857
FXUS65 KABQ 230615 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1215 AM MDT Thu May 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Heading into Memorial Day weekend, dry and windy conditions will
persist for several days including the holiday weekend. The driest
and windiest days are expected Thursday and Saturday resulting in
rapid fire growth for any fires that do start or the ongoing
fires that break containment. Wind gusts on Saturday certainly
could exceed 50 mph in some areas especially in the higher terrain
of New Mexico and the eastern plains. There will probably be some
areas of blowing dust in the usual areas and crosswinds to deal
with but the main concern will still be winds causing chaotic fire
behavior in any fires. While many people will want to camp, hike
or engage in outdoor activities this weekend, it is best not to do
anything with a flame or spark that could get out of control.
Unfortunately this means camp fires are a bad idea. Do not expect
any rainfall to help the situation because there is not hardly any
rainfall in the forecast for the next 7 days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Moderate and dry westerly flow prevails across the area with a
backdoor front across the eastern plains that is providing some
cooling relative to yesterday`s warm readings. Dry westerlies are
forecast to erode the frontal layer overnight and will mix down to
the surface quickly Thursday morning as an upper level trough
moves east across the central/southern Rockies. The trough will
steer stronger westerly winds aloft over the state Thursday and
bring a deepening lee side trough. Surface heating will bring
excellent daytime mixing up to near 500mb across the area and a
windy afternoon/evening is expected, but with speeds below
advisory threshold. Downslope winds on Thursday afternoon will
help bring highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A backdoor front will
push down the eastern plains Thursday night, bringing a wind shift
and a few hours of gusty northerly winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Overall the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are in pretty good agreement
with the general circulation pattern across the US. The GFS mean
500mb pattern may be a touch more amplified than the ECMWF
especially with the system expected on Saturday that drops down
all the way from Alaska. Deterministic solutions show similar
trends but also note the double jet structure setting up Saturday
with the polar jet coming in from the NW with an already energized
sub-tropical jet coming from the WSW. The jets do seem to couple
over NM late Saturday so the higher winds aloft could certainly
mix down with deep boundary layer mixing. This is also why
Saturday is looking like a solid fire weather day with the
potential for gusty winds to support fire growth and chaotic fire
behavior in any fires that develop or are on going. Beyond
Saturday winds do decrease with the departure of the trough and
strong jet streak. Weak ridging results through early next week.
The impact of this on the forecast is for high temps to increase
across much of the state. High temps in the 90s for ABQ and the
RGV are not out of the question and looking like a higher
probability at this point.

What about forecasted precipitation through the next 7 days?
Maybe a chance for NE and E NM for Tuesday and Wednesday next
week. So we are saying there is a chance. And if that chance does
come to fruition, then it will not be much rain. The main reason
for this is just that solid moisture advection to line up with any
lift in the atmosphere does not look to happen. PWAT values for
much of the next 7 days will be less than 0.5 inches with most
areas on most days around 0.2 inches. In fact, NA ensembles put
most days in the 10th percentile for PWAT. That is pretty dry or
if that does not convince you then perhaps minimum RH less than 10
percent most afternoons will. This all circles back to the
potential for critical fire weather conditions especially for the
overly windy days like this upcoming Saturday. Fire weather
section highlights more of those concerns.

Lastly we recognize this weekend is Memorial Day weekend which
means there will be a lot of people out hiking, biking, camping,
and fishing. Please do not do anything with a flame. What about
camp fires? Safer to not do a camp fire. In the winds Saturday
and probably even Sunday it is just not a good idea.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1157 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

Gusty, west and southwest, afternoon winds will be the main
weather concern the next 24 hours. A few smoke plumes over the
west central and northern mountains will become well developed in
the afternoon, when winds will be the strongest. An especially
well developed smoke plume is forecast to cross northwest and
north central NM from the Flagstaff, AZ area. See the HRRR Model`s
SW US smoke trajectories at https://shorturl.at/RBp7C .

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND EASTERN NM THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
ANTICIPATED SATURDAY...

Warm, dry, breezy/windy and unstable conditions will prevail
through the weekend with bouts of critical fire weather conditions
focusing on Thursday and especially Saturday. An upper level
trough moving east across the central/southern Rockies will steer
stronger winds aloft over the area Thursday and provide a
deepening lee side trough, bringing critical fire weather
conditions to the upper RGV and much of eastern NM. Went ahead and
upgraded the watch for Thursday to a warning. Winds will trend
down in the wake of the departing trough on Friday, but very dry
and unstable conditions will persist. A stronger trough will
approach a little further south on Saturday, steering even
stronger winds aloft over the area and creating and even deeper
lee side trough. The setup favors more widespread critical fire
weather conditions and a watch will likely be issued in the next
24hrs. Critical fire weather conditions may persist on Sunday,
especially across eastern NM, as strong winds aloft continue
behind the departing trough. A developing upper level ridge from
early to mid next week will bring much less wind. Low level
moisture may infiltrate eastern portions of the area next Tue/Wed
and fuel a few wetting storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  42  80  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  33  74  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  38  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  35  78  37  78 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  38  75  39  74 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  36  78  38  79 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  38  78  39  78 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  47  80  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  40  76  41  76 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  35  80  35  81 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  50  83  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  33  69  34  70 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  48  75  49  75 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  43  75  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  39  70  39  69 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  34  64  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  30  67  31  68 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  35  75  37  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  39  74  41  74 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  45  81  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  46  78  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  44  81  44  80 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  53  82  53  83 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  51  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  50  86  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  51  84  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  46  88  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  50  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  47  87  48  86 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  50  85  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  47  87  49  86 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  50  81  51  81 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  50  84  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  51  90  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  47  76  47  75 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  47  79  48  78 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  45  79  45  79 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  40  80  41  80 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  43  76  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  45  79  46  78 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  44  80  45  78 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  53  83  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  50  77  48  77 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  42  78  40  71 /  10   0   0   0
Raton...........................  40  82  40  77 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  41  83  42  78 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  42  79  43  76 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  48  87  46  76 /  10   0   0   0
Roy.............................  46  84  46  76 /   5   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  51  90  50  85 /   5   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  51  87  52  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  51  92  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  54  91  52  85 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  54  92  53  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  53  91  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  57  97  59  93 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  52  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  51  84  51  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-121-
123-125-126.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...44