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FXAK67 PAJK 251336
AFDAJK

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
536 AM AKDT Sat May 25 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Saturday night/ Somewhat quiet morning
across the panhandle as more rain begins to enter the area from a
low in the central gulf. Light rain has been on and off most of
the night across the north, but more wide spread rain can be seen
moving in on radar as a new front moves in from the W. Just about
all of the panhandle is expected to see some rain today, but the
north will see less especially tonight as overall flow gradually
becomes more easterly over the north. Total rainfall expected
through tonight will range from around 2 tenths over the north to
up to 8 tenths across the south. Some isolated areas in the
southern panhandle could see more due to terrain enhancement
though.

Winds with this system are not all that impressive. Highest winds
currently are in the northern gulf near Cape Suckling where 25 kt
easterlies are blowing. Those winds are expected to persist
through the day with some of that spreading east along the coast
to near Cross Sound by afternoon. As for the inner channels,
Clarence Strait is expected to reach 25 kt small craft conditions
later this afternoon as the southern part of the front moves into
that area. Otherwise, the mostly lighter winds this morning are
expected to increase to around 15 to 20 kt for most inner channel
areas expect the far north.


.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Wednesday/...Similar lines of thinking compared to
yesterday`s forecast. Only change is the reduced chance that any
wave moving up the coast will cause 25-30 knot winds. Otherwise,
still looking at a rainy and cool holiday weekend.

This Memorial Day Weekend is marked by a stacked low in the Alaskan
Gulf slowly filling and drifting south. From this system, constant
onshore flow from the south will move into the panhandle, generating
rain, cooler temperatures, and breezy marine conditions. The
southern panhandle looks to be hit the hardest relatively, with
steady light rain for the entire weekend. The northern half of the
panhandle has the highest likelihood of seeing periods of no rain,
with increased chances the further north one is. However, these
areas will not be able to escape the clouds as the entire AOR looks
to be overcast with not a hint of sun, except for the extreme
northern panhandle. Southerly winds over marine look to max out at
20 knot sustained winds, mainly focused on the southern panhandle
and outer coast throughout the weekend.

One note of uncertainty in the forecast is the potential for quick
moving systems tracking from the south along the gulf coast.
Ensemble and deterministic models are having trouble determining
when and how strong these mesoscale features will be. If they do
develop, the predominantly southerly flow in the inner channels will
likely take an increasingly easterly component as they traverse
northward. Areas such as Frederick Sound, Sumner Strait, Icy Strait,
Cross Sound, and Peril Strait to name a few could see increased wind
speeds, possibly up to 20 knots.

Looking further into next week, the unsettled weather trend looks to
continue. Ensemble models, particularly the EPS & GEFS, seem to be
split on the idea of another possibly impactful front moving into
the panhandle late in the week. On the one hand, there is some upper
level support to believe this line of thinking; however, this front
also faces what looks like a broad surface ridge on the onset. While
the panhandle may receive rain, confidence is low regarding whether
a front will impact the panhandle or stay offshore.

&&

.AVIATION...ASOS,AWOS, and FAA camera sites across the region are
reporting a mix of VFR to MVFR this morning and a deck near
FL030. Expect conditions to deteriorate to mostly MVFR through
the day as widespread rain moves in, with CIGS FL015 to FL025.
The exception may be in the far north if heavier rain fails to
penetrate into Lynn Canal bringing more VFR. We will see low level
chop through the TAF period from elevated southerly winds aloft,
especially south of Admiralty, but not enough LLWS to put into
TAFs.


&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ036-644-652-664-671-672.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EAL
LONG TERM....NC
AVIATION...AP

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