-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
421
FXUS63 KSGF 191041
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
541 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High confidence in above average temperatures this today into
  early this week (mid to upper 80s).

- Return of active weather and severe thunderstorm potential
  early to mid next week, with the highest chances on Tuesday
  night.

- Unsettled weather may persist through this week into Memorial
  Day Weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

An upper level ridge over the region will allow for one more
rather nice day across the Ozarks. Lingering surface high
pressure and winds slowly turning out of the south will provide
for another anonymously warm day across the area as well.
Afternoon highs will be in the middle to upper 80s which is
around 10 degrees above average for this time of year.

Through this evening, the upper level ridge will be shunted east
placing the region under southwesterly upper level flow. This
will also allow a front to make its way into the area late
tonight into early Monday morning. As this occurs, A surface low
develops in the plains with a MCS expected to be moving across
the central plains as well. Indications are that the MCS will be
weakening and may lift to the north as it makes its way into
the areas with the better potential for rain and storms along
and west of I-49 and north of the Highway 54 corridor into
Monday morning. Moisture with this system will make the trek
via the scenic route from west Texas which may limit storm
potential. If storms can continue through the night into the
region, isolated strong to severe storms will be possible with
damaging winds the main concern but some hail to quarters may
also be possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 157 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Looking into the coming week, a rather unsettled forecast is in
the offing. Through the week, the upper level pattern looks to
remain southwesterly with a semi-persistent upper trough over
the Rockies and the northwestern CONUS. Multiple waves of energy
will move through this pattern and make their way across the
plains and through the region.

Monday: To start the day, a decaying MCS will bring some rain
to areas mainly north of I-44 with some lingering storms as a
frontal boundary moves through the area.

Monday night - Tuesday: Winds will be on the increase through
the night Monday as the surface low in the plains shifts east
and the surface pressure gradient increases. For the most part,
Monday night should be quiet but with increasing winds. By
Tuesday, winds will be gusting from the south from 25 to 35 mph.
This will allow moisture to stream into the region in advance
of a strongly forced line of storms as a cold front moves into
the region Late Tuesday afternoon into the evening. This very
dynamic system will will move into the area as a negatively
tilted upper trough moves into the Great Lakes region. With good
instability, shear and moisture available, severe storms are
forecast to move through the region. All modes of severe
weather may be possible with this system.

Tuesday night - Wednesday: The frontal boundary will only make
slow progress through the region finally shifting southeast of
the area after midday Wednesday. The front will be the focus for
continuing chances for showers and storms through the day
Wednesday.

Thursday into Saturday: Several additional waves are forecast to
moves through the upper level pattern Thursday into the Holiday
weekend. Synoptic models do show dry periods but in generally,
the patterns looks wet overall for most of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 535 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024

Today will see generally clear skies and VFR flight conditions.
This evening, cloud cover will increase from west to east.
Showers and storms will also begin to move in from the west
early Monday morning, impacting the KJLN area.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024

Record High Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 90/1964
KJLN: 92/1956
KUNO: 89/1964

May 21:
KSGF: 91/1987
KJLN: 91/1987


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

May 20:
KSGF: 71/1902

May 21:
KSGF: 70/1902

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch
CLIMATE...Burchfield