Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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881 FXUS65 KABQ 241201 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 601 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Very dry weather, breezy to windy conditions, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected through Sunday. Winds will be lighter today compared to yesterday before the strongest winds of the week arrive Saturday afternoon. Wind gusts of up to 50 mph are possible across the northeast highlands and east central plains. Winds finally lighten up and temperatures heat up beginning Memorial Day as high pressure builds overhead. Surface moisture increases a little across eastern areas Memorial Day thanks to a cold front, but more moisture moves in from the east Tuesday and Wednesday and this could help result in the development of a few storms near the Texas border Tuesday afternoon and evening and eastern NM Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 A backdoor cold front sagging southwestward through the northeast and east central plains early this morning is forecast to stop at the eastern doorstep of Clines Corners and northeast doorstep of Roswell this morning, before retreating in the afternoon. Cool air behind the front will drop today`s high temperatures on the eastern plains a few to around 9 degrees from Thursday`s readings, while readings warm a few degrees over Thursday`s readings across most of the remainder of the forecast area. Winds aloft will weaken some today, but the surface will still be gusty and very dry. In fact, it will be gusty and dry enough for critical fire weather conditions across the Northeast Highlands from mid afternoon until sunset, including I-25 from Raton to Las Vegas. A perturbation crossing CO looks to have just enough mid level moisture with it for some isolated virga showers near the CO border in the Raton and Capulin area, where localized and erratic wind gusts could reach 45 mph. Winds will strengthen areawide on Saturday as an upper level trough crossing from the west steers the jet stream over the state. West and southwest wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph will be common, except up to 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain, and potentially up to 60 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains. Humidities will be very dry as well with widespread fire weather concerns. The Canadian and ECMWF Models depict the upper trough crossing with enough elevated moisture for isolated and gusty virga showers Saturday afternoon from the Four Corners to the Tusas Mountains, where localized and erratic dry microburst wind gusts could easily reach 50 mph given the strong flow aloft. We also expect well developed smoke plumes today through Saturday mainly to the east and northeast of the Indios Wildfire near Gallinas Mountain and Deadman Peak, and also from the Blue 2 Incident Wildfire in the northern Sacramento Mountains. The Sierra Blanca Regional Airport observed a low ceiling due to smoke for much of the night, and this is expected to continue today. The smoke will likely drain through river valleys into Ghost Ranch, Abiquiu, and Ruidoso this morning and again late tonight into Saturday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 Winds remain elevated Saturday night across the west central highlands, central mountain chain, and northeast and central highlands as Saturday`s shortwave trough exits into the Great Plains. Brisk northwest flow remains over the state on Sunday in the wake of the shortwave trough with 500 to 700 mb winds around 20 to 35 kts. The strongest winds with gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be from the northwest plateau including Farmington extending southwest to the east central plains including Clovis and Portales. Some critical fire weather conditions could be possible across the northeast and central highlands and east central plains with elevated fire weather conditions everywhere else. Surface moisture increases a bit across the eastern plains Sunday night into Monday morning due to a backdoor front entering that part of the state. There could be some gusty north and northeast winds on the leading edge of the backdoor front. Much lighter winds look to finally arrive areawide Memorial Day as upper level ridging builds over the state. Temperatures also begin to increase across western and central NM due to the higher upper level heights with Albuquerque probably seeing its first 90 degree day of the year on Tuesday (right around the average 1st 90 degree date of May 27th) and Farmington getting into the upper 80s. Overall, temperatures next week will be around to slightly above average. Now in regards to precipitation next week, eastern NM could see some chances, but its not impressive. Meager moisture from the backdoor front Monday morning quickly mixes out Monday afternoon. Return moisture from the Gulf of Mexico moves into eastern NM Monday night into Tuesday morning allowing dewpoints to increase to the 40s to mid 50s according to ensemble solutions. The moisture mixes east to West Texas midday, but could hold on long enough to result in a few showers and storms near the Texas border. Storms in West Texas Tuesday evening, will push the dryline and higher Gulf moisture east of it back west into New Mexico. Both the GFS and ECMWF solutions bring the moisture as far west as the RGV and into the ABQ Metro Wednesday morning resulting in light east canyon winds. Ensembles agree on an upper level trough moves into the Pacific NW Wednesday and the westerly flow south of this help push the moisture back east towards West Texas, but it could hang on long enough to allow for some showers and storms to develop across the eastern plains Wednesday afternoon and evening. However, the storm coverage look pretty meager from both the GFS and ECMWF. The dryline backs west again towards the central highlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but it appear the westerly flow at the base of the upper level trough (now moving into the northern Rockies) pushes that higher moisture and the better chances for showers and storms into West Texas. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 It now looks like a backdoor front will make it as far southwest as Roswell by late morning, before retreating during early afternoon. Farther north the front is forecast to bank up against the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains early this morning, then retreat by mid day. South and southwest winds will be gusty again this afternoon, but a little weaker than Thursday`s wind speeds. A broad area of mid and high clouds is also forecast to pass northward across the area today with cloud cover decreasing from south to north in the early evening. Smoke from well developed wildfires in the Sacramento Mountains and northwest of Abiquiu Lake will travel to the east and northeast today, then drain southeastward through river valleys tonight and Saturday morning. The smoke produced MVFR conditions at KSRR overnight, and it may do so again for a time this morning before the plume shifts north of the airport by mid day. Smoke will probably drain east and southeastward over KSRR with another round of MVFR ceilings and potentially visibilities tonight into early Saturday morning. Smoke may also produce MVFR conditions in smoke ceilings and potentially visibilities this afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 333 AM MDT Fri May 24 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS TODAY, AREAWIDE SATURDAY, AND THE EAST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY... The ongoing fire growing pattern will weaken some today due to weaker but still gusty and dry conditions, then strengthen with widespread strong winds on Saturday, before trending weaker. again Sunday. Winds look strong enough and humidities low enough for critical fire weather conditions today in the Northeast Highlands. Saturdays winds should commonly reach 35-45 mph, except up to 50 mph along and east of the central mountain chain where the greatest confidence exists for widespread critical fire weather conditions. Sunday, winds will weaken again, but still look strong enough for critical fire conditions to return to the Central Highlands. The weather pattern will then shift during the first half of the coming work week as a moist backdoor front and southeasterly return flow allow better moisture into eastern areas, and a ridge of high pressure crosses aloft. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 79 49 78 44 / 0 0 10 0 Dulce........................... 74 38 73 35 / 0 0 10 0 Cuba............................ 75 45 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 78 40 75 36 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 73 41 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 79 40 76 38 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 78 41 74 39 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 80 50 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 76 43 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 81 40 79 34 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 85 53 82 49 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 68 37 66 34 / 0 0 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 75 51 73 49 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 74 48 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 68 46 66 40 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 65 38 64 35 / 5 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 68 32 66 33 / 5 0 0 0 Taos............................ 76 40 74 38 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 73 44 71 45 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 83 48 81 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 76 51 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 79 48 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 83 56 82 54 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 85 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 87 52 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 85 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 87 50 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 86 53 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 86 49 87 49 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 86 54 84 51 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 86 51 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 81 55 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 85 54 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 89 53 90 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 75 52 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 78 51 78 49 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 79 47 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 80 42 80 44 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 75 46 75 45 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 78 47 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 78 47 79 45 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 82 56 83 52 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 76 53 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 71 43 76 43 / 5 0 0 0 Raton........................... 76 42 79 44 / 5 5 0 0 Springer........................ 77 43 80 47 / 5 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 76 46 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 76 48 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 Roy............................. 76 47 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 85 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 83 51 84 55 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 86 53 92 55 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 87 53 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 89 53 94 57 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 87 51 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 94 58 97 61 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 88 55 87 54 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 87 53 85 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for NMZ101-104>106-109-120>126. Red Flag Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 PM MDT this evening for NMZ123. Fire Weather Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening for NMZ125. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....71 AVIATION...44