626
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
333 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

An upper level ridge of high pressure will move over the Rockies
today, and while this feature typically brings fair weather, there
will be some low layer moisture that intrudes into far eastern New
Mexico, potentially leading to shower and thunderstorm development
there. Some storms may even turn strong to severe, particularly in
northeastern parts of New Mexico and along the Texas border where
large hail and damaging winds may accompany. A few showers and
thunderstorms will be possible again on Wednesday and Thursday,
mainly in the northeastern corner of the state where brief gusty
winds may quickly develop beneath any storms. Elsewhere around the
state, dry conditions with generally light to moderate breezes are
forecast with seasonable temperatures for late May. A fairly
similar weather pattern will persist through the end of this week
with drier conditions expected to follow early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

A perturbation embedded in a ridge of high pressure aloft will work
its way over the forecast area today from the southwest. It will
work with low level moisture that worked its way into eastern
parts of the forecast area from the east overnight to produce
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms afternoon and
evening over northeast and east central areas, with scattered to
isolated activity further west over the northern mountains, and
also further south across the far southeast plains. On the eastern
plains, 0-6 KM bulk shear in the 35-45 KT range, and surface
based CAPE around 1000-3000 J/KG, should enable some severe
thunderstorms to develop Tuesday afternoon and evening with a risk
of large hail and damaging winds. Meanwhile, inverted-V sounding
profiles on the western edge of the moisture in the northern
mountains indicate isolated dry thunderstorms this afternoon
capable of dry microbursts with localized and erratic wind gusts
up to 50 mph (from the spine of the Sangres westward). This
evening, mesoscale models depict a strong aggregated outflow
boundary from the convection over northeast areas being propelled
southwestward through the central highlands and southeast plains
with wind gusts potentially up to 45 mph. This boundary will
plunge through gaps in the central mountain chain with a
potentially strong east wind below canyons opening into the
central valley from Santa Fe southward from late evening through
the late night hours. Previous runs of the METMOS Guidance
suggested sustained winds of 29 KT below Tijeras Canyon in
Albuquerque late Tuesday night, but it has since weakened speeds
some. If the thunderstorm outflows are strong enough, we could
easily experience 50 mph gusts in Albuquerque. Later shifts will
need to keep an eye on trends in case we need to issue a Wind
Advisory. Late Tuesday night, isolated showers and thunderstorms
are forecast to linger over eastern areas, as a trailing
disturbance works its way through the ridge aloft. In addition,
widespread low clouds are forecast east of the central mountain
chain, some of which will probably work their way over Santa Fe
with the southeast canyon wind there.

On Wednesday afternoon, with plenty of low level moisture in place,
an upper level trough working its way through the northern and
central Rockies will be able to trigger another round of scattered
to isolated showers and thunderstorms over eastern areas and as far
west as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.  Again, some dry and gusty
cells will be possible on the west slopes of the Sangres.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

The dryline will meander over eastern NM Wednesday night into
Thursday morning before mostly mixing eastward into the afternoon
hours. With a weak surface low expected to develop to the lee of
the central mountain chain, there will be an opportunity for some
east northeast surface flow to be retained over far northeastern
zones (Union co and vicinity) where higher dewpoints could be held
in the backed flow, but much of the remainder of eastern NM would
likely see dewpoints plummet. This will keep a chance for storms
in far northeastern zones with some strong to severe
characteristics possible (mainly downburst winds). Otherwise
relatively light (compared to the first half of May) zonal flow
aloft will prevail with high temperatures staying within a few
degrees of average and reaching the upper 70s, 80s and low 90s
in most areas.

Convection in eastern CO will help push a weak surface boundary
into northeast and eventually all of eastern NM Thursday night
into Friday morning. This will recharge moisture with rising
dewpoints again. However, the moisture would likely retreat back
eastward into Friday afternoon with again only far northeastern NM
likely retaining sufficient fuel for any showers or storms. The
same song and dance will then likely repeat Friday night into
Saturday morning with moisture sloshing back into eastern NM once
again, only to push back toward the TX border as a sharpening
dryline where convection will mostly initiate on the TX side
Saturday afternoon.

A couple of gentle negatively-tilted troughs aloft are forecast
Sunday into early next week, periodically crossing the eastern
Pacific into the southwestern and southern plains states. These
ill-defined features do not appear to have much strength or
organization, but will occasionally exhibit a subtropical jet
segment that would likely bring a bit more more breeziness and
drier air that will pose more difficulty for storm development,
even in far eastern NM.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1149 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

A northeasterly and easterly wind shift is forecast over northern
and central areas during the late night hours, and it could have
a few rogue gusts with it in places like KSAF, KAEG, and KABQ.
Meanwhile, low clouds are expected to develop over and south of
the eastern NM Caprock (where the biggest wind farm is) late
tonight into early Tuesday morning with MVFR conditions possible
in Clovis and Portales, but probably not as far west as Fort
Sumner and Roswell. The low clouds could get into Tucumcari from
10-16Z this morning, but models keep the thicker cloud cover south
of there, so we did not have enough confidence to forecast a
ceiling in the KTCC TAF. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are then forecast over northeast NM Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with scattered to isolated activity farther
south across the east central and far southeast plains, and
spottier activity farther west over the northern mountains. Some
thunderstorms over the east will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging winds. Mesoscale models depict a strong
aggregate outflow boundary from all the storms in northeast NM
advancing swiftly west and southwestward across the eastern plains
late Tuesday afternoon and evening with wind gusts commonly in
the 35-45 kt range, probably reaching places like KSAF and KABQ
with a strong east canyon wind from late evening into the late
night hours, and KROW with a strong north wind for a few hours
during late evening. In addition, there will be a mix of wet and
dry thunderstorms in the northern mountains Tuesday afternoon, and
probably scattered to isolated virga showers. Dry microbursts in
the northern mountains will be capable of localized, brief and
erratic wind gusts up to 45 kt until sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Moisture will continue to slosh into the eastern plains nightly
with backdoor fronts, then mix eastward with an active dryline
each day through the end of the week. Daily rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected on the eastern plains and as far west
as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A mix of wet and dry
thunderstorms are forecast on the western edge of the moisture,
which could result in a few fire starts in the northern mountains
today, and along the west slopes of the Sangres Wednesday.
Elsewhere, it will be dry and warm with high temperatures near to
around 7 degrees above 1991-2020 averages each afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  88  50  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  84  38  84  38 /   5   0   5   0
Cuba............................  82  46  82  46 /   0   0   5   0
Gallup..........................  84  42  84  40 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  80  46  80  40 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  85  42  85  43 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  82  47  83  42 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  84  52  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  81  49  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  87  42  87  37 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  91  58  90  50 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  77  40  77  39 /  10   0  10   0
Los Alamos......................  81  54  79  55 /  10  10  10  10
Pecos...........................  81  50  79  49 /  10  20  30  20
Cerro/Questa....................  76  47  75  44 /  20  10  20  10
Red River.......................  71  39  71  34 /  30  20  20  20
Angel Fire......................  73  36  72  29 /  30  20  30  20
Taos............................  82  43  81  41 /  20  10  10  10
Mora............................  78  44  76  45 /  30  20  40  20
Espanola........................  89  50  87  49 /  10   5  10  10
Santa Fe........................  84  53  82  50 /  10  10  20  20
Santa Fe Airport................  86  51  85  48 /   5  10  20  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  89  58  87  56 /   0   5  10   5
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  57  89  58 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  55  91  51 /   0   0   5   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  90  57  89  57 /   0   0   5   0
Belen...........................  92  52  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  91  56  90  56 /   0   0   5   0
Bosque Farms....................  91  51  91  50 /   0   0   5   0
Corrales........................  91  56  90  55 /   0   0   5   0
Los Lunas.......................  91  53  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  86  56  86  55 /   0   5   5   5
Rio Rancho......................  90  57  90  57 /   0   0   5   0
Socorro.........................  95  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  81  53  79  51 /   0  10  10   5
Tijeras.........................  84  53  83  52 /   0  10  10   5
Edgewood........................  86  50  85  49 /   0  10  10   5
Moriarty/Estancia...............  86  48  85  44 /   0  10  10  10
Clines Corners..................  81  48  79  48 /   5  10  20  10
Mountainair.....................  84  50  84  50 /   0  10  10   0
Gran Quivira....................  84  50  84  50 /   0   5   5   0
Carrizozo.......................  89  55  89  56 /   0   0   5   0
Ruidoso.........................  82  50  81  49 /   0  10  10   5
Capulin.........................  78  46  74  47 /  70  20  50  30
Raton...........................  83  47  79  47 /  40  20  40  20
Springer........................  84  49  79  49 /  40  20  40  20
Las Vegas.......................  81  49  77  48 /  20  40  30  30
Clayton.........................  82  53  78  56 /  60  50  40  30
Roy.............................  84  51  77  54 /  40  40  40  40
Conchas.........................  91  57  86  58 /  20  30  30  30
Santa Rosa......................  89  55  82  56 /  10  20  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  91  56  85  60 /  20  30  30  30
Clovis..........................  94  58  83  61 /  20  20  20  20
Portales........................  95  57  84  60 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  94  58  87  59 /  10  20  20  20
Roswell......................... 101  63  92  64 /   0  10  10  10
Picacho.........................  94  55  87  56 /   0  10  10   5
Elk.............................  92  52  90  54 /   0  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...44