827
FXAK69 PAFG 292024
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1224 PM AKDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances increase Wednesday for the Interior as an
easterly wave tracks across most of the Interior and provides
decent instability. Showers and thunderstorms move further north
on Thursday and Friday as the thermal trough pushes northward.
Warming trend continues over the Interior for the weekend with
highs in the 70s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
An Easterly wave will be tracking over the Interior this
afternooon and evening. This easterly wave will be the focus for
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Southeasterly flow will
continue over the Interior on Thursday becoming southerly flow on
Friday. An upper level low will develop over the Gulf of Alaska
on Thursday and persist into the weekend. High pressure will give
way to a trough over the Arctic over the weekend. Models
begin to diverge early next week on a placement of an upper low
over the west coast. Weak easterly flow will continue over the
Interior.


Central and Eastern Interior...
An easterly wave will be the focus for numerous showers and an
increased chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well,
mainly over the White Mtns/Fortymile Uplands/Upper Chena Basin.
High temps on Wed will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for most of
the Central and northern Interior. The showers will merge and
continue to track across the Central Interior and into the western
Interior by Thursday morning. Scattered showers and Isolated
thunderstorms will move further north on Thursday and Friday as
the thermal trough moves northward. The weekend looks warm
with highs in the 70s for much of the Interior and more stable
over the weekend.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Drying and warming Wednesday with only some isolated showers over
the Lower Yukon this afternoon and again Wednesday. Wednesday
afternoon and evening could see isolated thunderstorms from Galena
east. Thursday starts out dry with increasing afternoon showers
and isolated thunderstorms over the western Interior, then showers
and isolated thunderstorms expanding to the Seward Peninsula and
north of Galena Thursday aftn/evening.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Stratus and fog will remain for the next several days as high
pressure builds and then the flow becomes northeasterly again
Wednesday, with the possibility of stratus and fog pushing all the
way to the slopes of the Brooks Range.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The extended is basically a repeat of what has been going on the
last several days as easterly flow aloft dominates as another
large low moves into the Gulf of AK. This means seasonal weather
with bouts of showers and occasional thunderstorms over the
Interior, with general northerly winds along the West Coast.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An easterly wave will be the focus for numerous showers and an
increased chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms as well,
mainly over the White Mtns/Fortymile Uplands/Upper Chena Basin.
There is a chance of thunderstorms over the Middle Tanana Valley
as well this afternoon and evening. High temps on Wed will be in
the upper 60s to low 70s for most of the Central and northern
Interior. This will be in conjunction with a weak easterly wave
moving through, and low level steering flow from the northeast.
Thunderstorms look active again Thursday and Friday, especially
over the Northern Interior. It will be more stable and cooler over
the S Interior Thu before warming back up Friday and into
the weekend. The weekend looks warm with highs in the 70s for much
of the Interior and more stable over the weekend.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The water level in Fort Yukon will crest the mid-week. Minor
flooding will continue through at least the middle of the week,
with water receding very slowly by late in the week. Satellites
and ground observations continue to indicate abundant snow in the
Porcupine Mountains. As temperatures warm this week, snowmelt
could lead to continued high water along the Porcupine and the
interrelated sloughs.

Rainfall has resulted in some minor stream flooding in the E
Alaska Range where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall has fallen along with
higher elevation snow. A flood advisory is out for the E Alaska
Range from just east of the Richardson Highway to north and east
of Mentasta Pass. With less rainfall projected in the next 72
hours, water levels should come down. There are no significant
hydro concerns for now for the larger stem rivers as they remain
low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ817.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ854.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857-858.
&&

$$