794
FXUS61 KALY 242325
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather through much of Saturday.
A few showers and thunderstorms are possible late Saturday
afternoon and evening. Some sunshine Sunday with an isolated
shower possible. A stronger low pressure system is expected to
bring a widespread rainfall on Monday with occasional showers
lingering into midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
UPDATE...As of 720 PM EDT, outside of some patchy clouds across
the SW Adirondacks, skies remain clear. Gusty west/northwest
winds continue, especially within the Mohawk Valley/Capital
Region and Berkshires, where some gusts of 30-40 mph persist.

Secondary cold front will continue drifting southward this
evening, shifting winds into the northwest to north, with
decreasing gust magnitudes shortly after sunset.

Temperatures will drop rapidly later this evening with clear
skies and a very dry air mass in place, along with decreasing
winds.

[PREVIOUS 352 PM EDT]...Winds will be diminishing tonight,
while the sky remains mostly clear with high pressure
controlling the weather. The light winds and mostly clear sky
will allow for some radiational cooling. Lows in the upper 40s
to lower 50s with lower to mid 40s southern Adirondacks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Weakening upper energy in the Great Lakes and OH Valley will
track through our region with a weakening low level cold front
later Saturday afternoon and night. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will reach western areas late Saturday
afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny Saturday morning will become
partly sunny in the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s with some mid 80s mid Hudson Valley and mid 70s higher
terrain.

Any isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
should exit by daybreak Sunday and intervals of clouds and sun
trending to more sun than clouds through Sunday with perhaps an
isolated shower or thunderstorm in areas of terrain with the
weak cold front washing out over our region. Highs Sunday around
80 to mid 80s with upper 70s higher terrain.

Strong upper energy begins to approach from the Great Lakes and
OH Valley. Rapidly increasing warm advection, moisture advection
and low level jet energy will support increasing coverage of
showers and scattered thunderstorms Monday. Instability should
be marginal and low level forcing very broad, so severe
thunderstorm potential limited but not out of the question since
considerable deep layer shear will be present. Locally heavy
rain may be more of a threat but not expecting enough rain for
much of a flood threat. Highs Monday around 70 to mid 70s with
60s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A brief period of drying Tuesday with the exit of the one upper
impulse but another strong upper impulse in Canada dropping
through the Great Lakes Tuesday night, slowing its movement as
it tracks near or through our region the rest of the week.
There is considerable spread in the track and timing of this
system that would affect our region Wednesday through Friday.
Temperatures would be considerable cooler due to the upper low
being overhead, and more clouds than sun, with intervals of
showers, mainly during the day when the upper cold pool would
contribute to instability.

Temperatures Tuesday, with the isolated to scattered shower and
thunderstorm coverage, in the 70s to around 80 and some upper
60s southern Adirondacks. Highs Wednesday with the potential
clouds and rain, around 70 to mid 70s with 60s higher terrain.
Highs Thursday, with continued chances for rain, in the 60s and
around 60 higher terrain. Highs Friday, with potentially
decreasing coverage of showers, around 70 to mid 70s with mid to
upper 60s higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 00Z/Sunday, VFR conditions are expected through at least
early Saturday afternoon. High/mid level clouds will then
increase from west to east Saturday afternoon, with some showers
possible after 21Z/Saturday. There could even be a few rumbles
of thunder, however enough uncertainty to preclude mention of
thunder at this time.

Gusty west winds 10-15 KT with gusts of 25-30 KT will shift into
the northwest to north and quickly decrease to 5-10 KT shortly
after sunset, then become light/variable later this evening
through Saturday morning. Winds will then become south to
southwest at 5-10 KT Saturday afternoon.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...KL/Wasula