Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
797 FXAK69 PAFG 231242 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 442 AM AKDT Thu May 23 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The West Coast and Western Interior are wet and cool and will remain so through the weekend. Numerous rain showers will develop over the Interior Today, but the models are trending for the highest pops to be over the Eastern Interior and higher elvations north of Fairbanks. Some of these showers will be heavy at times and expecting .50 to .75 inches of rainfall over the Eastern Interior through Friday. The North Slope has near normal temperatures along with coastal stratus and fog that will continue into the weekend. Snow expected with several inches possible over the Eastern Brooks Range Thursday night into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Upper Levels and Analysis... The long wave pattern consists of a trough over the Bering and Chukchi Seas, a ridge over the NE Pacific north over eastern Alaska. A series of short wave troughs will move east across southern AK from through the weekend, eventually pulling the long wave east over Mainland AK by the weekend. This will change the current warm Eastern Interior to cooler and wetter Thu into the weekend, while the cool and wet West Coast remain so into the weekend, and the North Slope has little change through Thu then cools over the weekend. Central and Eastern Interior... Numerous rain showers will develop Today, but the models are trending for the highest pops to be over the Eastern Interior and higher elvations north of Fairbanks. Some of these showers will be heavy at times and expecting .50 to .75 inches of rainfall over the Eastern Interior through Friday. Showers persist into Friday along with a downtrend in high temps through Friday. A chance of thunderstorms also possible near the Alcan Border and to Fort Yukon to Bettles this afternoon. Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior this weekend and early next week with continued wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. West Coast and Western Interior... The Western Interior and West Coast is will remain wet and cool through the end of the week. Showers will persist over the west coast and inland areas around a low pressure center in the Bering. A slight chance of thunderstorms over the western Interior this afternoon as well. A short wave in the SW Bering will move over the SE Bering on Thu, over SW AK on Fri, and into the Gulf of AK on Sat. This will push a vertically stacked surface low east. A stronger short wave will move from the High Arctic to near Utqiagvik Sat night and then drop south over NW AK on Sun and over SW AK on Mon. This will bring much cooler temps to the West Coast Sun into Mon. Strong northerly winds will develop in the Bering Strait late Fri night into Saturday with near gale force winds over the water. North Slope and Brooks Range... Easterly winds will become stronger from Point Lay west to Point Hope Friday into Saturday. A weather system will bring snow to the Brooks Range Passes Thursday night into Saturday. Expect snow showers to begin Thursday night and persist through Saturday morning. Snowfall amounts around 2 to 5 inches with the heaviest accumulations over the higher elevations of the Dalton Highway. Northerly winds will increase to 15 to 25 mph on Friday as well producing blowing snow and low visibility with the snow showers. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Scattered to numerous showers expected on Thursday over the Eastern Intrior with cooler temps into Fri. Some of these showers could be heavy at times. Expecting .50 to .75 inches of rainfall over the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range through Friday. Scattered to numerous showers possible on Friday as well. Easterly waves will continue to move over the southern Interior this weekend and early next week with continued wetting rain chances for the Eastern Interior and Eastern Alaska Range. && .HYDROLOGY... Lower Yukon break-up continues as running ice and high water remain at St Mary`s, Pitkas Point and Mountain Village and a ice jam flood watch remains for those areas through Thursday. The break up front is now downstream of Mountain Village and will likely get to the Yukon Delta at Alakanuk, Emmonak, Nunam Iqua and Kotlik sometime between late tonight and Fri, bringing the risk of ice jam flooding to those areas tonight through Fri. Flood watches are out for all these areas. The water levels along the Porcupine River at the Border rose to record levels over the weekend due to heavy snowmelt. This high water is expected to reach Ft Yukon on Wed, where it will gradually fills sloughs and swales east of Ft Yukon and eventually bring high water into Ft Yukon late this week with high water continuing into next week. A flood watch is valid front this Wed through next week Wed. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825. Flood Watch for AKZ833. PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-857. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816. Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ850. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854. Small Craft Advisory for PKZ858. && $$