540
FXUS61 KAKQ 261846
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
246 PM EDT Sun May 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front approaches the area into Monday. Additional rounds
of showers and storms are possible this afternoon and especially
Monday, with potential severe weather as well for Monday. An
upper trough brings cooler and comfortable weather to end the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Scattered storms along sea breezes this afternoon.

- Overnight storm complex may move into the area late tonight.

Scattered storms have developed along sea breeze boundaries across
eastern and southeast VA this afternoon. With mesoanalysis showing
1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, strong/intense updrafts are possible.
Additionally, the steep low-level lapse rates are favorable for
water-loaded downdrafts capable of mainly damaging winds.
Cannot rule out small to isolated large hail in the strongest
cores. Still, expect the coverage to be relatively sparse and
confined to these sea breezes or areas of outflow. With storms
remaining nearly stationary, there are also flooding concerns,
especially if storms drop a quick inch or two in urban or flood-
prone locations. Otherwise, most of the Piedmont should stay dry
through late this aftn and evening. High temps in the mid-upper
80s.

Into tonight, an MCS should move toward the area from the W. There
is some uncertainty about how intense it will be after crossing the
Appalachians. The HRRR keeps it relatively intact W of I-95 corridor
while the 3km NAM weakens it considerably. If most of central VA
remains storm-free through this evening, think there should be a
decent reservoir of residual instability to support some
additional strong-severe storms across the wrn portions of the
FA. Damaging winds would be the main threat. SPC has a marginal
risk areawide. Lingering showers extend closer to the coast
around sunrise. Overnight lows in the in the mid-upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

- There is a threat of severe weather for Memorial Day (Monday).
Damaging winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible.

- Quieter Tuesday, with scattered showers and isolated storms across
the north Wednesday.

****Severe weather expected Monday with all modes of severe
possible. Those with outdoor Memorial Day plans should closely
monitor the weather for warnings as multiple rounds of strong to
severe storms could occur.****

The setup for Monday is complicated and heavily dependent on the
behavior of early-day convection. The broad weather pattern will be
characterized by an approaching mid-level shortwave and increasing
flow aloft. Several subtle impulses will slide eastward through the
area during the day, with one expected to cross the area in the mid
to late morning. This is before the brunt of daytime heating occurs
in the afternoon. Several experimental CAMs show a line of
convection crossing the area in the late morning, around 15z or so.
This could pose a threat of isolated wind damage, heavy rain, and
lightning. The impact of this activity on afternoon redevelopment is
the main question. While there could be a good degree of
stabilization from this early convection, most guidance insists of
robust airmass recovery with MLCAPE building to 1500+ J/kg in in the
afternoon. A few models even show values of 2000-3000 J/kg, which
would support extremely strong updrafts. Effective shear values will
be very supportive for severe weather with 35-50 kts across most of
the area. Therefore, afternoon redevelopment seems like a good bet
and all modes of severe will be possible. The large hail threat is
supported by mid-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km, highest across the S
and SE. With southerly surface winds and SW winds aloft, there is
also some directional shear supportive of a non-zero tornado threat.
Forecast soundings show 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH and favorably
curved hodographs, again highest across the S/SE. Changes to the day
2 SPC include an expansion of the slight risk to the entire area and
the introduction of a 5% tornado threat for most of our CWA. PoP-
wise, did trend PoPs down a bit mainly due to questions regarding
coverage. However, the severe potential remains unchanged. Highs
will be very warm to hot and in the upper 80s-low 90s (low 80s
immediate coast). Outside of storms, skies stay mostly or partly
sunny. Storms may linger across the SE into the overnight Monday.

Much quieter Tuesday with a lingering shower or storm across the far
SE. Highs in the low-mid 80s under a mostly sunny sky. Upper
troughing situates over the eastern CONUS for the middle of the
week. On Wednesday, a potent shortwave will dive SE and move through
nrn portions of the area. This is expected to bring an increase in
cloud cover and isolated to scattered showers, mainly N and E of the
I-64 corridor and especially on the MD Eastern Shore. Cooler temps
aloft will allow for the development of some modest CAPE in the
afternoon, so cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder as well.
Highs will be in the upper 70s/around 80F N/NW to the low-mid 80s
S/SE. Cooler Wed night w/ lows in the 50s for most of the area and
lower 60s for the far SE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

- Cooler and more comfortable to end the next week.

Another shortwave within the larger longwave trough pivots toward
the area later Thursday into Friday. However, drier air will work
against any precip chances. Still could see increases in cloud cover
in the aftn during peak heating, however. With the drier air and
lower heights aloft, temps will trend back into the 70s with dew
points in the 40s and 50s. Thus, it will feel much more comfortable.
High pressure builds down from the Great Lakes to end the week and
start the weekend favoring a continuation of the dry and comfortable
wx. High temps should begin to inch up some as ridging begins to
build across the eastern CONUS. Overnight lows through the extended
will be in the 50s to around 60F at the immediate coast. A few upper
40s are possible Thu and Fri night across the far NW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 PM EDT Sunday...

VFR at all terminals this aftn and this should prevail (outside
of showers/storms) through most of the period. Just seeing some
SCT-BKN CU as of 18z and this should continue through the
daytime heating period. Isolated showers and storms are
possible at all terminals, which could lead to very localized
VSBY flight restrictions. Not as much fog/stratus development
expected tonight and thinking is it should stay confined to the
immediate coast and away from the terminals. ORF/ECG would have
the highest chance but confidence is too low to include in the
TAFs right now. Otherwise, a line of showers or storms may
approach the area from the W late this evening into tonight.
Most guidance agrees that is should be weakening, but cannot
rule out gusty winds, heavy rain, and lightning (best chance at
RIC in the 3-6z timeframe). Additional showers and storms may
linger into the morning hrs. Mainly light southerly or variable
winds through the period.

Outlook: A higher coverage of showers and storms (some of which
could be severe) is expected Mon aftn through Mon evening.
Outside of storms, expect mainly VFR conditions. VFR expected
Tue and Wed.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key messages:

- Chances for showers and storms through this evening and again
tomorrow.

- Small Craft Advisory conditions possible tomorrow afternoon into
tomorrow night across the Chesapeake Bay and coastal waters due to
increasing winds and building seas.

Bermuda high pressure remains in place offshore this afternoon, with
a weak lee trough just inland. Winds are generally out of the E-SE
around 10-15 kt, with the highest winds generally concentrated in
the lower and middle bay. Visibilities continue to improve, but
there is some lingering fog near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay and
just off the Virginia Beach coast.

Similar conditions tonight and early Monday. A cold front approaches
the area on Monday, associated with a deepening low pressure center
over the Great Lakes. Tightening pressure gradient will allow S-SW
winds to increase out ahead of the front. Winds briefly approach SCA
criteria Monday afternoon and evening in the lower Bay and coastal
waters, with E-SE wind wave potentially pushing some 5 footers
across northern and central coastal zones Monday night. Some Marine
Warnings may also be needed as strong to severe storms could
potentially cross the region tomorrow night.

The front will slow down or stall over the waters Monday night
before getting pushed through Tuesday morning/afternoon. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. A second,
reinforcing shot of cooler and drier air could bring another period
of stronger northerly winds late Wednesday night into Thursday.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches today, with a moderate rip risk for
northern beaches on Monday with building seas and more of a shore
normal component to wave energy.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM EDT Monday for MDZ021.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW/TMG
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJB/MAM