588
FXUS61 KAKQ 210736
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
336 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid-Atlantic region today. A
summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the week as high
pressure settles off the Southeast coast. A cold front
approaches from the northwest Thursday with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms to end the week and into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Areas of fog this morning.

High pressure extends from the Mid-Atlantic to the coast of New
England early this morning. Weak low pressure lingers well
offshore of the Southeast coast. This combined with the high to
the N is resulting in light onshore flow, which has allowed
areas of stratus and fog to push onshore to about the I-95
corridor. Farther W over the Piedmont, fog is more patchy. Vsby
is lowest over the Coastal Plain and over the Eastern Shore, and
these areas will need to be monitored for a dense fog advisory
over the next 1-2 hours. Temperatures early this morning
primarily range through the 50s.

High pressure will remain in vicinity of the coast today.
Morning fog and stratus will gradually lift and dissipate
lingering longest toward the coast. Becoming sunny with high
temperatures ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s along the
coast with light onshore flow, to the lower 80s well inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

- An approaching cold front brings chances showers and
  thunderstorms Thursday, a few of which could be strong to
  severe.

High pressure nudges offshore tonight. Some patchy fog/stratus
is possible, especially toward the coast, with less coverage
than early this morning. Otherwise, mostly clear tonight with
lows in the mid 50s to around 60F. High pressure settles off the
Southeast coast Wednesday into Thursday. More summerlike
conditions arrive as 850mb temperatures rise to 16-17C, which
will support highs in the upper 80s to around 90F away from the
coast both days. A lighter wind, still SSE will keep highs in
the mid 70s to around 80F along the coast Wednesday, with highs
into the upper 70s to mid 80s Thursday along the coast as the
wind becomes more southwesterly. Meanwhile, dewpoints are
expected to be in the lower to mid 60s Wednesday, and then mid
to upper 60s by Thursday. Mild, mostly clear, and modestly humid
Wednesday night with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Dry
Wednesday through midday Thursday. A shortwave trough and cold
front will approach from the NW by Thursday afternoon. This will
bring a trigger for showers/tstms into a moderately unstable
airmass with strong surface heating. This combined with 500mb
flow of 30-40kt could result in a few stronger to severe tstms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

The cold front stalls in vicinity of the Mid-Atlantic region
Thursday night into the weekend and early next week as it become
aligned parallel to WSW flow aloft. There is a potential for a
series of shortwave troughs to track through the mid/upper level
flow bringing daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening
showers/tstms. Friday still should be rather hot with highs in
the mid to upper 80s, with high temperatures trending down to
the lower 80s Saturday and lower to mid 80s Sunday and Monday.
Low temperatures will primarily be in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 155 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure is centered from the Mid-Atlantic to the New
England coast as of 06z, with low pressure well off the
Southeast coast. This is resulting in light onshore flow, which
has resulted in areas of IFR/LIFR stratus pushing onshore.
IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to prevail through early
morning with vsby dropping to 1/2-2sm, with 1/4sm possible at
SBY. High pressure remains in vicinity of the coast Tuesday.
Cigs/vsby are expected to slowly improve during the morning
lingering longest along the coast. High pressure becomes
centered immediately offshore tonight with some patchy
stratus/fog possible, especially toward the coast.

Dry Wednesday through most of Thursday with prevailing VFR
conditions. A cold front approaches from the NW later Thursday
aftn bringing a chc of showers/tstms. This front lingers over
the area Friday into Saturday with a chc of mainly aftn/evening
showers/tstms continuing.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-Moderate rip current risk expected for the southern beaches on
Tuesday.

- Generally quiet marine conditions continuing for much of the week.

High pressure continues to build into the local area this afternoon,
which is pushing an area of low pressure further southeast away from
our waters. Wind is generally E/NE at 8-12kt with a few gusts to
15kts. Afternoon seas are 3-4ft across the north with 4-5ft along
the southern coastal waters. Waves in the Bay remain around 1-2ft.
With relatively benign conditions expected on the marine side for
most of the week, expect seas and waves to persist at the
aforementioned levels, with perhaps the southern seas coming down to
3-4ft as well. The high pressure will slide offshore later this week
ahead of an incoming frontal system turning the winds more SSW, but
they should remain below SCA thresholds. The cold front will settle
into the region Thursday and into the weekend bringing a chance
of scattered showers and storms each day.

A high risk of rip currents continues for the rest of the day for
the southern beaches, with a moderate risk for the northern
beaches. Expecting the rip forecast for tomorrow to "come down"
to moderate for the southern beaches and low for the northern
beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore waves gradually
subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 335 AM EDT Tuesday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River,
with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river
will likely stay in flood this morning before falling below
flood stage later today. Rainfall from the weekend may cause
localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should
stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 245 PM EDT Monday...

Another round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding is expected to
occur during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal
anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for the
middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock River
and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. Thus, a Coastal Flood
Statement has been issued for these locations, as well as the upper
James area, for tonight`s high tide cycle. A similar pattern will
continue through midweek as the higher astronomical high tides will
remain elevated over the next several days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ
SHORT TERM...AJZ
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJZ/JKP
HYDROLOGY...AKQ
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ