the region today, as another frontal boundary settles in
from the northwest. Well mixed conditions this afternoon will bring
another round of gusty winds to the CWA. Steady winds of 10-20 mph
are expected across the region with gusts inching up above 30 mph,
especially across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado. Winds
aloft, thanks to the frontal boundary draped along our WY border,
will be stronger, thus the windier conditions north of I-70. A few
clouds will crop up too along the approaching front, again hanging
north of I-70 for the most part. Desert valleys will push back
towards 80 today, while the mountain valleys will hang around the
60`s today. Late tonight, the deepening upper trough over the Great
Basin will push the frontal boundary southward into northeast Utah.
A few showers are possible along the eastern Uintas early Thursday
morning with the pulse of available moisture there. The upper trough
will work eastward through the CWA Thursday, just clipping our
northern counties with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Surface
winds will respond to the jet streak overhead Thursday afternoon,
with winds gusting 30-40 mph across much of the CWA and a few higher
gusts closer to the Divide down in the eastern San Juans and
Gunnison Basin. Temperatures will hold the line from Wednesday,
especially south of I-70. Shower activity across our northern
counties will likely scale back the afternoon highs there 5 degrees
or so Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Some light showers will continue over the Continental Divide from
the central mountains up to the Wyoming border Thursday night and
will shift a bit southward through Friday morning. Nothing to get
too excited about though as QPF amounts through the period remain
less than .1 inches. On Friday, a closed low drops down from the BC
coast and will force an upper level trough to slide across NV and
UT. As far as we`re concerned, we might see a few spotty showers
over northern portions of the CWA but coverage is minimal as are QPF
amounts. However, broken to overcast skies will be common for much
of the region as high level clouds move overhead. The trough to our
west will move through the CWA during the day Saturday bringing
better coverage for some rain showers and maybe a few storms. Look
for some gusty winds ahead of the trough Saturday as upper level
winds reach 30 to 40 mph and will bring some gusts of 20 to 30 mph
at the surface. The trough will quickly move to the Plains and by
Sunday morning, precip will have ended. Not so fast though as the
closed low mentioned previously is progged to drop down from western
WY and bring another round of precip from midday Sunday through
Monday morning. The same drill as before, some showers, a few
storms, and maybe some light snow at the highest elevations. Ridging
then builds in to start the work week. Temperatures through the
period will remain at or just below average values with a warmup
starting Tuesday onwards.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Wed May 22 2024

The next 24 hours will be relatively quiet with VFR conditions
prevailing at all TAF sites and no ceilings below ILS
breakpoints anticipated. Gusty southwest winds will be develop
at most TAF sites if they haven`t already begun and will
continue through 02Z/Thu. Stronger winds aloft will result in
LLWS at KGJT, KASE, KGUC and KHDN late tonight and into Thursday
morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDM
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL