332
FXAK69 PAFG 250040
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
440 PM AKDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and wet conditions will become trend cooler and drier over
the weekend in most areas, with windy conditions over the Brooks
Range and NW Alaska spreading south over the West Coast Sat into
Sun.

A low over Kuskokwim Bay will move east tonight. This causing
widespread showers across Southwest Interior today that will
taper off to isolated to scattered showers by Sat.

An old occluded front that lies from Point Hope to Eagle will
move to Point Hope to Old Crow tonight and then dissipated over
NE AK on Sat. Numerous to scattered showers along the occluded
front will taper off to isolated to scattered showers by Sat
except over NE AK where showers will fall as snow and continue
into Sat night. This brought significant rain (0.25 to 0.70 inch) to
most of the Eastern Interior today.

A thermal low pressure trough that lies from Chicken to Fairbanks
to Galena will move south to Northway to McGrath by Sat and
remain in place through Sun then move to Eagle to Fairbanks
to McGrath on Mon. Scattered showers along the thermal trough
will taper off to isolated to scattered showers by Sat. Isolated
PM thunderstorms are expected today between Eagle and Galena, and
from Northway to Denali on Sat.

A low well north of the Arctic Coast of Alaska will move to 100 NM
southwest of Nuiqsut as a 1018 mb low by 4pm Sat, and to 100 NM
east of Kotzebue as a 1010 mb low by 3pm Sun, then remain near
Kotzebue into Mon. A cold front along the crest of the Brooks
Range will move south with this low on Sat, moving over the south
slope of the Brooks Range to Point Hope by 4pm Sat, to Arctic
Village to the Bering Strait by 4am Sun, to Old Crow to Ambler to
the Yukon Delta by 4pm Sun and then from Anaktuvuk Pass to Ambler
to Bethel by Mon.

These features are causing snow over the Eastern North Slope that
will spread to the Western North Slope on Sat night and taper off on
Sun. Expect 4-6 inches of snow along the Central and Eastern
Brooks Range tonight through Sat night.

The cold front is causing strong northeast winds of 25 mph gusting
to 40 mph over the Brooks Range and NW AK now that will spread
south along the West Coast Sat PM into Sun, with north winds of 15
mph across the Western Interior Sat night and Sun. This combined
with the snow will cause limited visibility in Brooks Range Passes
late tonight into Sat night.

An upper level disturbance will will approach the SE Interior
from the east on Sun and Mon. This will bring more wetting rain to
the SE Interior Sun into Mon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
At 12Z models initialize fairly well aloft. Models show similar
solutions aloft through 4am Sun, then the NAM takes the low
aloft over Western AK on a more southerly track than other models.
Will use a blend of models through Sat night, then rely more on
the GFS/ECMWF and Canadian for Sun into Mon.

The long wave trough over AK will persist through the weekend then
retrograde west next week as a ridge gradually builds over Northern
AK through the week. This means cool and damp conditions will
continue through the weekend, with gradual warming next week.

A short wave near Eagle will move north over NE AK tonight.
A second and stronger short wave over the High Arctic will drop
south over the Central North Slope on Sat and combine with the
first short wave, then move over NW Ak on Sun and remain over NW
Ak into Mon before moving east on Tue. This is setting up for the
snow over the Eastern North Slope tonight into Sat that will
spread west Sat night and Sun. This is also setting up to push the
surface cold front south along with colder air and strong north
winds over NW AK tonight into Sat and Over the West Coast Sat into
Sun.

With precipitation we used a blend of models for today through Sat night,
then excluding the NAM for Sun into Mon since it was an outlier aloft.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cool and wet conditions will become cool and drier over
the weekend.

An old occluded front that lies from Point Hope to Eagle will
move to Point Hope to Old Crow tonight and then dissipated over
NE AK on Sat. Numerous to scattered showers along the occluded
front will taper off to isolated to scattered showers by Sat
except over NE AK where showers will continue into Sat night.
This brought wetting rain to most of the Eastern Interior today.

A thermal low pressure trough that lies from Chicken to Fairbanks
to Galena will move south to Northway to McGrath by Sat and
remain in place through Sun then move to Eagle to Fairbanks
to McGrath on Mon. A cold front over the North Slope will push
south over the Northern Interior on Sat, and continue south
across the West Coast of Alaska on Sun.

Scattered showers along the thermal trough will taper off to
isolated to scattered showers by Sat. Isolated PM thunderstorms
are expected today between Eagle and Galena, and from Northway
to Denali on Sat.

An upper level disturbance will will approach the SE Interior
from the east  on Sun and Mon. This will bring more wetting
rain to the SE Interior Sun into Mon.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ice Jam Flooding continues on the Yukon Delta at Emmonak, Alakanuk
and Nunam Iqua. Minor flooding similar to that of 2023 has been
reported with some roads and low lying areas flooded.

A flood warning was issued for Fort Yukon and remains in affect
until next Wed. Water has poured into low lying areas east of Fort
Yukon and was reported to be rising rapidly today with water 6
inches to 1 ft below impacting low areas of the runway. It is
expected that flooding will be similar to 2023, with water flowing
into low section of Fort Yukon later today or Sat, cresting on Sun
or Mon, then falling very slowly next week.

A flood watch remains for the Yukon Delta near Kotlik.A jam
remains in place with high water. Not flooding has been reported
but if the ice shifts is could push water into town.


&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
     Flood Warning for AKZ825
     Flood Warning for AKZ 833
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850-851-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$

JB