671
FXAK69 PAFG 312155
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
155 PM AKDT Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A summer-like pattern is here for the Interior as temps rise into
the 70s with showers and storms developing each afternoon through
the short term. An arctic front will be dropping south over the
North Slope this weekend with colder temperatures, light snow and
the potential for some rain or mixed precipitation. The West
Coast will remain cooler with a chance for showers in the higher
terrain of the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper Levels and Analysis...
The 12z models initiated well aloft as there is a trough in the
arctic beginning to drop south, weak ridging from the Yukon and
Northwest Territory extending through the Interior to Wrangell
Island. There is also a 519 decameter low in the Western Bering
and a 538 decameter low in the Gulf of Alaska. All together, this
is bringing easterly to southeasterly flow over the Interior and
West Coast as well as weak northwesterly flow turning southerly
over the North Slope. The overall pattern shouldn`t change too
much as the low in the Gulf of Alaska remains the driver for
Easterly flow through the weekend, then gets rejuvenated next
week as the currently low in the Western Bering moves in. A trough
in the high arctic will drop south tomorrow and bring strong
offshore flow from Utqiagvik east. The main arctic low then drops
over Point Lay Sunday night and to the Seward Peninsula by Monday
afternoon.

Surface Analysis...
Showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing in the Interior,
especially over the higher terrain. These will become more
numerous this afternoon as a front lifts north over the AK Range.
Around Fairbanks, there is a chance for a shower or storm, but the
greatest risk remains north and east over the White Mountains.
Skies had cleared over much of the Arctic Coast west of Nuiqsut this
morning, but stratus and some fog will move in again this evening
and overnight. In Western AK, northerly winds near gale force will
develop from Point Hope through the Bering Strait tomorrow
evening. Much of Western Alaska remains dry today but there will
be a few showers and even the slight chance for a storm over the
higher terrain.

West Coast and Western Interior...
A very nice day in Western Alaska today with highs in the 60s to
near 70 inland, and 50s to near 60 along the coast. The only
exception will be from St. Lawrence Island northward where
temperatures will be in the 30s to 40. A few showers and an
isolated storm are possible over the higher terrain today while
most low elevation areas remain dry. Temperatures tomorrow will
be comparable to today with a bit more numerous showers and
storms. Northerly winds will be increasing along the Bering Strait
Coast with gale force gusts likely tomorrow night through Sunday.
There may be an isolated snow or rain shower as well. With these
northerly winds, temperatures will cool by about 10 to 15 degrees
across Western Alaska with highs around freezing from St. Lawrence
Island through the Bering Strait.

Central and Eastern Interior...
It will be a warm one today with highs reaching the low to mid 70s
across much of the Interior. Showers and storms have already
developed along the terrain and will become more numerous this
afternoon. Heavy rain, small hail and erratic winds will be
possible with any storm. Similar conditions tomorrow with showers
and storms, mainly over the higher terrain but temperatures will
be a few degrees warmer across the board. On Sunday, temperatures
cool back down to the 60s to near 70 because of some more
widespread rain and clouds. The greatest chance for showers and
thunderstorms seems to be setting up north and west of Fairbanks,
but timing of the front will be key. Either way, this front
should bring rain which may be heavy at times, especially over the
higher terrain with wetting rains possible in the valleys Sunday
afternoon and evening. Showers and storms continue for the next
several days.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Clear skies west of Nuiqsut will cloud up tonight with some fog
developing along the coast. A front will then drop south tomorrow
night with snow developing on Sunday as snow levels drop to sea
level over parts of the NW Arctic. Overall, accumulations look to
be 1 inch or less and it may transition to a mix of snow and
freezing drizzle from Utqiagvik east on Monday. N winds will
be fairly strong through Point Hope gusting into gale force range
by late Sat. For the northern slopes of the Brooks Range,
specifically Atigun and Anaktuvuk Pass, there is a chance for snow
Saturday night through Monday. The heaviest looks to come Sunday
night through Monday morning with accumulating snow becoming more
likely. At this time, exact accumulations are uncertain but
amounts up to 4 inches are possible in the Passes with up to 6
inches above 5000 feet. Looking further, we are monitoring a
warming trend towards the middle of next week with the chance for
showers and storms in the Brooks Range.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Isolated to widely scattered wet thunderstorms today will
generally favor the White Mtns into the S Yukon Flats, which is
where the best axis of instability is, with general isolated wet
thunder across most of the remainder of the Interior, from
Fairbanks north. Today is also warming and drying in valleys. Sat
is the warmest and driest day RH wise, with near red flag
conditions as northeast winds to 10 mph will be likely across the
Interior, along with temps around 75 and min RH around 20-25
percent. Isolated wet thunder looks fairly spotty Sat with ridging
aloft supporting mostly higher terrain thunder north of Fairbanks
and over the Fortymile. Sunday, an easterly wave brings more
chances for heavier showers with continued isolated wet thunder
chances.

Out west, drying trend with general afternoon showers and isolated
wet thunderstorms over the Interior the next couple days. Strong
north winds and cooler temps will blast down along the coast from
Sat through Mon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will continue receding very slowly.
Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant
snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week,
snowmelt could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine
and the interrelated sloughs.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ810-811-851-854-857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812-858.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
&&

$$

Bianco