Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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479 FXUS65 KABQ 222335 AAA AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 535 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Heading into Memorial Day weekend, dry and windy conditions will persist for several days including the holiday weekend. The driest and windiest days are expected Thursday and Saturday resulting in rapid fire growth for any fires that do start or the ongoing fires that break containment. Wind gusts on Saturday certainly could exceed 50 mph in some areas especially in the higher terrain of New Mexico and the eastern plains. There will probably be some areas of blowing dust in the usual areas and crosswinds to deal with but the main concern will still be winds causing chaotic fire behavior in any fires. While many people will want to camp, hike or engage in outdoor activities this weekend, it is best not to do anything with a flame or spark that could get out of control. Unfortunately this means camp fires are a bad idea. Do not expect any rainfall to help the situation because there is not hardly any rainfall in the forecast for the next 7 days. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Moderate and dry westerly flow prevails across the area with a backdoor front across the eastern plains that is providing some cooling relative to yesterday`s warm readings. Dry westerlies are forecast to erode the frontal layer overnight and will mix down to the surface quickly Thursday morning as an upper level trough moves east across the central/southern Rockies. The trough will steer stronger westerly winds aloft over the state Thursday and bring a deepening lee side trough. Surface heating will bring excellent daytime mixing up to near 500mb across the area and a windy afternoon/evening is expected, but with speeds below advisory threshold. Downslope winds on Thursday afternoon will help bring highs 5-10 degrees above normal. A backdoor front will push down the eastern plains Thursday night, bringing a wind shift and a few hours of gusty northerly winds. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 Overall the GFS and ECMWF ensembles are in pretty good agreement with the general circulation pattern across the US. The GFS mean 500mb pattern may be a touch more amplified than the ECMWF especially with the system expected on Saturday that drops down all the way from Alaska. Deterministic solutions show similar trends but also note the double jet structure setting up Saturday with the polar jet coming in from the NW with an already energized sub-tropical jet coming from the WSW. The jets do seem to couple over NM late Saturday so the higher winds aloft could certainly mix down with deep boundary layer mixing. This is also why Saturday is looking like a solid fire weather day with the potential for gusty winds to support fire growth and chaotic fire behavior in any fires that develop or are on going. Beyond Saturday winds do decrease with the departure of the trough and strong jet streak. Weak ridging results through early next week. The impact of this on the forecast is for high temps to increase across much of the state. High temps in the 90s for ABQ and the RGV are not out of the question and looking like a higher probability at this point. What about forecasted precipitation through the next 7 days? Maybe a chance for NE and E NM for Tuesday and Wednesday next week. So we are saying there is a chance. And if that chance does come to fruition, then it will not be much rain. The main reason for this is just that solid moisture advection to line up with any lift in the atmosphere does not look to happen. PWAT values for much of the next 7 days will be less than 0.5 inches with most areas on most days around 0.2 inches. In fact, NA ensembles put most days in the 10th percentile for PWAT. That is pretty dry or if that does not convince you then perhaps minimum RH less than 10 percent most afternoons will. This all circles back to the potential for critical fire weather conditions especially for the overly windy days like this upcoming Saturday. Fire weather section highlights more of those concerns. Lastly we recognize this weekend is Memorial Day weekend which means there will be a lot of people out hiking, biking, camping, and fishing. Please do not do anything with a flame. What about camp fires? Safer to not do a camp fire. In the winds Saturday and probably even Sunday it is just not a good idea. 39 && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 521 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. A few showers and associated erratic and gusty winds are possible from the northern mtns eastward to the TX border through sunset, but otherwise dry conditions will prevail the next 24hr as well. Gusty SW to W winds will taper off within the next couple hours across the region. There is a very low chance (<10%) that low clouds less than 3,000 ft develop over the Caprock in eastern NM for a few hours tonight before westerly winds scour out the shallow moisture. Breezy west winds develop again late morning tomorrow and will likely be a tad stronger than today`s winds. The strongest winds will be focused over the northern mtns and northeast plains where gusts to 40kts are possible early afternoon through the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 PM MDT Wed May 22 2024 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN NM THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER ANTICIPATED SATURDAY... Warm, dry, breezy/windy and unstable conditions will prevail through the weekend with bouts of critical fire weather conditions focusing on Thursday and especially Saturday. An upper level trough moving east across the central/southern Rockies will steer stronger winds aloft over the area Thursday and provide a deepening lee side trough, bringing critical fire weather conditions to the upper RGV and much of eastern NM. Went ahead and upgraded the watch for Thursday to a warning. Winds will trend down in the wake of the departing trough on Friday, but very dry and unstable conditions will persist. A stronger trough will approach a little further south on Saturday, steering even stronger winds aloft over the area and creating and even deeper lee side trough. The setup favors more widespread critical fire weather conditions and a watch will likely be issued in the next 24hrs. Critical fire weather conditions may persist on Sunday, especially across eastern NM, as strong winds aloft continue behind the departing trough. A developing upper level ridge from early to mid next week will bring much less wind. Low level moisture may infiltrate eastern portions of the area next Tue/Wed and fuel a few wetting storms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 42 80 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 33 74 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 38 74 40 76 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 35 78 37 78 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 38 75 39 74 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 36 78 38 79 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 38 78 39 78 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 47 80 47 80 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 40 76 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 35 80 35 81 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 50 83 49 85 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 33 69 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 48 75 49 75 / 0 0 0 0 Pecos........................... 43 75 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Cerro/Questa.................... 39 70 39 69 / 0 0 0 0 Red River....................... 34 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Angel Fire...................... 30 67 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 Taos............................ 35 75 37 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mora............................ 39 74 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Espanola........................ 45 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe........................ 46 78 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Fe Airport................ 44 81 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 53 82 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 51 84 53 85 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 50 86 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 51 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Belen........................... 46 88 50 87 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 50 85 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 47 87 48 86 / 0 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 50 85 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 47 87 49 86 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 50 81 51 81 / 0 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 50 84 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 51 90 51 89 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 47 76 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 47 79 48 78 / 0 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 45 79 45 79 / 0 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 40 80 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 43 76 43 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 45 79 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 44 80 45 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 53 83 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 50 77 48 77 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 42 78 40 71 / 10 0 0 0 Raton........................... 40 82 40 77 / 0 0 0 0 Springer........................ 41 83 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Las Vegas....................... 42 79 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 Clayton......................... 48 87 46 76 / 10 0 0 0 Roy............................. 46 84 46 76 / 5 0 0 0 Conchas......................... 51 90 50 85 / 5 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 51 87 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 51 92 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 54 91 52 85 / 0 0 0 0 Portales........................ 54 92 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 53 91 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 57 97 59 93 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 52 87 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 51 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ104-121- 123-125-126. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....39 AVIATION...16