Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
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626 FXUS65 KABQ 280933 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 333 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 An upper level ridge of high pressure will move over the Rockies today, and while this feature typically brings fair weather, there will be some low layer moisture that intrudes into far eastern New Mexico, potentially leading to shower and thunderstorm development there. Some storms may even turn strong to severe, particularly in northeastern parts of New Mexico and along the Texas border where large hail and damaging winds may accompany. A few showers and thunderstorms will be possible again on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly in the northeastern corner of the state where brief gusty winds may quickly develop beneath any storms. Elsewhere around the state, dry conditions with generally light to moderate breezes are forecast with seasonable temperatures for late May. A fairly similar weather pattern will persist through the end of this week with drier conditions expected to follow early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 A perturbation embedded in a ridge of high pressure aloft will work its way over the forecast area today from the southwest. It will work with low level moisture that worked its way into eastern parts of the forecast area from the east overnight to produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening over northeast and east central areas, with scattered to isolated activity further west over the northern mountains, and also further south across the far southeast plains. On the eastern plains, 0-6 KM bulk shear in the 35-45 KT range, and surface based CAPE around 1000-3000 J/KG, should enable some severe thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Meanwhile, inverted-V sounding profiles on the western edge of the moisture in the northern mountains indicate isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon capable of dry microbursts with localized and erratic wind gusts up to 50 mph (from the spine of the Sangres westward). This evening, mesoscale models depict a strong aggregated outflow boundary from the convection over northeast areas being propelled southwestward through the central highlands and southeast plains with wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph. This boundary will plunge through gaps in the central mountain chain with a potentially strong east wind below canyons opening into the central valley from Santa Fe southward from late evening through the late night hours. Previous runs of the METMOS Guidance suggested sustained winds of 29 KT below Tijeras Canyon in Albuquerque late Tuesday night, but it has since weakened speeds some. If the thunderstorm outflows are strong enough, we could easily experience 50 mph gusts in Albuquerque. Later shifts will need to keep an eye on trends in case we need to issue a Wind Advisory. Late Tuesday night, isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast to linger over eastern areas, as a trailing disturbance works its way through the ridge aloft. In addition, widespread low clouds are forecast east of the central mountain chain, some of which will probably work their way over Santa Fe with the southeast canyon wind there. On Wednesday afternoon, with plenty of low level moisture in place, an upper level trough working its way through the northern and central Rockies will be able to trigger another round of scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms over eastern areas and as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Again, some dry and gusty cells will be possible on the west slopes of the Sangres. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 The dryline will meander over eastern NM Wednesday night into Thursday morning before mostly mixing eastward into the afternoon hours. With a weak surface low expected to develop to the lee of the central mountain chain, there will be an opportunity for some east northeast surface flow to be retained over far northeastern zones (Union co and vicinity) where higher dewpoints could be held in the backed flow, but much of the remainder of eastern NM would likely see dewpoints plummet. This will keep a chance for storms in far northeastern zones with some strong to severe characteristics possible (mainly downburst winds). Otherwise relatively light (compared to the first half of May) zonal flow aloft will prevail with high temperatures staying within a few degrees of average and reaching the upper 70s, 80s and low 90s in most areas. Convection in eastern CO will help push a weak surface boundary into northeast and eventually all of eastern NM Thursday night into Friday morning. This will recharge moisture with rising dewpoints again. However, the moisture would likely retreat back eastward into Friday afternoon with again only far northeastern NM likely retaining sufficient fuel for any showers or storms. The same song and dance will then likely repeat Friday night into Saturday morning with moisture sloshing back into eastern NM once again, only to push back toward the TX border as a sharpening dryline where convection will mostly initiate on the TX side Saturday afternoon. A couple of gentle negatively-tilted troughs aloft are forecast Sunday into early next week, periodically crossing the eastern Pacific into the southwestern and southern plains states. These ill-defined features do not appear to have much strength or organization, but will occasionally exhibit a subtropical jet segment that would likely bring a bit more more breeziness and drier air that will pose more difficulty for storm development, even in far eastern NM. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024 A northeasterly and easterly wind shift is forecast over northern and central areas during the late night hours, and it could have a few rogue gusts with it in places like KSAF, KAEG, and KABQ. Meanwhile, low clouds are expected to develop over and south of the eastern NM Caprock (where the biggest wind farm is) late tonight into early Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions possible in Clovis and Portales, but probably not as far west as Fort Sumner and Roswell. The low clouds could get into Tucumcari from 10-16Z this morning, but models keep the thicker cloud cover south of there, so we did not have enough confidence to forecast a ceiling in the KTCC TAF. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are then forecast over northeast NM Tuesday afternoon and evening, with scattered to isolated activity farther south across the east central and far southeast plains, and spottier activity farther west over the northern mountains. Some thunderstorms over the east will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Mesoscale models depict a strong aggregate outflow boundary from all the storms in northeast NM advancing swiftly west and southwestward across the eastern plains late Tuesday afternoon and evening with wind gusts commonly in the 35-45 kt range, probably reaching places like KSAF and KABQ with a strong east canyon wind from late evening into the late night hours, and KROW with a strong north wind for a few hours during late evening. In addition, there will be a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms in the northern mountains Tuesday afternoon, and probably scattered to isolated virga showers. Dry microbursts in the northern mountains will be capable of localized, brief and erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt until sunset. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024 Moisture will continue to slosh into the eastern plains nightly with backdoor fronts, then mix eastward with an active dryline each day through the end of the week. Daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains and as far west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are forecast on the western edge of the moisture, which could result in a few fire starts in the northern mountains today, and along the west slopes of the Sangres Wednesday. Elsewhere, it will be dry and warm with high temperatures near to around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 88 50 87 48 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 84 38 84 38 / 5 0 5 0 Cuba............................ 82 46 82 46 / 0 0 5 0 Gallup.......................... 84 42 84 40 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 80 46 80 40 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 85 42 85 43 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 82 47 83 42 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 84 52 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 81 49 82 45 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 87 42 87 37 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 91 58 90 50 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 77 40 77 39 / 10 0 10 0 Los Alamos...................... 81 54 79 55 / 10 10 10 10 Pecos........................... 81 50 79 49 / 10 20 30 20 Cerro/Questa.................... 76 47 75 44 / 20 10 20 10 Red River....................... 71 39 71 34 / 30 20 20 20 Angel Fire...................... 73 36 72 29 / 30 20 30 20 Taos............................ 82 43 81 41 / 20 10 10 10 Mora............................ 78 44 76 45 / 30 20 40 20 Espanola........................ 89 50 87 49 / 10 5 10 10 Santa Fe........................ 84 53 82 50 / 10 10 20 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 86 51 85 48 / 5 10 20 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 89 58 87 56 / 0 5 10 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 90 57 89 58 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 92 55 91 51 / 0 0 5 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 90 57 89 57 / 0 0 5 0 Belen........................... 92 52 91 52 / 0 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 91 56 90 56 / 0 0 5 0 Bosque Farms.................... 91 51 91 50 / 0 0 5 0 Corrales........................ 91 56 90 55 / 0 0 5 0 Los Lunas....................... 91 53 90 52 / 0 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 86 56 86 55 / 0 5 5 5 Rio Rancho...................... 90 57 90 57 / 0 0 5 0 Socorro......................... 95 56 94 56 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 81 53 79 51 / 0 10 10 5 Tijeras......................... 84 53 83 52 / 0 10 10 5 Edgewood........................ 86 50 85 49 / 0 10 10 5 Moriarty/Estancia............... 86 48 85 44 / 0 10 10 10 Clines Corners.................. 81 48 79 48 / 5 10 20 10 Mountainair..................... 84 50 84 50 / 0 10 10 0 Gran Quivira.................... 84 50 84 50 / 0 5 5 0 Carrizozo....................... 89 55 89 56 / 0 0 5 0 Ruidoso......................... 82 50 81 49 / 0 10 10 5 Capulin......................... 78 46 74 47 / 70 20 50 30 Raton........................... 83 47 79 47 / 40 20 40 20 Springer........................ 84 49 79 49 / 40 20 40 20 Las Vegas....................... 81 49 77 48 / 20 40 30 30 Clayton......................... 82 53 78 56 / 60 50 40 30 Roy............................. 84 51 77 54 / 40 40 40 40 Conchas......................... 91 57 86 58 / 20 30 30 30 Santa Rosa...................... 89 55 82 56 / 10 20 20 20 Tucumcari....................... 91 56 85 60 / 20 30 30 30 Clovis.......................... 94 58 83 61 / 20 20 20 20 Portales........................ 95 57 84 60 / 10 20 20 20 Fort Sumner..................... 94 58 87 59 / 10 20 20 20 Roswell......................... 101 63 92 64 / 0 10 10 10 Picacho......................... 94 55 87 56 / 0 10 10 5 Elk............................. 92 52 90 54 / 0 10 10 5 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....52 AVIATION...44