-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
389
FXUS61 KRLX 221139
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
739 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Unseasonably warm once again today, as high pressure exits.
Cold front brings showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into
Thursday. Rain chances through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 738 AM Wednesday...

PoPs have been updated to account for ongoing early morning
shower activity over the northern WV mountains. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track this morning.

As of 630 AM Wednesday...

Updated PoPs and temperatures to reflect current obs. seeing
showers and thunderstorms approach the western periphery of the
forecast area, as well as some across the northern mountains.

As of 310 AM Wednesday...

High pressure overhead will slide east as the morning progresses.
ASOS sites are indicating the sheltered valleys across the forecast
area have decoupled and will see cooler overnight lows than blended
guidance output. Patchy fog is possible across the river valleys as
well.

A cold front to our west will approach and stall over Ohio later
today and tonight allowing for a chance for some showers and
thunderstorms. There is a slight risk for severe weather
today until Thursday morning; encompassing our NE KY counties,
up through Huntington and Parkersburg. A marginal risk for
severe weather exists elsewhere.

Scattered thunderstorms or showers could pop up anytime this
afternoon, especially during peak heating. A secondary round
comes in the evening and into the overnight hours as the front
gains some steam. A complex of storms, most likely linear in
nature, looks to form to our west before sundown. It will then
move across the forecast area from west to east. Any storms
could have damaging winds or small hail, especially with the
secondary round that will occur closer to sundown and there
after.

Instability parameters across the area are decent: 1,000-2,000
J/kg MLCAPE and MUCAPE, as well as 80-115 J/kg of 0-3kft AGL
CAPE. SE Ohio looks to have the best chance for severe weather
as they will have SBCAPE values of 2,000-2,500 J/kg and be
closer to the front meaning better lift.

Temperatures this afternoon will be above normal once again. 80s
across the lowlands with 70s and 80s in the mountains.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

A cold front will push into the area on Thursday. An upper
level short wave will then cause a wave along the front,
enhancing showers and thunderstorms for Thursday into Thursday
night.

The cold front will stall just south of the area late Thursday
night/Friday morning. An upper level short wave will then
interact with the front and cause a wave to move along the
front Friday afternoon into Saturday. Models continue to
struggle with the strength of the short wave, and hence how far
north the moisture gets and how strong the dynamics are with
this system. The Canadian actually keeps this system completely
south of the area.

A weak cold front will move into the area on Saturday. With the
parent low in southern Canada, very little push and energy is
available for the front in our area, thus not really providing
much cool air.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Models show a system lifting from the midwest on Sunday into
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will push a warm front
across the area on Sunday, followed by a cold front on Monday.
With systems nearly every day from later today into Monday, am
getting increasingly concerned with the threat for flash
flooding to occur for Sunday and Monday. This will be followed
by an upper level wave on Tuesday in the significantly cooler
air. Models still have differences during the Sunday through
Tuesday time period, but generally agree on the overall
features for the first time in numerous nighttime runs.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 650 AM Wednesday...

Maintaining VFR conditions through the morning and most of the
afternoon, as high pressure starts to slide east. Light SW winds
will be picking up across the the area this morning, could be
breezy at times later this morning into the afternoon.

Clouds will increase and thicken this morning as a cold front
approaches from the west. Some showers and storms are possible
this morning, mostly across the western edges of the forecast
area and along the mountains. CIGs will gradually lower as
well, but VFR CIGs will last through much of the day, unless
showers or thunderstorms are around.

Afternoon showers and storms this afternoon as the cold front
nears, but this is mostly of concern for the western lowlands of
WV, NE KY and SE Ohio until the evening and overnight hours when
scattered storms form. IFR conditions possible under any
showers and thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location and intensity of showers
and thunderstorms today and tonight could vary from the
forecast.




EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible with showers and thunderstorms
Thursday morning with a cold front. IFR possible in showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night and again on
Sunday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...LTC/JMC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...LTC