144
FXUS61 KALY 180532
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
132 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
With an upper level disturbance close to the region, it
will be partly to mostly cloudy for tonight into Saturday, with a
few spotty showers around.  Clearing skies and warmer temperatures
are expected on Sunday.  Above normal warmth is expected for much of
next week, with a chance for showers and thunderstorms returning by
the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 132 AM EDT...A sfc trough and an upper level disturbance
over west-central NY and southern Quebec continues to produce
lots of clouds and some showers mainly west of the forecast area
over central NY where a few hundredths have occurred on the NYS
Mesonet. We will keep a slight to low chance of a showers over
the western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and eastern
Catskills this morning. Temps have dropped off into the 50s
with some upper 40s mover the higher terrain. Some adjustments
to clouds...to increase to mostly cloudy this morning and the
timing of showers with this update. Lows will be in the upper
40s to mid 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday, the weak upper level disturbance to the west will
be passing across the region. Moisture with this feature looks
fairly limited and the best coverage of showers will mainly be
to the west and southwest. In addition, the slow moving coastal
low wobbling offshore may spread some moisture towards eastern
New England, although this activity looks to generally stay to
our east. Overall, while it looks fairly cloudy on Saturday,
precip looks spotty for our area, with just slight to low
chances across western, northern and far northeastern parts of
the area. Any showers look brief and light, and most spots
should be staying dry through the day. The clouds may hold temps
down a tad, but it will still be comfortable and seasonable,
with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.  Some clearing will
finally occur by Saturday night as both disturbances finally
starting moving away, with lows falling into the upper 40s to
mid 50s.

Upper level ridging will be nosing into the area from the
southwest for Sunday into Sunday night. This will allow for a
partly to mostly clear sky. With warm temps aloft, it will be
milder on Sunday, with highs well into the 70s in most spots.
Dewpoints will remain comfortable in the 50s. It will continue
to stay dry and quiet into Sunday night with a mostly clear sky
and temps in the 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Much warmer temperatures are expected through the long term
period.

A sharp upper level ridge will be in place over the area for
the start of the week. Strong southwest flow aloft will
allowing for warming temps, with 850 hpa temps going from +13 C
on Monday towards +16 C by the middle of the week. Valley highs
to look reach into the 80s, especially by Tues/Wed when highs
may reach the middle 80s across the area.

It should be rain-free for both Monday and Tuesday, although
dewpoints will be rising towards 60 by the middle of the week.
Skies look fairly sunny on Monday and Tuesday with the ridging
in place and no precip is expected.

By Wednesday into Thursday, the upper level ridge will be
starting to shift eastward as an upper level disturbance and
frontal boundary approaches from the west. This will allow for a
threat for showers and thunderstorms both days, especially in
the afternoon and evening hours. It`s too early to say how
strong storms will be, as it will depend on the front`s timing
and available instability, but we will continue to monitor.
Temps will continue to be warm in the 80s each day and it will
be a little of muggy side as well.

Behind the departing front, somewhat cooler and drier air will
move back into the region for Friday. Still, it looks warm with
temps well into the 70s. With an upper level trough overhead,
there will still be some clouds and perhaps a brief shower for
northern areas, but most areas should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Through 06z Sunday...Flying conditions are currently VFR and should
remain VFR through most if not all of the TAF period...Mid and high
clouds increase through the night with skies becoming SCT to BKN
overnight into the morning. Mid-level clouds between 4000-5000
expected to develop tomorrow and there could be a few showers
around, especially at ALB/GFL/POU, so have added VCSH groups to the
TAFs from late morning through mid to late afternoon tomorrow.
Showers will be isolated in nature, but if any showers move over one
of the terminals then brief MVFR vsby reductions would be possible.

Showers diminish tomorrow evening with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds
remaining through the end of the TAF period. With easterly flow,
there may be some borderline MVFR cigs developing at POU/PSF towards
the last few hours of the TAF valid period, but confidence on this
is low at this time.

Winds will be light and variable through mid-morning, increasing to
5-10 kt from the east from mid-morning through this evening. Winds
become light at 5 kt or less within a couple hours after sunset
tomorrow at ALB/POU/GFL, but remain easterly at 5-10 kt at PSF. Some
gusts up to around 15 kt are possible at PSF tomorrow afternoon
through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Wasula
NEAR TERM...Wasula
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Main