846
FXUS61 KAKQ 201820
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
220 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure settles over the region today, favoring dry
weather. A summerlike pattern develops by the middle of the
week. A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday with
daily chances for showers and storms to end the week and into
the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 220 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Mild and dry this afternoon with clouds continuing to clear
  out through the evening

- Lows in the low-mid 50s tonight with fog formation possible
  across the entire forecast area

High pressure is settling in over the area this afternoon. Aloft, a
trough is pushing offshore and a strong ridge is building in behind
it. Clouds are finally scattering out over most of the area this
afternoon per latest satellite. Temps have warmed into the mid-70s
in the far western piedmont. Cloud cover is thicker through central
portions of the area, so temps are still in the low 70s. Onshore
flow is keeping temps near the coast in the upper 60s-low 70s. While
far western counties may still touch 80 later this afternoon, temps
in central portions of the area may slightly under-perform and
stick to the low 70s instead of the upper 70s. Overnight, temps
will cool into the low-mid 50s. Expecting cloud cover to build
back in from the east overnight, but should remain scattered
over the western half. Fog formation is also expected across the
entire area overnight. While the majority of the fog should be
patchy, there is the potential for areas of fog to become dense.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Dry Tuesday and Wednesday with a noticeable warming trend.

Relatively quiet conditions forecast for the first half of the week
as an UL ridge builds over the eastern CONUS and the sfc high over
Canada shifts south and offshore to our E/SE. Onshore flow will
continue through Tuesday, however, so coastal areas will remain
slightly cooler relative to inland locations to start. Tuesday will
have highs in the low-mid 80s inland and low-mid 70s at the coast.
Much warmer Wednesday with highs in the mid-upper 80s for most, with
upper 70s or lower 80s at the immediate coast. Lows will be in the
50s Tue night and 60s Wed night. Skies will average mostly
sunny/clear.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 255 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- A cold front crosses late in the week, bringing chances for
  showers and thunderstorms. A few storms could be strong to
  severe.

- Remaining warm, but unsettled, for Friday into the weekend.

The weather in the extended period looks to resemble a summerlike
pattern with diurnal chances for showers/storms. To start the
period, a potent trough will slide from the central Plains into the
Great Lakes region. At the surface, an associated cold front will
advance S/SE toward the region early Thursday. The guidance is in
decent agreement regarding the timing of the FROPA, with the latest
consensus favoring the later afternoon and early overnight period
Thursday. PoPs ramp up across the W/NW during the day and shift E/SE
into the evening. Generally, the GFS is a little slower than the
ECMWF. At least moderate surface-based instability is forecast
across the region in advance of the FROPA so thunderstorms look like
a decent bet. While still a few days away, the synoptic pattern
could favor some strong-severe storms given increasing mid-upper
level flow with the trough passing to to our N. Machine learning
methods are beginning to pick up on this potential so something to
keep an eye on. The area isn`t outlooked from SPC at this point.
Beyond this, the front looks to stall over NC and just S of the FA
as it becomes parallel to the mid-upper flow. Uncertainty grows for
Friday and the weekend as a shortwave slides through the OH River
Valley under a building ridge. At least some precip potential is
expected Friday, especially W of I-95. The degree of instability and
the placement of the sfc/upper features will dictate the
thunderstorm potential. At this time, will have the highest chances
for storms S and W of I-64. For those looking for a dry and
uneventful weekend weather-wise, next weekend doesn`t look to be
that. The remnant sfc boundary, lower sfc pressures, and moist,
southerly flow favors on and off showers and storms Saturday and
Sunday.

For temps, Thursday looks very warm or hot. Highs in the upper 80s
to around 90F inland and mid-upper 80s near the coast. With the
front weakening on its approach, Friday will only be slightly cooler
with highs in the low-mid 80s generally. The weekend temps won` be
as chilly as this past weekend, but still cooling off into the upper
70s or low 80s. Sunday may be a few degrees warmer. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure is settling into the area this afternoon. Skies
are gradually clearing out, but still seeing BKN-OVC at times at
RIC and ORF. Skies continue to clear out through this evening,
but clouds will linger immediately near the coast. Flight
restrictions likely return late tonight. There is enough
confidence in the formation of fog to include it in the 18z
TAFs. There is the potential for fog to become dense, but am not
certain yet how widespread dense fog will be. Also, low CIGs
will be possible along the coast. Winds are 5-10kt out of the NE
this afternoon, becoming variable/calm overnight. Winds will be
light and easterly tomorrow.

Outlook: Dry Tue and Wed w/ VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

-All Small craft advisories have been or will be discontinued by 4
AM.

- Generally quiet marine conditions starting tonight and continuing
for much of the week.

1024mb high pressure is centered over Atlantic Canada early
this morning and extends to the SW into the Mid-Atlantic region.
Meanwhile, low pressure linger off the Southeast coast in
vicinity of the Gulf Stream. The wind is NE and generally 5-10kt
over the rivers, 10-15kt over the Ches. Bay, Currituck Sound,
and ocean north of Cape Henry, and 15-20kt for the ocean south
of Cape Henry in closer proximity to the stronger pressure
gradient. Seas range from 3-4ft north to ~4ft S. Similar
conditions will persist through mid- aftn as high pressure
remain anchored to our NE and as low pressure lingers well off
the Southeast coast. The remaining SCA off the Currituck Outer
Banks will be discontinued at 4 AM as seas are primarily
expected to remain below 5ft.

The wind is expected to remain onshore but diminish later this
aftn into tonight as high pressure builds in from the north.
This area of high pressure builds across the Mid-Atlantic coast
Tuesday into Wednesday as weak low pressure lingers off the
Southeast coast. High pressure slides offshore later in the week
with the wind becoming SSW but remaining sub-SCA. Seas
gradually subside to 3-4ft by tonight/Tuesday, and then 2-3ft by
mid to late week. A cold front approaches from the NW Thursday
and settles into the region Friday into Saturday bringing a chc
of primarily aftn/evening tstms. Conditions will mainly be sub-
SCA with a potential for brief increases in wind and seas/waves
from tstms.

A high risk of rip currents is forecast today for the southern
beaches given a NE wind of 10-15kt and nearshore waves around 4ft. A
moderate risk of rip currents is forecast for the northern beaches
as the NE wind will be slightly lighter with 3-4ft nearshore waves.
By Tuesday, the rip forecast is moderate for the southern beaches
and low for the northern beaches as the wind relaxes and nearshore
waves gradually subside.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Water is gradually moving downstream on the Nottoway River,
with Sebrell in minor flood stage early this morning. The river
will likely stay in flood into Tuesday before falling below
flood stage later Tuesday. Rainfall from yesterday may cause
localized rises in other rivers, but all remaining sites should
stay below action stage.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Tidal flooding is not expected during the next high tide cycle
later this morning into early aftn given the lower astronomical
high tide combined with a decent ebb tide. However, another
round of nuisance to minor tidal flooding will likely occur
during the higher astronomical high tide tonight as tidal
anomalies remain 1.0-1.5ft above astronomical, particularly for
the middle Chesapeake Bay and tidal portions of the Rappahannock
River and southern shore of the tidal Potomac. A similar
pattern will continue through midweek as the higher astronomical
high tides will remain elevated over the next several days.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AM
SHORT TERM...AM/SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...AM
MARINE...AJZ
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...