087
FXAK69 PAFG 260818
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
1218 AM AKDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
An arctic low over the N Slope and Arctic Coast is delaying the
onset of spring, with that feature rotating southwest to the
Chukchi coast, Norton Sound, and Seward Peninsula the next couple
days, with snow showers and cooler weather. Over the Interior,
easterly flow aloft will keep heavy shower chances over the SE
Interior and E Alaska Range to the Fortymile, with a more
significant low moving into that region Monday. Elsewhere,
slightly cooler and below seasonal temps slowly moderate, with
otherwise fairly benign weather. Break-up continues along the
Yukon Delta with snowmelt flooding being reported along and near
the Porcupine River around Fort Yukon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper Levels and Analysis...
There is an anomalous 529 dam arctic low over the Brooks Range and
N Slope, with the center around Umiat. Snow showers are occurring
over Brooks Range passes and onto the Arctic Coast with this
feature. There is a sprawling 531 dam upper low over the Gulf of
Alaska. There is a subtle easterly wave moving from the Yukon into
the SE Interior, supporting areas of rain showers. Rather strong
north winds gusting to gale force continue over the Bering Strait
to Chukchi coast and across the Seward Peninsula.

Model Discussion...
The models are in very good agreement with the pattern for the
next several days. There is some slight discrepancy with an
easterly wave moving into the E Interior Monday, with the NAM
model a notable outlier with strength and placement, thus we
tossed the NAM in favor of global models. Prior to that, the NAM
hi-res was favored for winds with a blend to all models for
precipitation, which will favor higher chances over the SE Interior
and E Alaska Range Monday and Monday night.

Central and Eastern Interior...
Rain showers continue this morning over the E Alaksa Range to the
SE Interior around Tok and Northway, then taper off. There will be
more afternoon showers and isolated thunder over the ALCAN border
mainly across the Fortymile Uplands, Upper Chena Basin, and
possibly into the E Alaska Range. Later tonight, another easterly
wave moves in with more heavy rain showers and that will continue
Monday and Monday night with another 0.50 to 1.25 inches of
rainfall, once again favoring the Upper Tanana Basin, Fortymile,
and E Alaska Range. Elsewhere, it will be rather quiet for the
Memorial Weekend and Memorial Day holiday with slightly cooler
than seasonal norm temps, moderating by Tuesday as south flow
aloft develops.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Temps fall the next couple days as a migratory arctic low moves
across the NW Arctic, bringing with it chances for snow showers
mainly over the Seward Peninsula, Bering Strait, and Chukchi
coast, where accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are possible Sunday
and Monday. Strong north winds over the West Coast wane Monday as
the arctic low departs. Temps gradually warm on Tue.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Snow showers continue over the N Slope and Arctic coast, and
across the Brooks Range, through tonight, tapering off from the E
Arctic to the W Arctic. NE winds taper off Monday with weak high
pressure thereafter, and quiet weather conditions.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Weak Interior ridging is in place Wednesday with an upper low in
Bristol Bay, which should mean slowly warming temps over the
Interior Mainland and showery conditions over SW AK and the West
as well as over the E Interior. Another low dives into the Gulf of
AK Thursday and looks to remain in place for several days, with a
continuation of shower chances over the Interior, and no
significant anomalies of note during this period. It looks
fairly...average.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Iso wet thunderstorms today are possible right along the ALCAN
mainly north of Northway and south of Chicken. Otherwise, wetting
rains will be focused over the SE Interior and E Alaska Range to
the Fortymile the next few days, with rainfall amounts ranging
from 0.5 to 1.5 inches. Elsewhere, it looks pretty dry and stable
for the next few days with no notable weather, and conditions
remaining cooler than seasonal norms for the Memorial Holiday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A flood warning remains in effect for Fort Yukon until next
Wednesday. Water has poured into low lying areas east of Fort
Yukon and was reported to be rising rapidly today with water 6
inches to 1 ft below impacting low areas of the runway. It is
expected that flooding will be similar to 2023, with water flowing
into low section of Fort Yukon today, cresting today or Monday,
and then falling very slowly next week.

A flood watch remains for the Yukon Delta near Nunam Iqua and
Kotlik. An ice jam remains in place with high water. Water is over
the bank on the far side and about a foot below bank on the
village side. No flooding has been reported but if the ice shifts
it could push water into town.

More rainfall for the SE Interior the next few days, with 0.5 to
1.5 inches of rainfall over the Upper Tanana Basin, E Alaska
Range, and Fortymile. There are no significant hydro concerns for
now as rivers will rise but remain fairly low.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Flood Watch for AKZ825.
     Flood Warning for AKZ833.
PK...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ801.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ804-817-851.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ805.
     Gale Warning for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ807.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810-856.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ811-812-858.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ813.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ816-850-853.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ857.
&&

$$

Ahsenmacher