749
FXUS61 KAKQ 240702
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
302 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening. A surface trough will affect the region Saturday into
Saturday evening. A warm front followed by a cold front will
affect the area late Sunday into Monday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 905 PM EDT Thursday...

A weakening cold front will approach the area from the NW this
tonight. Showers and thunderstorms have struggled to initiate or
move into the region this evening. Latest radar shows some
showers in NE NC, but otherwise dry. A few CAMs hint at some
redevelopment in the SE later tonight into early tomorrow
morning, but confidence is rather low at this point. Outside of
isold/wdly scattered storms through the evening hours, expect
at partly to mostly cloudy sky overnight with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

The aforementioned weak front will stall out across the local
area on Friday. 12z NAM and HRRR are showing the potential for
scattered showers/storms during the morning before clearing and
then additional isold showers/storms developing in the
afternoon. Remainder of the guidance favors the
afternoon/evening for any showers/storms. Forecast still favors
highest PoPs on Friday after 18z (15-20% NE to 30-40% S).
Remaining summer-like and rather warm Friday with highs in the
mid to upper 80s inland, and upper 70s to lower 80s at the coast
due to a developing sea-breeze in weak flow. Mild Friday night
with lows in the 60s. 23/12z guidance has some broad
consistency in showing shortwave energy arriving Saturday in
westerly mid/upper level flow, with the boundary lifting back to
the N, but confidence in the details remains low. Given this,
PoPs for mainly afternoon/evening showers/tstms are 30-50%
across the entire area. Highs Saturday will once again be in the
mid 80s, with upper 70s to lower 80s toward the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

- Remaining warm and humid Sunday into Memorial Day with the
  potential for showers and thunderstorms Memorial Day.

Continued warm and humid Saturday night with any showers/tstms
diminishing in coverage as shortwave ridging arrives in the
westerly flow aloft. Lows will mainly be in the 60s. Highs
Sunday will once again be in the mid 80s inland with upper 70s
to lower 80s toward the coast. Less coverage of showers/tstms
are expected Sunday afternoon/evening as broad ridging prevails,
with PoPs less than 10% NE to ~30% SW. 23/12z EPS/GEFS depict
an anomalous trough digging from the Great Lakes to the
Northeast Monday through Wednesday with a cold front pushing
through the Mid-Atlantic. Confidence on timing remains on the
low-side, but given the strength of the trough more coverage of
showers/tstms are possible in the Memorial Day/Monday night
timeframe. Highs Memorial Day will once again be rather warm in
the mid 80s to around 90F (slightly lower at the coast), with
highs trending down into the upper 70s to lower 80s toward the
middle of next week with drier air also arriving into the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 225 AM EDT Friday...

Isolated to sctd showers/tstms were affecting scntrl/SE VA and
NE NC very early this morning well in advance of a weak cold
front. The TAF sites PHF/ORF/ECG will likely receive a shower or
tstm through 09/10z this morning. Brief MVFR CIGS or VSBY
restrictions will be possible with any pcpn. Otherwise, mainly
VFR conditions will prevail.

A weak cold front will drop across the area today into this
evening, producing sctd showers or tstms at any TAF site. Brief
sub-VFR CIG or VSBY restrictions will be possible in any heavier
showers or storms. A surface trough may produce isolated to sctd
mainly aftn/early evening showers or storms during Sat. There
is the potential for more widespread coverage of showers/tstms
Mon into Mon evening, as a cold front pushes into and across the
region.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through Sunday.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially in the afternoons
  and evening) later today and again on Monday afternoon.

A weak cold front washes out later this morning as it drops into
the area. More widespread showers and storms are crossing over
northern NC this morning in association with some shortwave
energy crossing to our south. Showers and storms will likely
push across the lower Bay and out coastal waters south of Cape
Charles before sunrise before weakening. High-Res CAMs are
showing chances for additional showers and storms this
afternoon. Marine interests should be monitoring the potential
for these storms after 2pm this afternoon, with potential W-NW
t-storm outflow crossing the waters later this afternoon and
evening.

Otherwise, high pressure just offshore will push farther
offshore into the upcoming weekend. This should result in a
stretch of rather quiet/benign marine weather conditions late
today through the upcoming weekend. Expect winds of 5-15kt
outside of any storms through Sunday. Seas ~2 ft over the
ocean/waves 1-2 ft in the bay. Afternoons will likely be
dominated by sea breeze circulations each day, allowing winds to
become onshore during those times, with south to southeast
winds returning in the later afternoon and evening/late night
hours.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued with winds of 10 to 15 kt over the Bay, 15 to 20 kt
over the open ocean on Monday, still below Small Craft Advisory
criteria. Winds veer around to the NW behind the front on
Tuesday into midweek. Some additional showers and storms will be
possible on Memorial Day Monday ahead of the approaching cold
front. E-SE swell behind that system that could bring some 5
foot seas by Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as
winds turn back offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches today and tomorrow.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AM/JDM
SHORT TERM...AJZ/JDM
LONG TERM...AJZ/JDM
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...MAM/MRD