295
FXUS61 KALY 281541
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1141 AM EDT Tue May 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, less humid air will be moving into
the region today. However, an approaching upper level disturbance
will return the threat for scattered showers to the region again for
late today, with a chance continuing into Wednesday and Thursday as
well. Behind this departing system, comfortable and dry weather is
expected for much of the late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 11am, forecast remains on track with the leading edge of
the upper level trough and associated cold pool aloft advancing
eastward across eastern NY into western New England today. A
line of showers has developing along the leading edge of the
cold pool into the southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley. In
addition, a increased cloud coverage canopy is also spreading
eastward but some partial breaks of sun should return this
afternoon as mid-level moisture dries out and deeper mixing
ensues beneath the steepening lapse rates. However, generally
expecting mostly to partly cloudy skies as temperatures exceed
their respective convective temperature.

Speaking of steeper mid-level lapse rates, a few isolated to
scattered non-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
thanks to lapse rates reaching 6.5 - 7C/km under the incoming
cold pool. SPC has outlined our entire area in general thunder
which matches with our expectation. Some brief downpours are
possible under any short-lived storm.

Otherwise, the deeper boundary layer mixing will keep winds
breezy with southwesterly to westerly gusts up to 25kts
possible, especially in the Mohawk Valley due to channeled
flow. With mild air still in place aloft (10C ALY 12 UTC
sounding), afternoon high temperatures should reach into the mid
to upper 70s with even low 80s in the mid- Hudson Valley.
Cooler temperatures in the southern Adirondacks and southern
Greens thanks to increased cloud coverage only reaching into the
60s.

Previous discussion...Even though the day will start off dry,
there will be some scattered showers and possible t-storms
developing by the afternoon and early evening hours, as a large
upper level trough starts to approach from the west. Skies will
become partly to mostly cloudy for late in the day and there
will be some scattered showers around. Most of the precip should
be short- lived and brief, but a quick downpour will be
possible for late in the day. With the lowering dewpoints and
limited instability, no severe storms are expected, but a rumble
of thunder can`t be ruled out within the heaviest showers.
Still, most areas won`t see much precip today and the best
chance will be for areas north and west of the Capital Region.

In addition, the decent mixing and lingering pressure gradient
will allow for another breezy day. Westerly winds may gusts as
high as 25 mph during the afternoon hours, especially within the
Mohawk Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the upper level trough overhead, there will be a continued
threat for a few passing showers for tonight, although coverage
will probably decrease with the loss of daytime heating. Still,
the moist cyclonic flow will allow for plenty of clouds,
especially in the high terrain areas and a few light showers
(mainly northern areas). Temps will generally be in the 50s for
tonight.

On Wednesday, another disturbance rotating around the upper
level trough will continue to allow for more diurnally-forced
showers and possible t-storms. Based on the expected track of
this upper level feature, southern areas will have the highest
coverage of precip (with areas probably south of the area even
more likely to see wet weather on Wednesday). Will continue to
mention a chance for a shower on Wednesday. There may just
enough instability for a rumble of thunder again, but it looks
even more isolated than Tuesday, with the best chance probably
south of the area. Otherwise, skies will be partly to mostly
cloudy once again. Temps look cooler than recent days due to the
lower heights and cooler temps aloft, so highs will be in the
60s to low 70s across the area. With the upper level trough
still nearby, will keep the threat for a shower into Wednesday
night with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

Models suggest the upper level trough will remain over the
Northeast on Thursday into Thursday night as well, as another
disturbance rotates southward into the trough out of eastern
Canada. This may cutoff as well, keeping the feature in place
over the area. However, moisture will be more limited, so any
spotty showers for Thursday into Thursday night will be limited
to just southern and eastern areas. Any precip looks very brief
and light and many areas will be staying dry, as some drier air
does try to work its way into the area from the west. Skies will
be partly cloudy on Thursday and mostly clear on Thursday night.
It will continue to be cool thanks to the lower heights in
place, with 60s to low 70s once again on Thursday and mainly
40s on Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper-level troughing departs eastward by Friday morning, with
narrow but high-amplitude upper ridge and associated subsidence and
surface high pressure expected to build in through the weekend. Dry
weather with mostly sunny skies are therefore expected Friday and
Saturday, while there is lower confidence in the large-scale pattern
for the far side of the weekend and into next week. The most likely
outcome at this lead time will see dry and warm conditions continue
through Sunday and much of Monday before an upper-level shortwave
approaches from the Midwest and Ohio Valley, bringing chances for
rain showers into Tuesday.

Temperatures through the period look to trend upward each day. With
cool northwest low-level flow in place on Friday, temperatures
remain near to below normal, reaching afternoon highs in the 60s in
high terrain and low to mid 70s at lower elevations, before dipping
to overnight lows in the 40s across the region thanks to efficient
radiative cooling. As ridging builds in, temperatures warm a few
degrees each afternoon, reaching highs on Monday in the 70s in high
terrain and low to mid 80s at lower elevations. Overnight lows
similarly trend toward more mild values, with temperatures Monday
night only falling into the 50s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12Z Wednesday...MVFR cigs are quickly lifting to VFR levels
behind the cold front progressing to the southeast across the
region. Clearing skies late in the overnight period allowed for
radiation fog/mist to develop ahead of the front where low-level
moisture is higher, with MVFR or possibly IFR vsbys yet possible at
POU through 13Z Tue, after which the increasing solar angle and dry
advection will quickly erode any remaining patches. VFR conditions
should then prevail through much of the period, with sky cover
increasing into the afternoon as another round of rain showers
affects northern terminals including ALB/GFL/PSF, though no vsby/cig
restrictions are currently anticipated during showers. With enhanced
cloud cover and lowering cigs later in the period, conditions trend
toward MVFR at ALB/GFL/PSF after 03-09Z Wed.

Southwest winds at 5-10 kt this morning will increase to 8-12 kt
with gusts of 15-20 kt after 15Z Tue at all terminals. Gusts
continue through 21Z Tue-03Z Wed as winds turn out of the west,
before speeds decrease to 5 kt or less out of the west to northwest.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis/Speciale
NEAR TERM...Frugis/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Picard
AVIATION...Picard