Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
Issued by NWS Fairbanks, AK
948 FXAK69 PAFG 272139 AFDAFG Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fairbanks AK 139 PM AKDT Mon May 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level energy continues to move across the southeast Interior today bringing another round of wetting rains to that area. This afternoon, thunderstorm potential is low, but a stray thunderstorm or two remains possible east of a line from Arctic Village and between Eagle and Northway to Fort Yukon. On Tuesday, isolated thunderstorms possible east of a line from Circle to Dot Lake. Temperatures continue their upward climb. && .DISCUSSION... Synoptic Analysis and Forecast... Aloft, at 500 mb, a 525 dam (decameter) low centered between Point Hope and Diomede tracks west to the northern Chukotsk Peninsula through Tuesday. A 537 dam low in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska slowly lifts northeast toward southeastern Alaska through Tuesday moving onshore Wednesday morning, with weak shortwave energy rotating across the southeast Interior. A 538 dam low near Amchitka tracks eastward along the Aleutians to be near Cold Bay by Wednesday. A 545 dam low over the northern Yukon this afternoon will move northwest to be centered near Fort Yukon Tuesday morning weakening to an open wave as it crosses the central Brooks Range and pushing off the western Arctic Coast Tuesday afternoon. Behind the shortwave, ridging builds in over the northeastern portion of the state. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure 350 NM north of the Arctic Coast lifts to the northeast through tonight. A 1023 mb high moves to the 175 NM north of Banks Island by Wednesday morning weakening to 1021 mb by Thursday morning as it moves southeast across Victoria Island. A 1009 mb low 75 NM northwest of Shishmaref continues northwest to the northern Chukotsk Peninsula by Tuesday afternoon. A 1026 mb high develops 175 NM northwest of Point Lay Wednesday afternoon. A 1002 mb low 150 NM north of Atka this afternoon deepens to 999 mb as it moves to 100 NM southwest of the Pribilofs Tuesday morning and 100 NM south of the Pribilofs Wednesday afternoon. A thermal trough stretches from Eagle to Fairbanks to McGrath today, persisting into Wednesday. Models... The 28/12Z models initialized well against the 12Z RAOBS and are in good agreement with the overall synoptic pattern through mid- week. There continues to be differences and timing of the upper level energy moving across the southeastern Interior, resulting in some difficulties pinning down pops and QPF there. Opted to largely retain the inherited pops and QPF for that region, as they are a good representation of a model blend, with only minor edits. Continued the trend of leaning towards the NAM and hi-res models for winds. North Slope and Brooks Range... Snow showers over the northwest Arctic Coast and western Brooks Range taper off tonight as the upper level low tracks westward. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible over the eastern Brooks Range through mid-week. Isolated thunderstorm not out of the question over the eastern Brooks Range Wednesday afternoon and evening. Drier conditions expected elsewhere Tuesday and Wednesday. East to northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph persist across the coast through tonight, diminishing Tuesday as a weak trough pushes offshore. Temperatures trend upwards. West Coast and Western Interior... Fairly quiet conditions anticipated through at least mid-week. Temperatures begin to warm. By Wednesday, highs will top out in the 60s across the Western Interior and into the mid 40s to mid 50s along the southern coast, St Lawrence Island and the western Bering Strait Coast will see highs in the 30s. Drier conditions anticipated through mid-week, with isolated thunderstorms possible Wednesday from Kaltag to Nikolai. Central and Eastern Interior... Upper level energy moving across the Interior will bring periods of heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Upper Tanana Valley, eastern Alaska Range, and Fortymile Country. This afternoon, thunderstorm potential is low, but a stray thunderstorm or two are possible east of a line from Arctic Village and between Eagle and Northway to Fort Yukon. On Tuesday, isolated thunderstorms possible east of a line from Circle to Dot Lake. On Wednesday, isolated thunderstorms possible over the Interior largely over the higher elevation highlands. Elsewhere in conditions will be drier, with only isolated showers anticipated. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Wednesday night into Thursday. Warming trend ensues this week as highs climb back into the mid 60s by Tuesday.. Extended Forecast Days 4-7...Deterministic and ensemble means remain in good agreement and continue to indicate ridging building across northern and central mainland Alaska during the extended forecast period through the weekend. This will lead to a warming trend with potentially above normal temperatures. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms not out of the question at times along the thermal trough. By early next week, there is the potential for Arctic energy to begin to move in from the northwest. Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warmer temperatures expected this week. Upper level energy moving across the southeast Interior today will bring another round of wetting rains to that area, elsewhere in the Central and Eastern Interior conditions will be drier. This afternoon, thunderstorm potential is very low, but a stray thunderstorm or two are possible east of a line from Arctic Village and between Eagle and Northway to Fort Yukon. On Tuesday, isolated thunderstorms possible east of a line from Circle to Dot Lake. Out west, drier conditions will prevail. Thunderstorm potential increases Wednesday and Thursday along the thermal trough. Weak southerly gap flow develops in the Alaska Range passes Wednesday night into Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... At Fort Yukon at 12 pm today, a river observer reported that water levels had receded approximately one foot since Saturday with only a few inches of water remaining over the roadway near Liquor Store Lake. Sloughs near the airport remain just above bankful. The water level in Fort Yukon will crest the mid-week. Minor flooding will continue through at least the middle of the week, with water receding very slowly by late in the week. Satellites and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt could lead to further river rises in Fort Yukon. Rainfall continues across the southeast Interior through the next couple of days with another half inch of rain over the Upper Tanana Basin, Eastern Alaska Range and Fortymile. There are no significant hydro concerns for now as rivers will rise but remain fairly low. && .AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AK...None. PK...None. && $$