523
FXUS61 KAKQ 240812
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
412 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening. A surface trough will affect the region Saturday into
Saturday evening. A warm front followed by a cold front will
affect the area late Sunday through Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

Early this morning, latest radar showed isolated to sctd
showers/tstms were moving ewrd across extrm SE VA/NE NC.
Otherwise, the sky was partly cloudy to cloudy across the region
with temps ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. This pcpn was
associated with shortwave energy in advance of a weak cold
front.

That weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening, producing more isolated to sctd showers or tstms from
later this morning into this evening. More clouds during today
will result in not as warm temps across the area. Highs today
will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Pcpn will end by late
this evening, with a mostly clear to mostly cloudy sky expected
tonight into early Sat morning. Lows tonight in the lower to mid
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 AM EDT Friday...

A sfc trough with some shortwave energy will push into the
region for Sat aftn/evening, resulting in 20-50% PoPs. Highs on
Sat will be in the lower to mid 80s. Pcpn will taper off or end
later Sat evening. Lows Sat night in the lower to mid 60s. A
warm front will affect the area later Sun through Sun night.
Partly to mostly sunny, warm and humid on Sun with highs in the
mid to upper 80s most locations (upper 70s to lower 80s near/at
the coast). Slight to small chance for aftn/evening showers or
storms. Then, PoPs will increase a bit more from the WNW late
Sun night into early Mon morning, as a cold front starts to push
ewrd toward the mtns. Lows Sun night mainly in the lower to mid
60s once again.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Friday...

00z/24 EPS/GEFS depict an anomalous trough digging from the
Great Lakes into the NE Mon into Thu with a cold front pushing
through the Mid Atlc Mon night. Confidence on timing remains on
the low-side, but given the strength of the trough more coverage
of showers/tstms are possible in the Memorial Day/Mon night
timeframe. Highs Memorial Day will range through the 80s.
Lingering frontal boundary or troughiness will result in slight
or small chance for showers or a tstm Tue and Wed, even though
slightly drier air will be filtering into the region. Much drier
air then expected for Wed night through Thu, as high pressure
starts to build in from the NW. Highs will be in the lower to
mid 80s Tue, in the mid 70s to lower 80s Wed, and in the lower
to mid 70s Thu.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...

Isolated to sctd showers/tstms were affecting scntrl/SE VA and
NE NC very early this morning well in advance of a weak cold
front. The TAF sites PHF/ORF/ECG will likely receive a shower or
tstm through 09/10z this morning. Brief MVFR CIGS or VSBY
restrictions will be possible with any pcpn. Otherwise, mainly
VFR conditions will prevail.

A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening, producing sctd showers or tstms at any TAF site. Brief
sub-VFR CIG or VSBY restrictions will be possible in any heavier
showers or storms. A surface trough may produce isolated to sctd
mainly aftn/early evening showers or storms during Sat. There
is the potential for more widespread coverage of showers/tstms
Mon into Mon evening, as a cold front pushes into and across the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through Sunday.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially in the afternoons
  and evening) later today and again on Monday afternoon.

A weak cold front washes out later this morning as it drops into
the area. More widespread showers and storms are crossing over
northern NC this morning in association with some shortwave
energy crossing to our south. Showers and storms will likely
push across the lower Bay and out coastal waters south of Cape
Charles before sunrise before weakening. High-Res CAMs are
showing chances for additional showers and storms this
afternoon. Marine interests should be monitoring the potential
for these storms after 2pm this afternoon, with potential W-NW
t-storm outflow crossing the waters later this afternoon and
evening.

Otherwise, high pressure just offshore will push farther
offshore into the upcoming weekend. This should result in a
stretch of rather quiet/benign marine weather conditions late
today through the upcoming weekend. Expect winds of 5-15kt
outside of any storms through Sunday. Seas ~2 ft over the
ocean/waves 1-2 ft in the bay. Afternoons will likely be
dominated by sea breeze circulations each day, allowing winds to
become onshore during those times, with south to southeast
winds returning in the later afternoon and evening/late night
hours.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued with winds of 10 to 15 kt over the Bay, 15 to 20 kt
over the open ocean on Monday, still below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Winds veer around to the NW behind the front on
Tuesday into midweek. Some additional showers and storms will be
possible on Memorial Day Monday ahead of the approaching cold
front. E-SE swell behind that system that could bring some 5
foot seas by Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as
winds turn back offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches today and tomorrow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...JDM/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/MRD