901
FXUS61 KALY 050809
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
409 AM EDT Wed Jun 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Today will be another warm day with mainly dry conditions.
Then, our weather pattern will trend cooler and wetter for
Thursday through early next week with a cutoff upper low
expected to be located nearby.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Isolated showers in southern VT will move east and out of the
area through daybreak. Some patches of clouds in the mid Hudson
Valley, western New England and the eastern Catskills to
Schoharie Valley. Very few clouds outside of those areas and
sunshine this morning into the afternoon, along with daytime
mixing will help to minimize any widespread clouds much of the
day.

Some isolated to scattered showers and storms still possible
this afternoon. Surface based instability due to daytime
heating and any localized convergence spots will support the
isolated to scattered activity. Highs in the mid to upper 80s
with around 80 higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The leading edge of showers and scattered thunderstorms
approaches our region this evening. A leading upper impulse
will track through the southern periphery of a developing upper
cut off low and just south of our region toward daybreak and
through Thursday morning. The associated low level jet forcing
and convergence, will track just south of our region and an
area of showers and scattered thunderstorms with locally heavy
rain will track across areas south of the Capital Region.
Lighter rain will extend north of those showers and
thunderstorms Thursday morning.

Then, a sharp low level wind shift from south southeast to west
southwest and associated forcing will track through areas from
the eastern Catskills and Schoharie Valley, through the Capital
Region, Berkshires and southern VT and points north. Boundary
layer temperatures and moisture will drop behind the line or
band of convection, providing a little more forcing. Instability
will be marginal as midlevel lapse rates will not be steep but
there will be some instability.  A line or band of showers and
scattered thunderstorms, some strong with locally gusty winds
and heavy rain, will track through the region during the
afternoon, exiting by evening.

There could be some breaks in the clouds from time to time
Thursday, outside of the showers and storms but considerable
clouds through the day Thursday, again, with just a few breaks
in the clouds. Highs Thursday in the mid to upper 70s with near
80 mid Hudson Valley and around 70 higher elevations.

Considerable clouds Thursday night with a few breaks in the
clouds from time to time as showers become more isolated to
scattered with the slow approach of the upper cut off low. Some
breaks in the clouds into Friday morning, but as the western
periphery of the upper cut off low slowly approaches and the
associated cooling aloft, clouds, showers and isolated to
scattered thunderstorms redevelop and increase in coverage in
the afternoon, with the instability. Highs Friday in the mid to
upper 70s with upper 60s higher terrain.

Coverage of showers and thunderstorms decrease again, Friday
night and a few breaks in the clouds once again. Boundary layer
temperatures slowly cool as the upper low continues to slowly
approach. Lows by early Saturday morning in the mid to upper 50s
with around 50 higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Unsettled conditions continue through much of the extended forecast
period as eastern New York and western New England remain under the
influence of the aforementioned low pressure system...

By Saturday morning, the upper low looks to become settled to the
north and west of the region along the southern border of Ontario
and Quebec, overhead the northeast Great Lakes. Throughout the
weekend and into early next week, the system as a whole doesn`t look
to make much in the way of eastward progress, allowing broad,
cyclonic flow to remain dominant across the Northeast. As a result,
numerous rounds of showers and possibly some embedded rumbles of
thunder remain possible through at least Monday as moisture is
continually reinforced through southwesterly flow and large scale
ascent is supported by ongoing divergence aloft and upper energy
pulses rotating about its southern periphery. The challenge with
this forecast is identifying the greatest likelihood for said
showers and possible thunderstorms given the persistent timing and
evolutionary discrepancies within the medium to long range models.
At this time, showers and embedded rumbles of thunder look to favor
diurnal hours where differential heating will aid in increasing
instability. Therefore, the greatest PoPs exist during peak heating
hours Saturday and Sunday. With these PoPs, maintained slight chance
to chance of thunder until confidence increases in this element of
the forecast.

Additional showers will be possible Monday as the upper low finally
looks to shift further east. While there continues to be some level
of uncertainty in the terminal behavior of the system that is
impacting end time of showers, general consensus points to
conditions becoming primarily dry by Monday evening/night as
mid/upper-level ridging begins to build in from the west. The
remainder of the extended period looks to start the return to dry,
warm conditions across the region.

Speaking of temperatures, with the upper-low inflicting a cooler
airmass in comparison to recent days, high temperatures Saturday
through Monday generally look to range from the mid/upper 60s
(pockets of low 60s at highest peaks) in higher terrain regions to
low/mid 70s in valley areas. Low temperatures throughout this same
time will generally be in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s. Starting
Tuesday, temperatures begin to go on a bit of a warming trend with
highs anticipated to increase to the upper 60s to upper 70s. Lows
Tuesday night will fall to the low to upper 50s before Wednesday`s
highs rise to the mid/upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 06z Thursday...All terminals currently report VFR
conditions which are anticipated to persist through the 06z TAF
period. As an upper-level disturbance begins to approach today,
clouds will increase across the region, though much of the
period will only see high/mid-level FEW/SCT coverage until
later in the period when ceilings form at higher altitudes for
KALB and KGFL and in the lower levels at KPOU and KPSF. Guidance
keeps any showers out of terminal vicinities through the 06z
cycle, so no need for any PROB30 groups or TEMPOs with this
update.

Winds will remain light to calm overnight tonight, gradually
increasing to sustained speeds of 7-11 kt out of the
south/southwest throughout the day today.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant