-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
528
FXUS61 KRLX 230714
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
314 AM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms today. Wave grazes our
area from the south late Friday/early Saturday. Daily shower
and thunderstorm chances through the weekend/early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 240 AM Thursday...

Key Points:

  * Areas of low fog and stratus this morning.

  * Rounds of showers and storms arrive by mid-morning, last
    into evening.

  * Storms could be severe with damaging winds and hail.

  * There is a marginal risk of severe weather for today.

  * Localized to isolated areas of flash flooding possible with
    heavy rainfall within showers and storms.

  * There is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today.

Some showers are traversing the area still, but lightning and
convective activity has all but diminished. Areas of fog and low
stratus will form in spots tonight given the rainfall and
storms received today. Lows this morning will be in the 60s
across much of the area, but it will be muggy with recent
rainfall and lingering moisture.

Cold front will move down out of Ohio this morning before stalling
over our SE Ohio counties for much of the day. Watching a small
storm system crossing KY right now that appears to be holding
together. Models show this system arriving by mid-morning or
earlier. Another couple rounds of storms with breaks in between will
last into the evening with the stationary cold front lingering. Some
storms could have damaging winds and some hail, so SPC has our area
outlooked for a marginal risk for severe weather.

With all the cloud cover and moisture, temperatures will be
about 7-10 degrees cooler for some locations today. Mid to
upper 70s will be common across the lowlands; upper 60s to mid
70s in the mountains. That said, instability is not as
impressive as it was yesterday, with CAPE values south of 500
J/kg for much of the day due to cloud cover.

CAMs do show a surge with peak heating later this
afternoon/evening though with 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, areas of
near 2,000 J/kg SBCAPE and over 100 J/kg of 0-3kftAGL CAPE.
This trend seems likely to happen if we get breaks in the clouds
leading to more scattered areas of differential heating and
instability. Lift will be of no problem today with the front,
especially when it starts moving some later today.

The area is also outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall today. Areas that received a lot of rainfall yesterday
could see localized to isolated flooding with rounds of showers
and storms, especially those that see repeated training of
cells in the afternoon. Precipitable water is nothing to scoff
at either, with models showing over an inch across the area most
of the day.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

An upper level short wave will interact with a frontal boundary
south of the region late Friday into Saturday morning. This will
cause a wave to move along the front. Models continue to
struggle with the strength and timing of the short wave, and
hence how far north the moisture gets and how strong the
dynamics are with this system. Several models keep most of the
precipitation south of the area. The best chances of
precipitation will be across southwest Virginia, with chances
becoming lower further to the north.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday or
Saturday night. With the parent low in southern Canada, very
little push and energy is available for the front in our area,
thus not really providing much cool air. Diurnal heating should
aid the front in enhancing the potential for some shower and
thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon and evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 225 AM Thursday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a cold
front on Monday. With systems nearly every day from today into
Monday, we are getting increasingly concerned with the threat
for flash flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be
followed by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly
cooler air, with yet another upper level wave on Wednesday.
Models continue to have some differences on the timing of the
cold front on Monday, as well as the strength and timing of the
upper level waves Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 100 AM Thursday...

Visible satellite and radar show a band of showers moving
northeast across the area along the Ohio River with another band
just to our east along the Greenbrier River Valley, but this set
looks to stay just outside our area. Some lightning was
previously being picked up in these, but most of the convection
and looks to be dying off at this point. That said VCTS was
taken out of most sites this cycle.

Mainly VFR to start, even with these showers around. Periods of
showers will be possible as a cold front stalls at our doorstep
in Ohio this morning. MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty winds are
likely within any showers. However, outside of any precipitation,
fog and low stratus will likely form this morning. Sites that
saw the most precipitation today will see more restrictions and
coverage. MVFR/IFR possible with with fog/low stratus.

There will likely be a brief period of improvement to VFR for
much of the area later this morning, but another round of
showers and storms will move from west to east through the area
between ~15-18Z, MVFR and IFR restrictions possible in vicinity
of storms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage, timing and intensity of fog/low
stratus could vary from the forecast. Timing and location of
storms today may vary.





EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 05/23/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible at times in showers and storms through Monday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC