-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
619
FXUS61 KILN 240552
AFDILN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
152 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Episodic showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end
of the work week and into the weekend. Temperatures are
expected to remain above normal through the weekend before a
stronger system impacts the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday,
which will reduce temperatures to near normal at the beginning
of the next work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Evening update... The combination of a mid-level shortwave and
MCV has driven a band of light stratiform rain and embedded
thunderstorms into northern Kentucky this evening. With
lingering instability in place across southern Ohio, this
activity will likely continue over the next few hours as it
pushes northward. Eventually, the activity will weaken, leaving
behind a lingering moist-level boundary layer and mostly clear
skies. Due to the mostly-clear skies, radiation cooling will
result in the development of stratus and fog, especially across
northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. Dense fog will be a
possibility in river valleys. With more clearing to the west of
the current thunderstorm anvil shield, can`t rule out dense fog
along and west of the I-75 corridor for the Friday morning
commute.


Previous discussion... A stalled frontal boundary is currently
draped across the southern portions of our CWA. While fairly
weak, it will help provide a source of lift for a relatively
warm/humid, unstable air mass. Temperatures will not climb quite
as high today, but upper 70s to near 80 degrees will be
observed.

CAMs suggest storm coverage may increase later this afternoon
into the evening hours. This is likely in response to a subtle
shortwave that ripples through southern portions of our CWA.
Overall, solutions are quite different amongst hi-res models
given the weak forcing in place, so will have to see how this
environment responds to this source of energy. PoPs will be
highest for southern OH and northern KY, but isolated
shower/storm development will still become possible for areas
further north towards the I-70 corridor.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
A chance of showers and storms will continue into the evening.
Then, as the aforementioned disturbance moves east and
instability wanes, pcpn should diminish and come to an end.
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary will slowly move north as a
warm front overnight. We could see some low clouds and some
patchy/areas of fog overnight, especially south of the front
given a light wind regime and high humidity. Lows will drop into
the lower 60s.

On Friday, weak mid level ridging will be across our region
during the morning, so dry weather is expected. Low clouds and
fog will lift during the morning. Our attention will then turn
to the west and northwest. Warm and humid air will advect north,
bringing at least moderate MLCAPE values to the region. Several
convective allowing models have been showing a potential MCS
complex developing across the Plains, moving east into our
region by late in the day or evening. For now, it appears this
system may be on a weakening trend as it enters our area.
However, given moderate instability, we could still see a strong
or severe storm in the late afternoon and into the evening
hours. Will mention this in the HWO. Otherwise, it will be warm
and humid with highs in the lower to perhaps mid 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended period will begin in a zonal flow pattern as
periodic pieces of shortwave energy push east across the Ohio
and Tennessee Valleys. On Friday night, the first of these with
an associated line of showers and storms will push east through
the Ohio Valley. Most guidance shows this line will be decaying
as it lifts into the ridge over the East Coast.

A drying period looks to arrive on Saturday before a stronger
disturbance approaches Sunday. Guidance continues to show a
rather deep surface low tracking from eastern Kansas to southern
Wisconsin Sunday/Sunday night which would increase the
potential for strong to severe storms (increased vertical wind
profile, better forcing).

An upper trough moves into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley late
Monday into the mid week, finally bringing a return to near
normal or slightly below normal temperatures after an extended
warm spell.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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Through 12Z...mid level disturbance over northeast Kentucky
will move east to West Virginia. This will allow debris clouds
to clear out. Due to recent rainfall and light wind flow, some
low stratus and/or fog will develop before sunrise, mostly
likely along and south of the Ohio River. For now, will forecast
MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions at some terminals.

For today, low stratus and/or fog will eventually lift to SCT-
BKN VFR cumulus by 16Z. A weak mid level ridge will be across
the region while a weak frontal boundary move northeast as a
warm into northern Ohio. Winds will generally be from the south
between 5 and 10 knots.

For tonight, convective allowing models have mostly backed off
on a solution that had weakening showers and storms moving in
from the west around 00Z Saturday. Thus, it appears that a
chance of showers and thunderstorms will approach the western
forecast area more likely late as a cold front encroaches from
that direction.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible at times through Tuesday.
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&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clark
NEAR TERM...Clark/McGinnis
SHORT TERM...Clark
LONG TERM...JGL
AVIATION...Hickman