713
FXUS61 KALY 231947
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
347 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Sunny, dry and pleasant weather is expected on Friday. A few
showers are possible over the weekend with more widespread
rainfall expected early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Clear sky tonight as weak high pressure controls the weather.
Winds will be light but boundary layer winds from the west and
northwest will increase toward daybreak. So, some radiational
cooling as low level dew points dry through the night. Some
patchy fog is possible but with dew points falling, temperatures
may not reach dew points until quite late, so low level
saturation may be too brief for much fog. Lows in the 50s with
upper 40s to around 50 northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Modified surge of drier airmass in our region and gusty west to
northwest winds Friday, with a mostly sunny sky. Highs in the
upper 70s to lower 80s with a few mid 80s mid Hudson Valley and
lower to mid 70s higher terrain.

Weak upper energy tracks east out of the Great Lakes and OH
Valley later Saturday and Saturday night. Ahead of the upper
energy and warm advection, dry weather with lots of sun. Some
increasing clouds in the afternoon. Highs Saturday in the mid
70s to lower 80s. Scattered showers and a possible rumble of
thunder Saturday night with the leading edge of warm advection,
then intervals of clouds and sun on Sunday and mainly dry. An
isolated shower cannot be ruled out in the southern Adirondacks
and southern Green Mountains. Highs Sunday around 80 to mid 80s
with 70s higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong upper energy from the central and northern plains tracks
through the Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday. As the energy
approaches and tracks through our region by Monday, strengthening
warm advection, moisture advection and low level jet energy
will support increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
through the day Monday. Showers and thunderstorms continue
through Tuesday as the upper energy lifts northeast into eastern
Canada and the associated cold front tracks through our region.
Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 70s with 60s higher terrain.

Potential break in the showers with scattered to isolated
coverage Tuesday night, before another strong upper impulse
tracks out of the Great Lakes and OH Valley Wednesday into
Thursday with more chances for showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Potentially less instability Wednesday and
Thursday due to cooler low level temperatures in the region, so
more showery and just isolated thunderstorms.

Highs Wednesday in the 60s to lower 70s with some upper 50s
southern Adirondacks. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 60s
with around 60 southern Adirondacks.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 1800 UTC Friday...The cold front continues to move east
of New England early this afternoon with post frontal cold
advection to continue into tonight. VFR conditions the next 24
hours for KALB/KGFL/KPOU/KPSF with a small probability of
patchy or shallow radiational mist/fog between 0600-1100
UTC/FRI. The dry advection in the wake of the front should limit
this possibility. We did place 6SM BR at KPOU between 0700-1200
UTC.

The winds will be west to northwest at 5-12 KT this afternoon,
except at KGFL it will be south to southwest around 10 KT. The
winds will become light to calm between 00-06 UTC/FRI. The
winds increase from the west to southwest 8-15 KT in the late
morning into the afternoon with some gusts 20-25 KT at
KALB/KPSF.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...Wasula